Actually, if SEC would investigate such manipulation to the point that the perpetrators would be prosecuted, it would happen less frequently and thus not be a concern.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Actually, if SEC would investigate such manipulation to the point that the perpetrators would be prosecuted, it would happen less frequently and thus not be a concern.
It's not the cash that's important, it's the working capital. If the suppliers lose confidence or reduce their payment terms, the $3 bn gets chewed up pretty quickly.
I agree with the reasoning, but not with the asserted prices.
As the fundamentals of Tesla change, investors will consider the stock undervalued at new prices.
At this point with a profitable Q3, good deliveries in Q4, good news on the GF3, few other stocks with similar outlook, I would expect investors with the ability to buy to do so at prices higher than the above.
I don't see how accurate information about this would be released. I also am certain he hasn't pledged all his shares against any borrowing as I haven't heard of him borrowing billions of dollars.
Even if there was a margin call at 230 he could surely negate this by pledging additional Tesla or spacex shares- which would have to be a preferable option for Elon than having a portion of his shares liquidated and receiving negative headlines about a founder selling shares. The only time he would let a margin call happen is if he had no way to stop it.
1week later and we’re at 15269. Actual numbers may be a bit higher as there aren’t a lot of recent orders for the top countries.
We seem to have a steady state of about 1K orders per week atm.
Dreadnought
Member
Although quoting you, @Smokey4141, I am not expecting that you will show any sign of acknowledgement to well-known facts. Instead, this is just a reminder for everyone in his right mind that your PT is ridiculous even when comparing Tesla to a car maker.
Let's have a look at Porsche, who plays in the same luxury-only segment and is somewhat comparable in volume.
I say "somewhat" as in 2017, Porsche was clearly in the lead at almost a quarter million vehicles vs about 100k Teslas. For 2018, they're approximately on par and by end of 2019, the relation will have flipped, with Tesla heading towards 400k.
Re-reading what I just wrote is actually quite painful as I compared the speed of two objects where one accelerates very hard and the other just cruises. For a brief moment, they happen to have the same speed but it doesn't matter. It's meaningless. You'd better compare it to something with similar *acceleration*. That's why reasonable analysts evaluate Tesla as a Tech company.
Still, even if anyone would ignore the mind boggling growth rate, a $30 price tag would translate to less than 1/3rd the market cap of Porsche. What makes you spread such utterly ridiculous figures? Can someone be so clueless or is this deliberately spread misinformation?
TL;DR:
Welcome to my ignore list. You earned it!
jschwefel
Tesla fan/TSLA, Model Y and Cybertruck owner.
Tesla has developed a product and manufacturing process where $15B (300k cars at $50k each) annual revenue can be generated from a $3B factory. At 20% GM, the factory is paid for in one year and they are printing money. The product is highly desirable, and the market is huge. I am bullish TSLA.
Scaling each out of date country by Norway & Germany's order rate over each relevant period suggests c.16.5k total orders in Europe currently.
European margin for each model should be roughly equal to the US. Norway is higher margin, Germany lower.
Delivery fee is also largely fixed, so California costs the same as Norway. Tesla likely makes a margin on the delivery & doc fee in the US, but might be around breakeven on average in Europe.
Europe ASP looks like $60.5k currently. After subtracting $1.5k deferred revenue and FSD revenue, this means c. $58.9k reported revenue per car and $13.5k gross profit per car (23.0% margin) on Q4 exit rate production costs (despite the absence of c.$2.1k GHG credit profit per car outside of the US).
I think there was a high chance Panasonic and other suppliers reduced pricing going into 2019 in sync with Tesla's price cuts, so margin should be higher than 23% already in Europe, and should continue to increase through the Q as costs are reduced.
I think Tesla has decided to eat some, if not all of the EU tariff cost. The Model 3 prices so far have a much smaller markup compared to US prices than with the S/X.
Tesla's pre tariff/pre tax/pre delivery price for LR AWD is:
US $51k
Germany $50.3k
Norway $53.3k
Spain $51.9k
Holland $51.6k
As a consumer you can ship a car from US to Europe from $700 to $1,800. For a company hiring an entire ship with 1,000+ cars the price should be significantly lower.
