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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If Q2 is epic and it continues to Q3, I think there is going to be a serious dissonance between what 30,000 people per month think and what talking heads on CNBC think.

I mean, someone had to call BS at some point.
Remember a large portion of the orders probably came from places that never heard of CNBC or even see SA, except for perhaps some quotes. I'm hoping a large portion of them are from the US and Canada as evidence of a large demand here will help dampen the FUD more than overseas (at least I think so... can any of our non NA members comment on what they see and hear?).
 
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An that's why I am so dead certain Tesla will win. Emotions rule us one way or another and ones you felt it you won't forget and one day be it sooner or later you come back because you want it again...
And I am not a "Car guy" all my friends who are old muscle car guys could not believe i bought a Tesla ... they were like " you don't even like cars" ... and I was like "i never had a car like this" ... Tesla has made me a "Car Guy" ;) to me they were right the old model of buying , repairing , fueling , selling , polluting, destroying the planet was not for me so i was not and ICE guy but I am a "BEV guy" ...they too after riding in Model S are left with the feeling of missing out ... i know they are trying to figure out how to purchase a Tesla ... time will tell;)
 
Remember a large portion of the orders probably came from places that never heard of CNBC or even see SA, except for perhaps some quotes. I'm hoping a large portion of them are from the US and Canada as evidence of a large demand here will help dampen the FUD more than overseas (at least I think so... can any of our non NA members comment on what they see and hear?).
I think you're right. *I* never listen to CNBC. The dissonance will be when someone is considering a Tesla. On one side, a clueless friend will say ”I heard the cars are a POS”, another friend will say “I own one. It’s awesome. Want to drive it?" When the latter far outweigh the former, the problem is solved.

Edit: typos
 
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I had a factory tour scheduled for June 11th in the morning. I just received an email saying they have to reschedule me due to "making improvements to our factory."

Update: Received an email saying after making adjustments to the route I'll be able to keep my tour appointment after all. Wonder if I'll catch a glimpse of areas being...improved.

Also, yesterday as a distraction to SP action I started playing around with the InsideEVs plugin data and created this visualization. The Model 3 bar is fun to watch.

US Plug In EV Sales 2012 - Present
 
If Tesla is smart about the pickup and doesn't go too far out there, it has a lot of potential. Especially since it's a segment inordinately focused on EV strengths like torque and less focused on long-distance travel. And one that inordinately dislikes Tesla. Until a Tesla tops the heap in pickups.
Elon's hubris is likely to wreck this one. He's already twitted the truck will look "futuristic". X and Y are already too futuristic for many people - neither resembles the look of a typical SUV. It's better to move forward slower, like the original model S did, as people have strong existing ideas of the looks.
 
This is wishful thinking. FUD has reduced sales and ASP and will continue to do so in a meaningful way. It will continue to be worthwhile for legacy players to spend a lot to slow down change, and they have plentiful resources.
And the Germans are already rattled but they will pull through this. VW is focused, and the government will provide necessary support for the industry. Possibly there will be a merger.

Sorry Fred, I had to disagree because Capster is spot on with his theory that FUD loses effectiveness when contrary evidence is literally before one’s eyes.

It’s not wishful thinking at all. Yes, the FUD has been effective to date. As Teslas become more renowned and more prevalent, that effectiveness shrivels. Mastheads risk their reputation if they continue to play the FUD game. People will go ‘WTF?’ and unsubscribe.
 
Update: Received an email saying after making adjustments to the route I'll be able to keep my tour appointment after all. Wonder if I'll catch a glimpse of areas being...improved.

Also, yesterday as a distraction to SP action I started playing around with the InsideEVs plugin data and created this visualization. The Model 3 bar is fun to watch.

US Plug In EV Sales 2012 - Present
Thanks! That is too cool, can't wait for the rest of the decade!
 
