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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Gee, somebody else said that not too long ago. But he was an idiot so still not sure if there is a case. :rolleyes:
Anyone who had Jan-17-2020 calls expired/sold/exercised could claim suffered a loss because of the petition, no?

Not including whoever sold shares, you are not true long, and don’t belong here. /s
 
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Sorry, that's wrong, in today's Frankfurt trading TSLA actually went up +2.3%, from $504.10 (the Nasdaq after market closing price on Friday, which Frankfurt followed almost immediately after open) to $515.50.

The +1% you saw was relative to the 4pm ET Nasdaq closing price of $510.32 - not against the final after hours price of $504.10 at 8pm ET. It's a multi-market charting artifact.

So this was a pretty good day for TSLA. :D

I disagree with this reasoning. You never compare prices using the after-hours price from the previous day. The fact that it's trading in Germany doesn't change this.
 
Agree with premiums going up prior to earnings. For me, the uncertainty is what happens to them the day after earnings are reported. I've seen them go either way without any regard to the actual value of the earnings, and for me there lies the rub.

For OTM call contracts expiring on Jan. 31st, how are the premiums expected to evolve as the ER on Jan. 29 approaches?

In principle, the decreasing number of days left before expiry should leave such contracts with less probability to end up ITM, causing a downwards pressure on the premium.

How will the markets expectation to the ER affect this basic pricing mechanism?
 
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Sorry, that's wrong, in today's Frankfurt trading TSLA actually went up +2.3%, from $504.10 (the Nasdaq after market closing price on Friday, which Frankfurt followed almost immediately after open) to $515.50.

The +1% you saw was relative to the 4pm ET Nasdaq closing price of $510.32 - not against the final after hours price of $504.10 at 8pm ET. It's a multi-market charting artifact.

So this was a pretty good day for TSLA. :D

I can't see that. I went back to my post to clarify that the 4.75 € upwards move by the SP is simply the change from Friday's close (in Frankfurt) at 460.15 € - which is a relative change of 4.75 / 460.15 = 1.03%.
 
Great news! Let supercharge.info know!

The Eastern Europe expansion has been going quite apace as Tesla prepares to expand European sales eastward. Hungary is now fully covered, and Poland is mostly covered. I know they really want to get into EV-friendly Ukraine and Romania ;)
Just send the information to @BlueShift or @Chuq here on TMC.


or me. <==Thank you. Edited to add your name.


Two weeks ago I took the time to create an account on forum.supercharge.info and created a post with new information about a supercharger.

As of this moment my account is "on hold" until a "staff member" deems it trustworthy, meaning that my post & info has gone nowhere.

While I like to take time to contribute to various crowd-sourcing efforts (I have more than 50k contributions on Wikipedia), I can so far not see any point in contributing to supercharge.info.
Karen has forwarded your post to the forum. Keith should respond within some delay. Also, I’m confused. I got wn automatic response from the site, as a confirm your email type thing, or are you trying to become a mod? That usually takes a longer response.
 
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I disagree with this reasoning. You never compare prices using the after-hours price from the previous day. The fact that it's trading in Germany doesn't change this.

$504.10 was the last traded Nasdaq price, and there was significant volume in after-hours: almost half a million shares. If nothing happened over the weekend and sentiment remained the same we'd have opened around $504 tomorrow.


Frankfurt open was proof of this: quickly after the open the price set to around $504, or €454:

upload_2020-1-20_9-25-15-png.502394

That was Frankfurt tracking down to the Nasdaq AH closing price until around 9am.

So the genuine TSLA price increase today was +2.3%.

Changes in price levels matter relative to the last traded price at meaningful volumes.
 
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I can't see that. I went back to my post to clarify that the 4.75 € upwards move by the SP is simply the change from Friday's close (in Frankfurt) at 460.15 € - which is a relative change of 4.75 / 460.15 = 1.03%.

Yes, that's accurate but misleading: once we clean out the multi-exchange artifacts TSLA appreciated +2.3% today, from $504 to $515.5, see my other comment.
 
$504.10 was the last traded Nasdaq price, and there was significant volume in after-hours: almost half a million shares. If nothing happened over the weekend and sentiment remained the same we'd have opened around $504 tomorrow.


Frankfurt open was proof of this: quickly after the open the price set to around $504, or €454:

upload_2020-1-20_9-25-15-png.502394


So the genuine TSLA price increase today was +2.3%.

Changes in price levels matter relative to the last traded price at meaningful volumes.

I see your point, but I still disagree. You're adding in a second low-reliability data point (after-hours trading) to an already low-reliability data point (German trading). The early German trading was simply taking its cue from the after-hours trading, and quickly rejected it. Note that there was no real reason for either the drop or the recovery. It's more informative to ignore it and just use the US close and the German close (to whatever degree you think the German trading is informative anyway).
 
