Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SPadival]

Now that Elon has given us an “unofficial” Q2 delivery number, I am back in with a small purchase at $183.8 (pre-market)

F Wall Street analysts

 

[Carl Raymond]

Finally, positive coverage from New York Times... Crossword. (Tuesday)

View attachment 411323

Only do cryptics. “Automaker could be a steal”.

 

[Fred42]

Aren't the front facing cameras covered by regular windshield wipers? They're heated and wiped so at the very least a bug splat/bird drop can be wiped. Going to be sketch but I'd imagine between the radar and what, 3 different front cameras plus ultrasonics it would be possible to either alert the driver to take over [level 3] or park the car [level 4?] if there's no driver and/or or no steering wheel.

I think if Tesla can demonstrate their stuff works with clean cameras, it's going to be good enough. Pretty clear that solving for dirty cameras is trivial, and there's enough big metropolitan areas in US where heavy snow isn't a problem so the fleet can work there 99% of the time.

No one has mentioned the obvious solution: squeegee men!

 

[tander]

Anybody else got the feeling that Model 3 orders are about to ‘go viral’? The leaked news inspired me to grab some shares in pre market. I figure that the current date likely represents peak FUD, and to hear that this had not deterred 50k new car buyers shows great resilience.

As the stock rebounds, confidence will rise and the order rate will rise. There are countless anecdotes in this forum of owners ‘selling’ cars to passengers. That effect grows proportionately to the number of Teslas on the street.

But Tesla can only make them so fast? True, but as the order book grows, the wait time drives impatient buyers upmarket to secure a car sooner. They add options to their 3, or switch to S or X. Margin climbs.

I’m excited for Tesla. Sad for where BMW is headed. Germany gets my vote for GF4, for stability.

The logical progression: they sell a lot this quarter, more the next, and so on until autopilot comes out, they have to start taking reservations again and they appreciate at least for a while. If they start appreciating it might get kind of crazy. The big question is probably how many will they make in China and when will the Buffalo plant start producing? Were they going to make them in Nevada too? What happens if there is suddenly demand for 500k a year and they can only make 150k? If BMW can sell 4-500k 3-series I think it's a safe assumption that eventual Model 3 demand is higher even if they never appreciate.

 

[mekberg]

Anybody else got the feeling that Model 3 orders are about to ‘go viral’? The leaked news inspired me to grab some shares in pre market. I figure that the current date likely represents peak FUD, and to hear that this had not deterred 50k new car buyers shows great resilience.

As the stock rebounds, confidence will rise and the order rate will rise. There are countless anecdotes in this forum of owners ‘selling’ cars to passengers. That effect grows proportionately to the number of Teslas on the street.

But Tesla can only make them so fast? True, but as the order book grows, the wait time drives impatient buyers upmarket to secure a car sooner. They add options to their 3, or switch to S or X. Margin climbs.

I’m excited for Tesla. Sad for where BMW is headed. Germany gets my vote for GF4, for stability.

This 100%. Each Tesla owner probably sells another four to family and friends. Graph that out...

 

[srius]

Any spillover should have been delivered in April. The link @tentonine mentioned showed 2k+ April Model 3s in China.​

The ev-sales blogspot Model 3 numbers are inconsistent. The China April data showed March sales 3,738 [6,738('19) - 3,000(Apr)], while March data showed March(=Q1) sales 5,300.
March data: EV Sales: China March 2019
April data: EV Sales: China April 2019
It looks like Tesla needs promotions and brand push in China to attract some of those who could afford high-priced EVs.

 

[Driver Dave]

Anybody else got the feeling that Model 3 orders are about to ‘go viral’?

Been thinking the same thing.

Seeing all the Teslas around now, and knowing that each one spreads to friends and families, I suspect they won’t need to advertise for quite a while.

 

[wipster]

OT

Here's a picture of a real dealership, Graves Hudson in Kennewick, WA when it opened in the early '50's. It later became Graves Dodge with the demise of Hudson. My Dad not only worked there as a mechanic but also bought several new and used vehicles there, including the 1966 Petty blue A100 Custom flat nosed truck that I now own (it's pretty cool)

That was back when dealerships actually served a purpose, way before the interweb made them somewhat irrelevant. Just thought I'd share...