This is wishful thinking. FUD has reduced sales and ASP and will continue to do so in a meaningful way. It will continue to be worthwhile for legacy players to spend a lot to slow down change, and they have plentiful resources.
And the Germans are already rattled but they will pull through this. VW is focused, and the government will provide necessary support for the industry. Possibly there will be a merger.
The legacy automakers have a real innovators dilemma especially when it comes to OTA updates and the legacy dealership value networks... BEVs essentially kill this value network ... I don't think many legacy ICE automakers will survive the transition to BEV ... dealers will fight the OTA since the OTA model will hurt their cash cow... the ICE vehicle distribution network has been totally disrupted... they just don't get it yet ... making the BEVs are the least of their problems ... that is why i laugh my butt off every time I here Tesla is doomed the competition is coming ....these analyst are a joke .. i would love to know what business schools are churning these idiots out...

bought more shares today ;)
 
Me too. Very small
I forgot to add F media.

PSA: Owners, don’t waste your time posting on this thread (*). Spend it by giving test rides, test drives and general word of mouth debunking with family, friends and random passerby. We already have total air dominance over social media (Thanks Elon and influencers). Now we got to dominate the Wall st-Media complex by word of mouth.

(*) it also has the side benefit of letting me catch up on this thread :p
 
Update: Received an email saying after making adjustments to the route I'll be able to keep my tour appointment after all. Wonder if I'll catch a glimpse of areas being...improved.

Also, yesterday as a distraction to SP action I started playing around with the InsideEVs plugin data and created this visualization. The Model 3 bar is fun to watch.

US Plug In EV Sales 2012 - Present
great job with the visualization ...
 
Update: Received an email saying after making adjustments to the route I'll be able to keep my tour appointment after all. Wonder if I'll catch a glimpse of areas being...improved.

Also, yesterday as a distraction to SP action I started playing around with the InsideEVs plugin data and created this visualization. The Model 3 bar is fun to watch.

US Plug In EV Sales 2012 - Present
great job with the visualization ...
 
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Sorry Fred, I had to disagree because Capster is spot on with his theory that FUD loses effectiveness when contrary evidence is literally before one’s eyes.

It’s not wishful thinking at all. Yes, the FUD has been effective to date. As Teslas become more renowned and more prevalent, that effectiveness shrivels. Mastheads risk their reputation if they continue to play the FUD game. People will go ‘WTF?’ and unsubscribe.
There was some question in this thread sometime back as to why there are no big BMW is on fire news report. Because that FUD will have zero effect - everyone knows BMWs have been around for decades and don't catch fire all the time.

But corporate America is just playing for time and they are winning. I'm sure a lot of tobacco executives retired wealthy and lived happily ever after.
 
The legacy automakers have a real innovators dilemma especially when it comes to OTA updates and the legacy dealership value networks... BEVs essentially kill this value network ... I don't think many legacy ICE automakers will survive the transition to BEV ... dealers will fight the OTA since the OTA model will hurt their cash cow... the ICE vehicle distribution network has been totally disrupted... they just don't get it yet ... making the BEVs are the least of their problems ... that is why i laugh my butt off every time I here Tesla is doomed the competition is coming ....these analyst are a joke .. i would love to know what business schools are churning these idiots out...

bought more shares today ;)
The somewhat sad (and probably accurate) perception is that Tesla : Dealership = Amazon : Appliance Store.
 
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Pretty good discussion at CR:

Basically re-iterates why Tesla's Autopilot is nowhere close to being ready, and their "self-driving" is pretty sad.
There are always 2 ways to look at it. Wow, how far we have come ! vs how far away we are !

I was talking to a friend about NOA - and he was like - No FSD won't be here soon. I asked him when do you think it will be here, he said atleast it will take a year ! People have no idea where we are, how long we have come and how much time it will take to go to where CR will be happy with NOA.
 