I can't see any reason to assume Europe margin is lower than US, excluding US tax credit income.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Posting just the altitude would tell me its general position. Solar and lunar high tides.
Also the ship will go even higher when it passes through the Panama canal.
When the ship is 85 feet above average sea level, I know where it is. I know exactly where it is.
Also, when it reports -3000 m the shipment is lost...
If market makers hedge their short option positions with stock, shouldn’t that mean that a large number of short stock positions will be closed next week for short put positions that currently are in the money or near the money?Yes, but it turns out that (unlike stocks) the market makers are willing to take unbalanced positions. In stocks, market makers try to zero out their inventory as much as possible. In options, they don't. They hedge their unbalanced options positions by buying or selling stock. So one side of the trade may be a market maker with no opinion on the stock.
That's what I call a smart question, BTW.
I have no idea what are the actual numbers, but to make a real difference they would have to have around 3 million stock short just for the Jan 18 puts. They may keep a number of them to hedge more short put positions further out but closing 1 or 2 million of these would make quite a difference!
Of course I don’t know and might be completely off.
You certainly seem to have a lot of mental capital invested in _not_ complaining to the SEC about 2 specific and a bunch of less specific analysts companies vis a vis (love that 50cent word) market manipulation
Izzat you Donn?
Sunlight
Member
FWIW I think that Elon was just being mischievious in the interview..........
Maybe by some parameters Tesla was close to bleeding to death but as we all know (?) Tesla had other financial options to tap and I can hardly believe that there was ever a chance of Tesla just shutting the doors and declaring "No more cars - we're done!"
No I suspect he felt that 'Max Pain' for highly invested Shorts and Serious Bears (not just skeptics) would be for them to suffer the thought that they NEARLY succeeded in bringing down the house.
"Damn it - if only I'd pushed (this or that) a bit further, it would have worked...." "Hell that was close - dammit!", "WTF we KNEW we were right'....
So close but no cigar (Didn't Elon say that with one failed barge landing of a Falcon?)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Who Shops At Tesla Stores? — #NewsQuickie | CleanTechnica
"To wrap things up, these are the 10 dealership brands most likely to be frequented by the humans Factual (market research firm) found snooping around in Tesla stores:
Neither is Mercedes.
I guess quite a few people are cross shopping with I-Pace?
"To wrap things up, these are the 10 dealership brands most likely to be frequented by the humans Factual (market research firm) found snooping around in Tesla stores:
- Jaguar
- Land Rover
- MINI
- Volvo
- Audi
- Volkswagen
- Porsche
- BMW
- Lexus
- Honda"
Neither is Mercedes.
I guess quite a few people are cross shopping with I-Pace?
The ship is estimated to arrive at
Port of Balboa (Panama)
on January 21st,
GLOVIS CAPTAIN Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9707015) - VesselFinder
If accurate, this very likely makes the cargo bound for Europe.
Per the below information from Glovis, that ship has a capacity of 6070 AEU (Automobile Equivalent Unit),
HYUNDAI GLOVIS
- So if Tesla was exporting all their Model 3's they would fill up about one ship per week.
PS. I am skeptical of the Panama ETA, sea-distances.org gives the distance from SF to there as 6000 km. Even if moving at maximum speed (15 knots), the ship would have had to have left by now to make that.
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The target to Europe is said to be 3k/wk, so they should fill a ship like this every two weeks. Which also helps give a sense of the turnaround time between when Tesla makes a vehicle and when it arrives.
Elon likes to be dramatic, and I think his comments were mostly trying to communicate the stress he was under and provide some explanation for his erratic tweeting.
Tesla finished Q2 with $2.2bn unrestricted cash. Before ramping production and clearing inventory in June, cash position may have been $1-1.5bn in May with a c.$100m weekly burn rate (excluding working capital). Single digit weeks could mean up to 9, so Elon may well be factually correct that Tesla would have run out of cash if they had done absolutely nothing to try to prevent it, or never managed to ramp production. They always had a lot of options to cut cash burn, raise capital and sell assets though, so in reality bankruptcy risk was never that high in 2018.
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