Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

Yup - Max Pain is like a magnet - the further away the price is from it, the less pull it has.

I don’t see any how there could possibly be any problem with demand for Q1 - Tesla will sell every unit it can ship to Europe and China in Q1, and there is still plenty of demand in North America for the 3.

Yep. Let's not forget N.A. is only ~ 50% of demand, so the other 50% is sitting overseas waiting in reservations. Close to 100k reservations (although including MRs) was fulfilled so far in N.A. Considering some Q1 sales in N.A., there's no way 7k/week production won't be sold entirely in Q1. In Q2 they might have to release MR(to China/Europe) or maybe SR to keep the sales going. At that point, we'll have ~50% of the initial total reservations to fill not considering any new demand.

 

[MXWing]

Suddenly seeing a lot of predictions here about Tesla going down to 300 again after Q4 earnings. What will it take never to see 300 again? Three profitable quarters in a row? Four? Twenty? Do you guys think we will be stuck in this channel forever, regardless of the fundamentals changing?

Nobody actually knows what it's gonna do. Calling another range-bound drop to 300 is the cynical/easy prediction which could turn out to be the case, but my own strategy here is based on capturing the squeeze and never attempting to swing trade the perceived highs. Could take off any time

The trend is your friend... until it is not.

300 is actually quite good if that’s perceived as worst case. It was 250 not all that long ago.

The real reason why I see 300 is of two possibilities:

1.) Macro cloud and investor confidence around that is real. Tesla is a luxury good.

2.) The “analysts” can set the goal posts to anything they want. On a stock that is already trading at high multiples.

EPS of .001 is a win for Tesla compared to the history as a whole. When Tesla devastatingly crushes the low of 0.77 some idiot says Tesla failed because they were $3 versus $4.

I think this range bounding ends when Tesla is in the S&P500 and these idiots are forced to buy Tesla as part of their index funds.

With that said, f**k no am I going to sell shares with the expectation that it just dips to 300 where I can rebuy.

I have a set of shares I am willing to buy/sell, short calls against but the majority of my TSLA is core holdings which I will not touch.

I’m not playing that game where I am buying back shares more expensive than I bough them for. Happened once when I had to buy at 280.

I’ll hedge with dotm puts, long VIX or short QQQ but not touching my shares.

 

[Etna]

The tide is turning.

Corporate investors pile into "Tesla wannabes": ANALYSIS-Corporate investors pile into electric vehicle startups

 

[avoigt]

It may sound like a small one but its indeed a huge one.

Founders should never be confused with CEOs. Elon does not want a title for good reasons.... because he does not need one. If he walks through the shop floor people will greed him and appreciate him. Have a look at the videos how workers approach him. He is human they can touch him and talk to him. He is the reason why they are there.

A CEO is just a Manager and you can get one for money. Its cheap. You buy them on the market. They are for sale.

A founder has a vision and is on a mission. You can't buy a mission and a vision. You don't get them on the market and they are never on sale but a rare species. They are priceless.

You do not want to compete with a founder!

Alp Soycengiz‏ @Alpsoy66
Replying to @Real_John_D @EcoHeliGuy @Starlight_Energ
It is indeed the case: @elonmusk is the longest serving CEO in the auto industry among major companies.

Alp Soycengiz on Twitter

 

[M3Rider]

The tide is turning.

Corporate investors pile into "Tesla wannabes": ANALYSIS-Corporate investors pile into electric vehicle startups

Dang. "Boeing and Airbus are both working on electric planes."

Elon said to Joe Rogan he had some designs. Wondering if they will be wasted by the time he's done dealing with the cars.

 

[Curt Renz]

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

In her follow up "Ask Me Anything" session GM CEO Mary Barra will wonder whether (Tesla) Bears crap in the woods...

Does a bear short in the woods? Some bears short on the toilet.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Dang. "Boeing and Airbus are both working on electric planes."

Elon said to Joe Rogan he had some designs. Wondering if they will be wasted by the time he's done dealing with the cars.

Depends: does the roadster count?

 

[tivoboy]

I guess it was the union workforce that killed the deal after all.

Tesla is not going to buy GM factory because of union employees, says GM CEO

 

[ZeApelido]

Just an observation: I worked for a prominent Chinese company in their main U.S. office. About 1,000 employees, mostly Chinese.

Model 3's alone account for over 1% of the cars. This has happened just in the last 6 months. I imagine many/most of the new cars purchased in that time frame here were Tesla's.

Chinese love Tesla.

 

[AlexS]

It may sound like a small one but its indeed a huge one.

Founders should never be confused with CEOs. Elon does not want a title for good reasons.... because he does not need one. If he walks through the shop floor people will greed him and appreciate him. Have a look at the videos how workers approach him. He is human they can touch him and talk to him. He is the reason why they are there.

A CEO is just a Manager and you can get one for money. Its cheap. You buy them on the market. They are for sale.

A founder has a vision and is on a mission. You can't buy a mission and a vision. You don't get them on the market and they are never on sale but a rare species. They are priceless.

You do not want to compete with a founder!