Anybody else got the feeling that Model 3 orders are about to ‘go viral’? The leaked news inspired me to grab some shares in pre market. I figure that the current date likely represents peak FUD, and to hear that this had not deterred 50k new car buyers shows great resilience.

As the stock rebounds, confidence will rise and the order rate will rise. There are countless anecdotes in this forum of owners ‘selling’ cars to passengers. That effect grows proportionately to the number of Teslas on the street.

But Tesla can only make them so fast? True, but as the order book grows, the wait time drives impatient buyers upmarket to secure a car sooner. They add options to their 3, or switch to S or X. Margin climbs.

I’m excited for Tesla. Sad for where BMW is headed. Germany gets my vote for GF4, for stability.

For me, Model 3 best car ever. Okay, I've owned several 240z, an rx7, the 300zx, porsche 951, several 911s now that you'll not pry from me because they are air cooled and NOTHING will touch them... it's not about 0-60 in that department at all. It is more of the grass roots aspect of the car, very much the same reason I lover the model 3 right now. But we also own benz and audi. We've been down the toyota, lexus path as well. Yes, plush customer wait areas and loaners when getting service. Uhg. I am a gear head at heart, have made bio diesel, own two diesels now, burn fuel at race tracks when I get the time to do it. Yes, carbon footprint balance now that I own a LR AWD 3. But I'm not fretting over maintenance like I am with the fleet of ICE cars. Sure the diesels have torque and range. We use them for the long trips when hauling the family as a whole. The 3's not for that. The 3 is in-town, around town, to the beach and back, to the mountains and back, conveniently always charged and ready to go... we share it all day long. But I am going to road trip it New Jersey to Florida... because I can. The route is lined with Super Chargers. I know I can recharge in 50 in between 4 hours of driving.

About the stock, in long as well. I personally feel the bankers and shorts are SC*()@AGs. It is a free market and we can work both sides. They are smart and able, game on. Unfortunately, no clear way to get to each as to how I really feel. I get the share holder return thing and I also get the fact that bankers are expected to profit. But what other disruptive industry have they worked so hard against? The whole VW diesel thing was a joke. Most all Cummins diesels today blow far more pollutants than my Jetta TDI did. Why didn't the EPA go after the US manufacturers as they had with VW group?

Anyone in the industry should be ashamed to publish the nonsense they are writing about Tesla. Many don't own a Tesla or know first hand how different of a company this is. It's not a cash cow business we've been milked by for years.

My writing wanders, feel free to pick at it. I'll not care or bother to reply.
 
The legacy automakers have a real innovators dilemma especially when it comes to OTA updates and the legacy dealership value networks... BEVs essentially kill this value network ... I don't think many legacy ICE automakers will survive the transition to BEV
This is what happened to the legacy tire manufacturers when radial tires made their appearance. For the most part they are now just brands owned by others. The main difference between the two battles is the size of the pocketbooks arrayed against Tesla. I don't doubt that it will happen, but it will be more drawn out as the legacy industries fight tooth and nail to stem the Tesla tide. They might have succeeded if Tesla was only in the U.S., but with GF3 close to completion, they no longer stand a chance.
 
On the flip side of that, besides saying that they have a good chance at breaking the Q4 record for deliveries, the rest of the email is focused on just Model 3. The 50k new net orders could be S/X/3, or S/X/Y/3 or...….just 3. Semi and Roadster guys? Come on, even if it did include those that would be maybe like 100? 200?
IMO "net new orders of over 50,000" means they have eliminated orders that cannot be manufactured this quarter - e.g. orders for Semi, Roadster, Model Y, and RHD Model 3 etc. - and also after they remove orders that could be manufactured, but were cancelled - but it includes those orders that haven't been matched up yet with some existing new inventory car. The number is a real-time running total and as of that email was somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000.

"Gross new orders" would mean all unfulfilled orders for everything, including vehicles that haven't begun production, and includes orders that may be cancelled in the future (but of course Tesla has no idea how many or which ones those are).