Not for cars directly (packaging and urban coverage issues), but Powerpack, supercharger, and maybe Semi could benefit.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Not for cars directly (packaging and urban coverage issues), but Powerpack, supercharger, and maybe Semi could benefit.
I'm still waiting for the mainstream media to start reporting that Tesla had the 3rd best selling VEHICLE (car, SUV, or pickup) in California in first quarter this year (after drop in tax credit). Best selling AMERICAN vehicle. Outsold BMW 3-series 7:1. Tesla isn't the company with a demand problem....
bdy0627
Active Member
They are pivoting now from demand to debt. I think they probably took this directly from Jonas call 5/22:
"No one cares about debt when you are growing"
"Gross debt is 50% of revenues compared with 10% at F and GM, 2-5% at VW and BMW"
I'd love to hear from some others who are knowledgeable about this stuff, but I think the bottom line is that Tesla has spent for growth but hasn't yet realized much of that growth (and efficiency) it has spent for.
Yeah, exactly, but note how tunnels are different. On a highway as you are passing a truck the following happens:
The shape of the two vehicles forces about twice the amount of air between them as on the other side of the car, which creates a low pressure counter-flow between them which pushes the car towards the semi.
In a symmetric tunnel scenario I believe the effect reverses: if the car moves a bit towards the wall then on that side less air is forced through and pressure increases - pushing the car back towards the center.
(I'll try to search whether there's existing research about this: this would something that should be within the engineering experience of underground train systems.)
Fascinating. Does this explain truck lust?
Apples to apples would include debt at franchised dealers in some way but probably impossible to do that. Also the variability of structure of the financing and leasing arms of all the OEMs makes apples to apples pretty hard.
Pras
Member
.
Disagree. The revenue has grown by 82% 68% and 73% annually for 2018, 17, 16 respectively. It is likely to grow at least 20% this year (transition year) and much more next year.
Disagree. The revenue has grown by 82% 68% and 73% annually for 2018, 17, 16 respectively. It is likely to grow at least 20% this year (transition year) and much more next year.
This StarLink launch success is very important for Tesla. If SpaceX's market cap goes to $100~200B because of StarLink earnings, Elon will be rich. Seems to me StarLink is a matter of when, not if.
ZachF
Active Member
It's nonsense.
Ford's debt is almost as large as revenue
Many of the German companies have larded up huge amounts of debt over the last few years
Tesla
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Tesla Inc (TSLA) from Morningstar.com
Balance Sheet for Tesla Inc (TSLA) from Morningstar.com
BMW has 86 billion euro in debt against 97b euro in revenue:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) from Morningstar.com
Balance Sheet for Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) from Morningstar.com
Ford has $158b in revenue vs $154b in debt
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Ford Motor Co (F) from Morningstar.com
Balance Sheet for Ford Motor Co (F) from Morningstar.com
GM has $146b in revenue and $105b in debt:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for General Motors Co (GM) from Morningstar.com
Balance Sheet for General Motors Co (GM) from Morningstar.com
VW has 161b euro in debt vs 237b in revenue
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Volkswagen AG (VW) from Morningstar.com
Balance Sheet for Volkswagen AG (VW) from Morningstar.com
bdy0627
Active Member
They've had great revenue growth. Tesla is currently built for about 400-500k deliveries annually, so it still has a ways to go to grow into what they have established production-wise. This is just with Sparks and Fremont.
Depending on how you calculate your it, Tesla debt can also include solar debts that are fully covered by income from solar customers. Not sure if Jonas accounted for that or not...including those debts can be misleading.
ZachF
Active Member
The debt argument is especially silly when you compare it to GM. During bankruptcy GM had most of it's debt wiped out, and it has gone on a debt spree... what has it used most of that debt for? Stock buybacks and dividend payments. 
GM revenue is less than it was in nominal terms in 1998.
GM revenue, debt, debt as%ofrevenue:
2014: $155,929m $46,841m 30.0%
2015: $152,356m $63,111m 41.4%
2016: $166,380m $84,628m 50.9%
2017: $145,588m $94,219m 64.7%
2018: $145,828m $104,951m 72.0%
GM revenue is less than it was in nominal terms in 1998.
GM revenue, debt, debt as%ofrevenue:
2014: $155,929m $46,841m 30.0%
2015: $152,356m $63,111m 41.4%
2016: $166,380m $84,628m 50.9%
2017: $145,588m $94,219m 64.7%
2018: $145,828m $104,951m 72.0%
bdy0627
Active Member
Jonas must have some angle for the debt ratio numbers he provided to institutional investors on the call. The media is now quoting those numbers. What would he have to use to get those numbers?
ZachF
Active Member
Tesla, revenue, debt, debt%ofrev
2014: $3,198m $2,467m 77.1%
2015: $4,046m $2,715m 67.1%
2016: $7,000m $7,128m 101.8%
2017: $11,759m $10,315m 87.7%
2018: $21,461m $11,972m 55.8%
bdy0627
Active Member
Jonas estimated $13B gross debt, $8.4B net debt at the end of Q1.
Dropbox - TSLA-Morgan Stanley call-5-22-19.MP3 - Simplify your life
ZachF
Active Member
ZachF
Active Member
$13b in gross debt is probably close, but most other major automakers have $100+ billion in gross debt.
bdy0627
Active Member
More info on Jonas' debt comments from the call. Market cap has obviously collapsed over the last 6 months due to the massive drop in the stock, so that heavily skews EV.
From the call:
From the call:
Estimates $13B gross debt, $8.4B net debt at end of Q1
- 1 year ago, there was substantially less debt and market cap was much larger
- Gross and net debt as a percentage of market cap are at all time highs now
- Gross debt is 50% of revenues compared with 10% at F and GM, 2-5% at VW and BMW
is anyone else having trouble getting to tmc lately? it used to happen once in a while. now its daily. browser keeps timing out or crashes.
clearing cache etc doesn’t work. just traffic increase? what gives?
aside from the fact i get more done without it...i rather prefer to have the choice myself
only happens from iphone-safari
desktop pc works fine - weird
Wooloomooloo
Member
OK thanks for explaining.
To answer your last point, if this very hypothetical situation occurred, and "everyone" bought into it, the revenue and returns on the robo-taxi would plummet because there would be an oversupply. I mean, why would you pay to use someone else's robo-taxi when you have your own that can drop you off and pick you up? There would be a reasonably finite window of opportunity to profit from this.
I have it happen on the desktop. I suspect it depends upon the carrier now that there is no net neutrality.
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