Perhaps, but I'll reiterate that this would only involve his committed shares. Musk's loans collateralized by his Tesla shares are only 25% of his total shares. He doesn't even come close to going bankrupt at that point.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Perhaps, but I'll reiterate that this would only involve his committed shares. Musk's loans collateralized by his Tesla shares are only 25% of his total shares. He doesn't even come close to going bankrupt at that point.
So... You're saying there's a chance?!
sundaymorning
Active Member
Smokey, whatever you’re smoking you need to mass produce it, I can tell it’s some damn potent stuff.
Pezpunk
Active Member
i'm glad i had the personal integrity to grant you the benefit of the doubt at first, but i now must thank you for proving yourself not worth responding to further in such short order. saves me a lot of potential wasted effort. have a nice day!
Pezpunk
Active Member
i doubt constantly quoting the boat's altitude would be very illuminating.
Good job here!
Now imagine rump up 4!
Tesla Vehicle Ramp Cycles Getting Shorter (Charts) | CleanTechnica
Now imagine rump up 4!
Tesla Vehicle Ramp Cycles Getting Shorter (Charts) | CleanTechnica
It’d prove pretty poor for giving useful information unless that information was very, very bad.
As of November 2016, Musk's stake in SpaceX was 54% of the company. Have never seen him lower his stake at Tesla, though not impossible, doubt he's lowered his SpaceX stake.
Articles last week on SpaceX's current funding round reported that a recent sale of shares in this funding round implied a valuation of SpaceX over $30 Billion.
If this is all correct, Elon's SpaceX holdings are worth over $16 billion.
I'm quite confident the whole margin call assertion is just another false narrative... at $220, at $100, at virtually any price. Elon has personally spent some money... tens of millions for sure, quite possibly $100s of millions. I doubt he's spent a billion personally, but even if so, SpaceX would have to plummet in value and/or he'd have to have spent something like $15 billion in things of virtually no collateral value, for any Tesla stock price to be any kind of margin issue.
I'd place this "margin call" scenario in the same rectangular file as, "since they lose money on every car they make, going from 100,000 S/X to 500,000 Model 3s just means bigger losses."
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Yup, Netflix working on a fairy tale show about Mr Neural Net Vs his foe, a yogic called Lithe Lidar. Based on the new Bandersnatch format. A trillion possibilities but the star always wins...
As Falcon 9 production rate slows (more reuse, less first stage building, mostly second stage and fairing building, and perhaps with some luck they won't need very many new fairings either) they can reduce the Falcon 9 staff. With engineering of Crew Dragon coming to a close, some may be surplus to needs there too.
They appear to be abandoning carbon fiber for BFR/BFS, and going to stainless steel, so a number of people are likely surplus there as well.
They will be hiring more stainless steel specialists, etc to fill in roles for BFR/BFS, and they may begin to hire (though perhaps not quite yet) for satellite production.
While some skills are transferable, not all are. Sometimes you have too many of job description X.
So this shouldn't be read as financial straits, but smart management and trimming unnecessary jobs to make room for other necessary ones.
Please read carefully. There is a difference between 'its cheap' and 'they are cheap'.
Does anybody know when the quota system mentioned in the link becomes effective (I thought it already was)? That’s basically free money for Tesla, and I guess the Chinese government wont let the other car manufacturers game the system. Just this alone could be billions of profit yearly for Tesla.
Please remind us when it arrives in Zeebrugge. I’m planning on trying to take pictures when it arrives/unloads.
I like your thinking of positive news > negative. no deal brexit could be negative, and i don't yet see how the US-China trade war can be settled any time soon, while time is running out for Trump forcing him to increase tariff. it's a straight on ideology collision between capitalism vs. communism, Chinese communist government is never going to give up government-owned companies and their control of everything. I fear Tesla will be caught in the middle.
that said, my thinking is we see $300 before $380, but definitely anything is possible, even $400+ if Q1 estimate is good. and i could totally be wrong. if it goes up great, I still have 20% in TSLA.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
A third, I think similarly likely possibility is that the business press picked the estimate and consensus most unfavorable to Tesla.
Remember that a key aggregation source of the business press actually lied about Tesla's Q3 delivery numbers (falsely reporting it as a "miss"), which was only "corrected" hours later, by which time the "miss" was already widely reported.
Anyway, with the available evidence this is how far we can go.
Retail investors can get wiped out if they play with options or overleverage on margin but Tesla itself isn't going anywhere for the long term.
I understand WHY Musk does or says the things that he does but at no point was Tesla 9 weeks from death. Bears grooming each other knows SP was no lower than 250 the entire time burning up theta on their long-dated puts. LOL
Ellison by himself is worth half of Tesla's current market cap. if Elon needs a few billion, he can find it.