Alp Soycengiz‏ @Alpsoy66
Replying to @Real_John_D @EcoHeliGuy @Starlight_Energ
It is indeed the case: @elonmusk is the longest serving CEO in the auto industry among major companies.

Alp Soycengiz on Twitter

Well to be honest Elon is not the founder, founders are Eberhard and Tarpenning. Elon joined later, after test driving T-Zero and funding Series A round. But of course he have all the rights to be called founder because Tesla is where it is mostly because of him and JB.

 

[30seconds]

Yep. Let's not forget N.A. is only ~ 50% of demand, so the other 50% is sitting overseas waiting in reservations. Close to 100k reservations (although including MRs) was fulfilled so far in N.A. Considering some Q1 sales in N.A., there's no way 7k/week production won't be sold entirely in Q1. In Q2 they might have to release MR(to China/Europe) or maybe SR to keep the sales going. At that point, we'll have ~50% of the initial total reservations to fill not considering any new demand.

Demand Ex-US for $40k car going to be much higher than 50%

 

[Smokey4141]

i'm not sure if you actually need this explained to you, or if you are just a short itching to take potshots at real investors whenever you can .. but let's give you the benefit of the doubt for a second. we are accusing firms of betting against Tesla, then deliberately moving the expectation bar upwards beyond what even the bulls think is realistically possible, so that no matter what results Tesla announces, the short-selling firm can put a pundit on TV to declare the numbers a disappointing "miss" and watch the stock tank.

this is the exact thing that happened with the Q4 delivery numbers. Before they were released, the bulls here on this forum were registering their best estimates mostly between 52k and 62k Model 3s delivered, with most of us seeming to agree that anything over 60k would be a good result. Tesla ended up delivering 63k, but it was declared a significant miss. As far as I could tell, the only people "expecting" more than that were groups who were financially invested in Tesla's failure, implying that these expectations were disingenuous at best.

And Cathie Wood thinks the SP is STILL going to $4000, ~no matter what~....
So there's a firm that's betting ~for~ Tesla, no??
And nobody's telling people to write the SEC over "moving the expectations bar" on that one, are they?

People think certain stocks are under-valued, or over-valued, every single day....
I just don't understand why anybody thinks Tesla is special in that regard, either way...

I'm sure you'd agree that analysts - pros and amateurs - are welcome to make their forecasts, are they not?
You can believe them, or not, it's a free choice....

So.....sorry, but I just think telling people to write the SEC because some folks have different estimates than others do....is just ridiculous...
I think it's kinda nuts, to be honest.... And that was all I was saying...

And for the record, I had a very ~low~ estimate in Troy's spreadsheet.... And clearly, I was wrong...
I'm still kinda curious where all those extra cars actually ~are~, since they haven't been registered to legitimate buyers, but, as long as Tesla says they produced them, I'm sure it's all good.....

 

[Smokey4141]

The problem comes when someone speaks out of both sides of their mouth. You can't logically set low price targets for a stock that are in direct contradiction to your financial estimates for the same company. Such activities are blatant attempts at manipulation that deserve every bit of scorn that they receive here and elsewhere.

Ummm, have you ever turned on CNBC?? You'll see talking heads doing exactly that..... Allll the friggin' time....

That said...scorn? Yeah, I'm with you there....
But I just think telling people to write the SEC because some folks have different estimates than others do....is just ridiculous...
I think it's kinda nuts, to be honest.... And that was all I was saying...

 

[Remus]

Space X laying off 10%
CNBC link
SpaceX plans to lay off 10% of its workforce

 

[RobStark]

Right, I clicked the link. So I was wondering if there was an article somewhere (maybe in the premium version) that the general public version of B only had the headline of. If not, there was no reason to have a link. I even tried Googling the title keywords to find recent news to no avail.

So, it's moving due to this thing that we made a headline of with no supporting data?

Is this the article you are looking for?

Tesla drops interest in GM plants because of UAW, Barra says

 

[Smokey4141]

Because those making the highest revenue estimate are those with some of the lowest SP targets - which isn't really logical, is it? The one bunch has a PT of $200 and they're predicting $7b revenue. How can this PT possibly be achievable with such revenues, and likely good profits?

Ummm, compare Tesla's P/E or P/S or EV to ANY other automotive company out there....
They ~are~ an automotive company, are they not?

I'm shocked, every day, that it's not a $30 stock.....
Even ~IF~ the sell their a$$'s off.... Which as of Jan 1, they now aren't....

 

[Smokey4141]

The second-highest expected valuation, from Needham, comes from a company that currently has a "sell" recommendation on TSLA.
Tesla stock falls after Needham downgrades to underperform
They have been totally silent on having upgraded their revenue and income estimate, but maintain the "underperform".

I imagine the same is true for Canaccord, I just happened to remember the Needham downgrade.

No mystery to me... It ~is~ overvalued....
Please compare Tesla's P/E or P/S or EV to ANY other automotive company out there....
They ~are~ an automotive company, are they not?

I'm shocked, every day, that it's not a $30 stock.....
Even ~IF~ the sell their a$$'s off.... Which as of Jan 1, they now aren't....

 

[30seconds]

It’s been so long since we a t***l here

 

[SpaceCash]

Y'all hear something?