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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. srius

    srius Member

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    The ev-sales blogspot Model 3 numbers are inconsistent. The China April data showed March sales 3,738 [6,738('19) - 3,000(Apr)], while March data showed March(=Q1) sales 5,300.
    March data: EV Sales: China March 2019
    April data: EV Sales: China April 2019
    It looks like Tesla needs promotions and brand push in China to attract some of those who could afford high-priced EVs.
     
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  2. Driver Dave

    Driver Dave Member

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    Been thinking the same thing.

    Seeing all the Teslas around now, and knowing that each one spreads to friends and families, I suspect they won’t need to advertise for quite a while.
     
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  3. wipster

    wipster Gold Member

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    OT Graves Hudson.jpg
    Here's a picture of a real dealership, Graves Hudson in Kennewick, WA when it opened in the early '50's. It later became Graves Dodge with the demise of Hudson. My Dad not only worked there as a mechanic but also bought several new and used vehicles there, including the 1966 Petty blue A100 Custom flat nosed truck that I now own (it's pretty cool)

    That was back when dealerships actually served a purpose, way before the interweb made them somewhat irrelevant. Just thought I'd share...
     
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  4. ReflexFunds

    ReflexFunds Active Member

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    #57944 ReflexFunds, May 23, 2019
    Last edited: May 23, 2019
    Anyone heard any detail on exactly which part of the factory is being worked on?
    I would guess this is because they have committed to Fremont for Model Y production.
    Would like to know if this work involves combining S and X body lines.
    It seems unlikely any changes are being made to the Model 3 line given it sounds like they are operating at max production rates.
    The upgrade could just be warehouse space, empty space and new external construction in preparation for Model Y.
     
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  5. tander

    tander Active Member

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    Also back when you couldn't just pull up car prices, safety, and reliability on the internet. Back when seat belts were new, no car was made without a cigarette tray. And not even George Jetson had a self driving car. Cool to get some historical perspective.
     
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  6. capster

    capster Supporting Member

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    This points to an area of deep flaws in the entire FUD strategy.

    You might’ve heard that boats become exponentially more expensive to own as they grow linearly in length.

    In my estimation, it becomes exponentially more expensive to maintain doubt (for shares or cars) in the buyers’ minds as the number of cars on the street rises even linearly. Of course, the number of cars sold is rising faster than linearly.

    It is conceivable that the papers, including the NYT and the WSJ, will have to stop playing ball with Wall Street/Auto/Oil/... wrt Tesla when their readers move to rolling their eyes and then on to laughing because there is just so much sound common knowledge spread by word of mouth.

    Also, there’s probably some sort of decay function in the credibility/effectiveness of the FUD, too, the louder and longer the easily falsified claims go on.

    This all means that there are likely critical points out there around cost of FUD, effectiveness of FUD, access to FUD transmission channels, costs of covering, and so on that will prove damaging to the shorts, hard to predict where exactly (for me at least).

    Yes, Germany is at considerable risk of being destabilized again, but not sure that’s reason enough to put the first European GF there. Things are heavily stacked in favor of the home teams there. Perhaps it might be better to let events rattle the Germans for a while first.
     
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  7. Thumper

    Thumper Supporting Member

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    #57947 Thumper, May 23, 2019
    Last edited: May 23, 2019
    Average basis now $89. Started accumulating in Aug 2011 at $23.80. Added consistently some at $370 on day of 420 tweet. Some at $425 converted from Solar City. I can't really justify adding any more. I would like to see this thing be much higher even though I won't sell unless I need to. At age 73, I can't wait forever. I'm long TSLA but short telomeres.
     
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  8. powertoold

    powertoold Active Member

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    This whole demand thing was ridiculous. We are to expect the best cars in production to have a demand problem during a shift to electric vehicles with many nations passing climate change policies moving towards electric vehicles? With the competition no where close?

    If Teslas have a demand problem, humanity is in trouble. Although faith in humanity isn't high these days :eek:
     
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  9. TheMrX

    TheMrX Member

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    I'll admit I am worried to ; that is part of why I did not waited for the unveil and traded ny ecodiesel for a 3AWD.

    But I think it will be more like a luxury pickup with a techy design, hence will not fit in my budget.

