I've heard about Elon's margin calls before and I would be interested in more details and/or links about this.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Don't have time to dig up the info again, but the short summary is, the "Elon loses everything at $230" thing is false. Not least of which because only a minority of his Tesla stock is currently collateral. I don't recall the exact figures, but the real problematic number for him is somewhere under $100.
Krugerrand
Meow
Correct. NUMMI came as an empty shell and no employees. Largest press line purchased used, separately, and from Michigan if I recall correctly.
Agree!
Cars in general are much more expensive in Germany for example the $35K-$40K range:
- you are getting BMW 1,2 and some low config. 3 for that range
- Audi A1,A2,med. config A3, low config A4
- Japanese, Korean mid-Sized
- lowest config A-Class, C-Class Mercedes
- etc....
Many countries around the World have high import duties, so $40K is cheap.
M3 demand should be huge, assuming EV infrastructure is there, and govt. policy is appropriately supportive!
pz1975
Active Member
Agree. Was blocked a long time ago.
BOBTHEJOCKEY
Member
I think that Gordon Johnson is a paid basher. I bet he works for an oil company.
Looks like we are playing a different game with different expectations.
I am currently 100% in TSLA, and hope to sell 20% if it hits $600 after Earning call.
Same here. You've heard the term Tesla stretch? Well this is TSLA stretch. I've never bought this much of any one stock before. I'm not worried about diversification right now because Tesla has to succeed at the mission. If I'm wrong and Tesla fails, we'll probably all be living in an uncomfortably warm Waterworld/Mad Max/Idiocracy hellscape and using oil for currency by the time I'm eligible to withdraw my IRA funds.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
No idea about SpaceX.
In general all companies have a lot of "fat". So, laying off is generally ok. But the real issue is how do they select who to lay off - and how do they ensure people with needed knowledge are retained. There will be a tendency on the part of managers to keep yes men and lay off others i.e. companies keep the fat and throw the good bits.
One good thing is - I like it when people are laid off when the market is good - so they can find alternate jobs easily.
Smokey4141
Banned
I agree with you, but probably not how you want me to... LOL
But yes, there are crazy estimates out there every friggin day... For everything...
How many times have we seen a rally "out of nowhere", on "news" of "a China trade deal"....
Only to be F-ed the next day when somebody else says something else....
It's ALL media spread false information....
My original point wasn't that bull$hit gets put out there.....it absolutely is..
It was in regard to somebody telling people they should send letters to the SEC...
And they're nuts if they think the SEC cares about high/low estimates, that somebody else objects to.......
Again, just silly...
As an aside, I think we ALL know that media finds a "reason" for everything, no matter WHAT happens...
And in this case, the stock sold down afterwards, and "missed estimates" was just a lazy way to report a "reason"...
If you asked me, I think it was a reaction to Q4 results actually looking pretty good, but, there were no Q1 estimates from Tesla, and investors might have noticed that, and said, "hmmmmm"....
But, the stock's done nothing but climb since then, so apparently all good...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
If you see CEO salaries in the US, you will appreciate that they may be for sale, but are definitely not cheap. Both in terms of how much money they make for themselves and cost the company.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not even that. Last week, it was generally in the vicinity of (310 ?), but in the last 30 minutes went up.
Hi Jeff,
If it does get out there, maybe someone picks up a phone. You never know and as they say:
There might be something there that wasn’t there before.
This would be the most powerful couple in the solar system.
QZ.com : China making non-EV factories practically impossible to build.
Lol at classified prominent Chinese company with 1000 employees that are mostly Chinese.
What else do other Tencent employees drive? Luxury brands like BMW, Mercedes?
Tencent, btw unless changed has a 5% stake in Tesla.
Last number I saw backed up with some actual analysis from the relevant filings was $180.
Not going to give us the play by play? ;-)
If FactSet's service is competitive with what the other 3 services offer, which I see as implicit in your comment, it wouldn't make sense for their data set of analysts to include only 9 analysts, vs. 20+ found for the other services.
There's are two main possibilities I see as to how a "delivery miss" was attributed last week to Tesla's numbers based on the average of only 9 analysts in their data set,
1) only 9 of the 20+ analysts whose earnings and revenue numbers are known to be available ALSO made delivery and production forecast numbers available
2) FactSet cherry-picked among the 20+ analysts production and delivery numbers a group of only 9 analysts to game what the "consensus" number would be, and create the false impression of a miss by Tesla.
The first possibility does not seem likely to me... how does an analyst forecast a revenue or earnings number without forecasting vehicles sold? I don't remember ever seeing an analysts report that did not include such a relatively big picture level of detail as units sold.
There may be some alternatives I'm not thinking of, but, the "consensus" number from only 9 analysts, which was widely reported as a Tesla "miss" last week looks very suspect to me. Fact Checking, more smoke for the SEC to look at? The difference between 20+ analysts and 9 is not subtle.
Maybe... I think in N.A. Tesla managed to squeeze ~50% of overall reservations to go into high-trim. It makes sense that more people would buy cheaper, but I think among core supporters many "overspent" for multiple reasons -
1. Long wait, so buy whatever is available & be done with the wait
2. $7.5k tax credit close to being phased out, so get more features upfront with a discount
3. Support the mission even if it costs you
4. States with winter conditions - RWD doesn't quite cut it, so have to upgrade to AWD
5. AP is a cool toy, a must have for geeks, who else has it?
With Europe and China, there could be some differences- specifically the production rate is stable enough, so I think you can get your non-SR car within 2 quarters - less uncertainty. Don't know about incentives & possible expirations; winter conditions should apply; given the increased delivery speed I think it's possible that smaller % than in N.A. would go for a higher trim, which is why I estimate on the low side - 7k/week*12 weeks=84k - this is less than 100k reservations(including ~14k reservation MRs in Q4 - my calc for ~100k/14k Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable; the only mistake I made there is I didn't notice the 455k number was for 2017, not 2018. But I believe reservations would not change significantly, probably not more than +10%) in N.A. and some number subtracted per N.A. deliveries in Q1 2019. This car should be more popular in Europe than in U.S.; therefore I hope the same will apply to high trims and in Q1 the numbers of non-N.A. sales would be not much less than what was sold in N.A.
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