Tencent will grow their stake if Elon really asks.
Elon could have gotten his 420 buyout if he really wanted to follow through. Musk has that star power to pull it off.
I understand WHY Musk does or says the things that he does but at no point was Tesla 9 weeks from death. Bears grooming each other knows SP was no lower than 250 the entire time burning up theta on their long-dated puts. LOL
Ellison by himself is worth half of Tesla's current market cap. if Elon needs a few billion, he can find it.
Tencent will grow their stake if Elon really asks.
Elon could have gotten his 420 buyout if he really wanted to follow through. Musk has that star power to pull it off.
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Yeah that bit in Elon's interview puzzles me still. Tesla started the year 2018 with 3 Bn in the bank. Even if we extrapolate their worst ever quarterly loss of 700m, how is that "single digit weeks" of life left? He is either over dramatizing or we are missing something.
Thoughts about the ER and SP movement.
We are approaching an important decision point in the SP with ER happening early next month. The playbook shorts and bears did play in the last 7 quarters did repeat and work well for them to the extend that the SP was moving sideways within the barrier of $250 - $388.
In most cases once production numbers went out and later the ER the SP went down after he went up before that events. That happened when we had mixed results or good results. Good results have been either declared as bad results as for instance with the famous "delivery miss" that I hope the SEC will look into as its an another prove of illegal market manipulation.
The media is always keen to report something sensational about Tesla and happily reported on a "called miss" and that together with uncertainty kept potential new and long term bulls out of the stock. Those large conservative investors are the ones I believe are needed to get us above $388.Those people with deep pockets have serious money from investors who are conservative and Tesla did not qualify yet for them as the future is in their opinion unclear.
After a positive ER and hopefully soon an addition to the S&P that sentiment will shift but its not guaranteed that this will happen next month. Tesla needs to have some quarters of solid profits in the past and uncertainty that solid profits for the future will happen need to decrease.
Right now we experience the SP going up again within that barrier and I predict and assume it will go to $360 next week. Thats very much within the playbook of shorts and bears. They will try to control the SP at $360 for several reasons one is that they need some breathing space up to $388 and $28 is not a lot but at least a buffer.
The more close the SP is to $388 the better the chances that a real surprise within the ER numbers will lift it above in unknown territory. Once that happens there will be no return. It will be tested though but if confirmed off we go.
That leaves the question what a real surprise is. Obviously we need positive results with no shadow but lets not make the mistake to believe shorts and bears will take them and declare defeat. They will do what they did well in the past and construct a negative within the expected positive results. The question though is not if they will do it but if the large investors waiting at the sidelines will believe in it or decide to continue waiting a quarter or not. Its all about them and not about more or less short in Tesla. Short do not dictate the SP they can only influence infliction points and that only works if weak bulls get nervous and get out.
So what we are talking about here is the fabrication of an alternative reality and if the media pumps it out again and large investors believe in it and keep waiting. If that happened according to the playbook that worked in the last 7 quarters then next month will be just another failed break out attempt.
Looking back most of this fabricated false narrative made me laugh about but obviously many investors are not informed as the average person here is and bought the FUD as real. Its hard for me to imagine what the next narrative will be but they have been quite creative in the past and again it worked out for them.
Working out BTW means they lost money all the way as confirmed from Ighor. Most of them reached a point where they can't back up as its all about their reputation now and not any more about money. If you lose money you just lose money (from your investors) but once you lost your reputation you lost everything.
Looking at the bright side most FUD that has been used in the past is now 'used FUD' and that is hard to reuse as its been declared wrong by facts already. Assuming that no sticking new negative can be played because its all used already even just okay positive numbers at the ER could convince the large investors to press the button and go in. Faster than we all realize the $388 could fall and technical investors declare a strong buy combined with shorts and bears go out be it temporarily or for the long run. The media has a new sensational report about Tesla which is Tesla looks like to succeed and all of a sudden you have strong positive momentum.
That combination will release quite a firework. If you add the band width we are in to $388 the next strong resistance would be then at $526.
Both scenarios are in my opinion equally likely and its today not at all clear what will happen after the ER.
What is clear to me though is that its just a question of months until the $388 falls and the SP jumps or moves continuously to a new ATH. Only a black swan event can change the overall picture and it does not make sense to discuss those as they are not predictable.
For clarity such an event would be IMO a major earthquake damaging Fremont severely but not a recession which I don't see coming anyway.
2018 was a year where Tesla did prove that the SP evaluation is justified and all down movements has been successfully defeated.
2019 will be a year where a new ATH is build and a new group of investors are moving in for the long run.