 

[ReflexFunds]

@elonmusk
Part of the factory is being upgraded, but tours will continue around the parts that aren’t

Anyone heard any detail on exactly which part of the factory is being worked on?
I would guess this is because they have committed to Fremont for Model Y production.
Would like to know if this work involves combining S and X body lines.
It seems unlikely any changes are being made to the Model 3 line given it sounds like they are operating at max production rates.
The upgrade could just be warehouse space, empty space and new external construction in preparation for Model Y.

 

[tander]

OTView attachment 411352
Here's a picture of a real dealership, Graves Hudson in Kennewick, WA when it opened in the early '50's. It later became Graves Dodge with the demise of Hudson. My Dad not only worked there as a mechanic but also bought several new and used vehicles there, including the 1966 Petty blue A100 Custom flat nosed truck that I now own (it's pretty cool)

That was back when dealerships actually served a purpose, way before the interweb made them somewhat irrelevant. Just thought I'd share...

Also back when you couldn't just pull up car prices, safety, and reliability on the internet. Back when seat belts were new, no car was made without a cigarette tray. And not even George Jetson had a self driving car. Cool to get some historical perspective.

 

[capster]

Anybody else got the feeling that Model 3 orders are about to ‘go viral’? The leaked news inspired me to grab some shares in pre market. I figure that the current date likely represents peak FUD, and to hear that this had not deterred 50k new car buyers shows great resilience.

As the stock rebounds, confidence will rise and the order rate will rise. There are countless anecdotes in this forum of owners ‘selling’ cars to passengers. That effect grows proportionately to the number of Teslas on the street.

But Tesla can only make them so fast? True, but as the order book grows, the wait time drives impatient buyers upmarket to secure a car sooner. They add options to their 3, or switch to S or X. Margin climbs.

I’m excited for Tesla. Sad for where BMW is headed. Germany gets my vote for GF4, for stability.

This points to an area of deep flaws in the entire FUD strategy.

You might’ve heard that boats become exponentially more expensive to own as they grow linearly in length.

In my estimation, it becomes exponentially more expensive to maintain doubt (for shares or cars) in the buyers’ minds as the number of cars on the street rises even linearly. Of course, the number of cars sold is rising faster than linearly.

It is conceivable that the papers, including the NYT and the WSJ, will have to stop playing ball with Wall Street/Auto/Oil/... wrt Tesla when their readers move to rolling their eyes and then on to laughing because there is just so much sound common knowledge spread by word of mouth.

Also, there’s probably some sort of decay function in the credibility/effectiveness of the FUD, too, the louder and longer the easily falsified claims go on.

This all means that there are likely critical points out there around cost of FUD, effectiveness of FUD, access to FUD transmission channels, costs of covering, and so on that will prove damaging to the shorts, hard to predict where exactly (for me at least).

Yes, Germany is at considerable risk of being destabilized again, but not sure that’s reason enough to put the first European GF there. Things are heavily stacked in favor of the home teams there. Perhaps it might be better to let events rattle the Germans for a while first.

 

[Thumper]

Average basis now $89. Started accumulating in Aug 2011 at $23.80. Added consistently some at $370 on day of 420 tweet. Some at $425 converted from Solar City. I can't really justify adding any more. I would like to see this thing be much higher even though I won't sell unless I need to. At age 73, I can't wait forever. I'm long TSLA but short telomeres.

 

[powertoold]

This whole demand thing was ridiculous. We are to expect the best cars in production to have a demand problem during a shift to electric vehicles with many nations passing climate change policies moving towards electric vehicles? With the competition no where close?

If Teslas have a demand problem, humanity is in trouble. Although faith in humanity isn't high these days

 

[TheMrX]

IF Elon did a F150-like pickup, but electric, I'd wholeheartedly agree with you.
I'm worried he'll go for a F750 or something, something huge. Not the "the new electric standard".

I'll admit I am worried to ; that is part of why I did not waited for the unveil and traded ny ecodiesel for a 3AWD.

But I think it will be more like a luxury pickup with a techy design, hence will not fit in my budget.

Anecdotal : I had to replace my bumper before handing the truck, when I went to the garage (not dealer) there was a young man in his twenties with a brand new f150. I found out that he paid 70 000$ for his truck. There are plenty of thise guys here : they work in mining industries, took a 6-24 month class, are hired before finishing school and get paid in the six figures at first year. Very few of them resist to biy their dream truck, ATV, snowmobile, bike, etc. Often even before buying a house...