    Anecdotal : I had to replace my bumper before handing the truck, when I went to the garage (not dealer) there was a young man in his twenties with a brand new f150. I found out that he paid 70 000$ for his truck. There are plenty of thise guys here : they work in mining industries, took a 6-24 month class, are hired before finishing school and get paid in the six figures at first year. Very few of them resist to biy their dream truck, ATV, snowmobile, bike, etc. Often even before buying a house...

    So if tesla truck is a top of the top, I bet you that they will all want one as soon as ONE of them gets the first and put all theirs to shame...
     
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  10. Prunesquallor

    Prunesquallor His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.

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    Me too. Very small
     
  11. Fred42

    Fred42 Member

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    This is wishful thinking. FUD has reduced sales and ASP and will continue to do so in a meaningful way. It will continue to be worthwhile for legacy players to spend a lot to slow down change, and they have plentiful resources.
    And the Germans are already rattled but they will pull through this. VW is focused, and the government will provide necessary support for the industry. Possibly there will be a merger.
     
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  12. X Fan

    X Fan Supporting Member

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    Sobering......
     
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  13. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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    My X order went in a week ago. As such, when I hear that mine is ready for delivery that should be a sign that the Ravens are in full flight. You can bet I'll report it here post-haste.

    The pickup is huge for sales, at least in America.

    Sales stats: Best-Selling Pickup Trucks In America – December 2018 | GCBC

    Greater than $44k ASP for full-sized pickups.

    If Tesla is smart about the pickup and doesn't go too far out there, it has a lot of potential. Especially since it's a segment inordinately focused on EV strengths like torque and less focused on long-distance travel. And one that inordinately dislikes Tesla. Until a Tesla tops the heap in pickups.

    You joke, but Tesla's already taking advantage of this. Our main Denver service/delivery center (also a showroom) is a former BMW dealer location that Tesla scooped up when the former tenant vacated.
     
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  14. theschnell

    theschnell Member

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    A very financially conservative family in my church just pulled the trigger on a used S. They will be the fourth Tesla at our church but they are the most financially conservative. Replacing a 16 year old Honda Odyssey minivan with over 200k miles. Tesla is slowly, slowly moving more mainstream here in N. GA.

    I think we will slowly but surely continue to see Tesla move more mainstream, especially when the Y comes out.
     
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  15. Prunesquallor

    Prunesquallor His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.

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    Yep, it’s amazing what people pay for their pickups. If the Tesla pickups are cool enough (and can be raised about five feet), price may not be a big obstacle.
     
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  16. wipster

    wipster Gold Member

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    Remember a large portion of the orders probably came from places that never heard of CNBC or even see SA, except for perhaps some quotes. I'm hoping a large portion of them are from the US and Canada as evidence of a large demand here will help dampen the FUD more than overseas (at least I think so... can any of our non NA members comment on what they see and hear?).
     
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  17. Zero CO2

    Zero CO2 a long term goal

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    And I am not a "Car guy" all my friends who are old muscle car guys could not believe i bought a Tesla ... they were like " you don't even like cars" ... and I was like "i never had a car like this" ... Tesla has made me a "Car Guy" ;) to me they were right the old model of buying , repairing , fueling , selling , polluting, destroying the planet was not for me so i was not and ICE guy but I am a "BEV guy" ...they too after riding in Model S are left with the feeling of missing out ... i know they are trying to figure out how to purchase a Tesla ... time will tell;)
     
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  18. Prunesquallor

    Prunesquallor His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.

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    #57958 Prunesquallor, May 23, 2019
    Last edited: May 23, 2019
    I think you're right. *I* never listen to CNBC. The dissonance will be when someone is considering a Tesla. On one side, a clueless friend will say ”I heard the cars are a POS”, another friend will say “I own one. It’s awesome. Want to drive it?" When the latter far outweigh the former, the problem is solved.

    Edit: typos
     
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  19. Mokuzai

    Mokuzai Member

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    Update: Received an email saying after making adjustments to the route I'll be able to keep my tour appointment after all. Wonder if I'll catch a glimpse of areas being...improved.

    Also, yesterday as a distraction to SP action I started playing around with the InsideEVs plugin data and created this visualization. The Model 3 bar is fun to watch.

    US Plug In EV Sales 2012 - Present
     
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  20. srius

    srius Member

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    Elon's hubris is likely to wreck this one. He's already twitted the truck will look "futuristic". X and Y are already too futuristic for many people - neither resembles the look of a typical SUV. It's better to move forward slower, like the original model S did, as people have strong existing ideas of the looks.
     
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