I see your point, but I still disagree. You're adding in a second low-reliability data point (after-hours trading) to an already low-reliability data point (German trading). The early German trading was simply taking its cue from the after-hours trading, and quickly rejected it. Note that there was no real reason for either the drop or the recovery. It's more informative to ignore it and just use the US close and the German close (to whatever degree you think the German trading is informative anyway).

Friday's after-hours trading wasn't low reliability, because volume was particularly strong compared to the baseline: 498,000 shares traded, which dropped the price from $510 to $504.10.

For all intents and purposes TSLA closed at $504 on Friday, not $510, and had absolutely nothing changed in sentiment over the weekend and macros were flat it would have opened close to $504 tomorrow. This has happened numerous times in the past: pre-market starts price discovery from the last after-hours price, not the closing price.

Arguably Frankfurt is very low volume - but historically it doesn't exaggerate TSLA price movements most of the time.

So if you want to say that we shouldn't read much into Frankfurt price action, that's a fair point.

But if we want to talk about how much the TSLA price really changed today in Frankfurt trading, it was +2.3%, not +1%.

Falsifiable prediction: if things don't change in the next 11 hours then TSLA will open at around $515 in pre-market trading, +2.3% higher than the $504 it closed on Friday, or higher.
 
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Friday's after-hours trading wasn't low reliability, because volume was particularly strong compared to the baseline: 498,000 shares traded, which dropped the price from $510 to $504.10.

For all intents and purposes TSLA closed at $504 on Friday, not $510, and had absolutely nothing changed in sentiment over the weekend and macros were flat it would have opened close to $504 tomorrow.

Arguably Frankfurt is very low volume - but historically it doesn't exaggerate TSLA price movements most of the time.

But if we want to talk about how much the TSLA price really changed today in Frankfurt trading, it was +2.3%.

Falsifiable prediction: if things don't change in the next 11 hours then TSLA will open at around $515 in pre-market trading, +2.3% higher than the $504 it closed on Friday, or higher.

But official daily change numbers don't ever take into account after hours trading
 
For OTM call contracts expiring on Jan. 31st, how are the premiums expected to evolve as the ER on Jan. 29 approaches?

In principle, the decreasing number of days left before expiry should leave such contracts with less probability to end up ITM, causing a downwards pressure on the premium.

How will the markets expectation to the ER affect this basic pricing mechanism?
As someone holding some jan 31 600calls, premiums shouldve spiked upon confirmation of the ER being within their expiration. Should stay around whatever we see on tuesday up until the ER itself. (note value of the calls will move with the SP) premiums may drop after ER but the SP could move another 18%. (maybe??)
Yes every day we trade flat the cost of Jan 31s will go down. If we trade up theyll remain the same or increase in price.

If the stock doesnt move on the 29th yes youll be able to buy options a lot cheaper. If it shoots up, sure the IV may drop but option cost could still be 20-2000% more expensive depending on what youre looking at.
In my opinion if you expect the stock to be over 530 after the ER I suspect youd be better buying now than when its 530-650.
Decisions youll have to make for yourself. I got lower cost at the risk of Not being included in the ER which almost would have assured these 600s go to 0 so that was and still is a bit of a gamble. Now that its more likely to expire ITM the price goes up!
One could pinpoint targets you need post ER better if we knew what calls you had in mind. How bullish are you? :D
 
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Friday's after-hours trading wasn't low reliability, because volume was particularly strong compared to the baseline: 498,000 shares traded, which dropped the price from $510 to $504.10.

For all intents and purposes TSLA closed at $504 on Friday, not $510, and had absolutely nothing changed in sentiment over the weekend and macros were flat it would have opened close to $504 tomorrow.

Arguably Frankfurt is very low volume - but historically it doesn't exaggerate TSLA price movements most of the time.

But if we want to talk about how much the TSLA price really changed today in Frankfurt trading, it was +2.3%.

Falsifiable prediction: if things don't change in the next 11 hours then TSLA will open at around $515 in pre-market trading, +2.3% higher than the $504 it closed on Friday, or higher.

I think you're underestimating the potential for manipulation in after-hours trading, regardless of volume. If you think TSLA should have opened at $504.10 based on the after-hours trading, then the manipulators are doing a great job. It's obvious why they'd want the recent drop to continue, given the appearance of a recent parabolic top. Again, this drop was quickly rejected in Germany based on no new news.
 
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But official change numbers don't ever take into account after hours trading

That's a price display artifact, with some effect on inexperienced or lazy investors, to the great delight of after hours and pre-market arbitrageurs. :D

But what we should be interested here on the TMC investor forum is the "real" current price of TSLA and changes to it, not display artifacts.