We are approaching an important decision point in the SP with ER happening early next month. The playbook shorts and bears did play in the last 7 quarters did repeat and work well for them to the extend that the SP was moving sideways within the barrier of $250 - $388.
In most cases once production numbers went out and later the ER the SP went down after he went up before that events. That happened when we had mixed results or good results. Good results have been either declared as bad results as for instance with the famous "delivery miss" that I hope the SEC will look into as its an another prove of illegal market manipulation.
The media is always keen to report something sensational about Tesla and happily reported on a "called miss" and that together with uncertainty kept potential new and long term bulls out of the stock. Those large conservative investors are the ones I believe are needed to get us above $388.Those people with deep pockets have serious money from investors who are conservative and Tesla did not qualify yet for them as the future is in their opinion unclear.
After a positive ER and hopefully soon an addition to the S&P that sentiment will shift but its not guaranteed that this will happen next month. Tesla needs to have some quarters of solid profits in the past and uncertainty that solid profits for the future will happen need to decrease.
Right now we experience the SP going up again within that barrier and I predict and assume it will go to $360 next week. Thats very much within the playbook of shorts and bears. They will try to control the SP at $360 for several reasons one is that they need some breathing space up to $388 and $28 is not a lot but at least a buffer.
The more close the SP is to $388 the better the chances that a real surprise within the ER numbers will lift it above in unknown territory. Once that happens there will be no return. It will be tested though but if confirmed off we go.
That leaves the question what a real surprise is. Obviously we need positive results with no shadow but lets not make the mistake to believe shorts and bears will take them and declare defeat. They will do what they did well in the past and construct a negative within the expected positive results. The question though is not if they will do it but if the large investors waiting at the sidelines will believe in it or decide to continue waiting a quarter or not. Its all about them and not about more or less short in Tesla. Short do not dictate the SP they can only influence infliction points and that only works if weak bulls get nervous and get out.
So what we are talking about here is the fabrication of an alternative reality and if the media pumps it out again and large investors believe in it and keep waiting. If that happened according to the playbook that worked in the last 7 quarters then next month will be just another failed break out attempt.
Looking back most of this fabricated false narrative made me laugh about but obviously many investors are not informed as the average person here is and bought the FUD as real. Its hard for me to imagine what the next narrative will be but they have been quite creative in the past and again it worked out for them.
Working out BTW means they lost money all the way as confirmed from Ighor. Most of them reached a point where they can't back up as its all about their reputation now and not any more about money. If you lose money you just lose money (from your investors) but once you lost your reputation you lost everything.
Looking at the bright side most FUD that has been used in the past is now 'used FUD' and that is hard to reuse as its been declared wrong by facts already. Assuming that no sticking new negative can be played because its all used already even just okay positive numbers at the ER could convince the large investors to press the button and go in. Faster than we all realize the $388 could fall and technical investors declare a strong buy combined with shorts and bears go out be it temporarily or for the long run. The media has a new sensational report about Tesla which is Tesla looks like to succeed and all of a sudden you have strong positive momentum.
That combination will release quite a firework. If you add the band width we are in to $388 the next strong resistance would be then at $526.
Both scenarios are in my opinion equally likely and its today not at all clear what will happen after the ER.
What is clear to me though is that its just a question of months until the $388 falls and the SP jumps or moves continuously to a new ATH. Only a black swan event can change the overall picture and it does not make sense to discuss those as they are not predictable.
For clarity such an event would be IMO a major earthquake damaging Fremont severely but not a recession which I don't see coming anyway.
2018 was a year where Tesla did prove that the SP evaluation is justified and all down movements has been successfully defeated.
2019 will be a year where a new ATH is build and a new group of investors are moving in for the long run.
This is very unconvincing.
One possibility is that Max Pain is totally useless as a indicator of (short term) SP movements.
The reasoning is however that since it is the price at which the market makers themselves would earn the most on their option contracts - then they have motivation for trying to influence the SP towards that price point. (And one would have to believe that the market makers _can_ influence the SP at will).
Importantly, this motivation exists at any price point different from Max Pain.
But one has to realize that it can never be determined what exact factor(s) are causing a SP change. So if the SP happens to be pretty close to Max Pain and then moves closer, then it may or may not be due to something completely unrelated. So it is basically impossible to verify the reliability of Max Pain as an SP indicator.
Now, if someone can argue that the market makers' ability to influence the SP depends on its distance from Max Pain, then that argument would have to be taken into account.
However, to just nonchalantly compare this mechanism to something completely unrelated (a business magnate?) would need some kind of justification - otherwise it is just hindsight based nonsense, like astrology.
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