So if tesla truck is a top of the top, I bet you that they will all want one as soon as ONE of them gets the first and put all theirs to shame...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Now that Elon has given us an “unofficial” Q2 delivery number, I am back in with a small purchase at $183.8 (pre-market)

F Wall Street analysts

Me too. Very small

 

[Fred42]

This points to an area of deep flaws in the entire FUD strategy.

You might’ve heard that boats become exponentially more expensive to own as they grow linearly in length.

In my estimation, it becomes exponentially more expensive to maintain doubt (for shares or cars) in the buyers’ minds as the number of cars on the street rises even linearly. Of course, the number of cars sold is rising faster than linearly.

It is conceivable that the papers, including the NYT and the WSJ, will have to stop playing ball with Wall Street/Auto/Oil/... wrt Tesla when their readers move to rolling their eyes and then on to laughing because there is just so much sound common knowledge spread by word of mouth.

Also, there’s probably some sort of decay function in the credibility/effectiveness of the FUD, too, the louder and longer the easily falsified claims go on.

This all means that there are likely critical points out there around cost of FUD, effectiveness of FUD, access to FUD transmission channels, costs of covering, and so on that will prove damaging to the shorts, hard to predict where exactly (for me at least).

Yes, Germany is at considerable risk of being destabilized again, but not sure that’s reason enough to put the first European GF there. Things are heavily stacked in favor of the home teams there. Perhaps it might be better to let events rattle the Germans for a while first.

This is wishful thinking. FUD has reduced sales and ASP and will continue to do so in a meaningful way. It will continue to be worthwhile for legacy players to spend a lot to slow down change, and they have plentiful resources.
And the Germans are already rattled but they will pull through this. VW is focused, and the government will provide necessary support for the industry. Possibly there will be a merger.

 

[X Fan]

90k deliveries would still result in about 250 million loss. ASP and esp. margin have fallen compared to Q3/Q4.

Sobering......

 

[Zaxxon]

Having said that, I am concerned that there may have been production delays too, as it does seem to be taking a long time, but hopefully not too bad in light of Musk's leaked e-mail. I think I even saw a post from someone who has been waiting since late March (can't remember if it was S or X) - presumably he ordered a configuration that wasn't in inventory before they shut down old S/X production.

My X order went in a week ago. As such, when I hear that mine is ready for delivery that should be a sign that the Ravens are in full flight. You can bet I'll report it here post-haste.

As for the pickup, while it won't be important for sales, I think it could have a shock and awe affect that would drive interest from people to Tesla as a brand. The new roadster had a similar effect when it shocked everyone. People were talking about it for weeks.

The pickup is huge for sales, at least in America.

Sales stats: Best-Selling Pickup Trucks In America – December 2018 | GCBC

Greater than $44k ASP for full-sized pickups.

If Tesla is smart about the pickup and doesn't go too far out there, it has a lot of potential. Especially since it's a segment inordinately focused on EV strengths like torque and less focused on long-distance travel. And one that inordinately dislikes Tesla. Until a Tesla tops the heap in pickups.

Well, at least there will be no lack of suitable locations for expanding Tesla service centers!

(Probably at NUMMI prices, too.)

You joke, but Tesla's already taking advantage of this. Our main Denver service/delivery center (also a showroom) is a former BMW dealer location that Tesla scooped up when the former tenant vacated.

 

[theschnell]

A very financially conservative family in my church just pulled the trigger on a used S. They will be the fourth Tesla at our church but they are the most financially conservative. Replacing a 16 year old Honda Odyssey minivan with over 200k miles. Tesla is slowly, slowly moving more mainstream here in N. GA.

I think we will slowly but surely continue to see Tesla move more mainstream, especially when the Y comes out.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'll admit I am worried to ; that is part of why I did not waited for the unveil and traded ny ecodiesel for a 3AWD.

But I think it will be more like a luxury pickup with a techy design, hence will not fit in my budget.

Anecdotal : I had to replace my bumper before handing the truck, when I went to the garage (not dealer) there was a young man in his twenties with a brand new f150. I found out that he paid 70 000$ for his truck. There are plenty of thise guys here : they work in mining industries, took a 6-24 month class, are hired before finishing school and get paid in the six figures at first year. Very few of them resist to biy their dream truck, ATV, snowmobile, bike, etc. Often even before buying a house...

So if tesla truck is a top of the top, I bet you that they will all want one as soon as ONE of them gets the first and put all theirs to shame...

Yep, it’s amazing what people pay for their pickups. If the Tesla pickups are cool enough (and can be raised about five feet), price may not be a big obstacle.