Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dare]

Interesting parallel coming up on CNBC this morning.

How does BO hold at about 320 as this stream of condemning news pours out over months? This morning it was finally discussed that the 737 Max might not come back and there will just be a bailout.

This strikes me as a model that will be used for the auto industry. Faulty design decisions be it ICE propulsion or air frame decisions can be forgiven if the economic impact is significant enough. Once one gov't does it then others may follow.

Part of the problem is that consolidations of competitors over decades diminishes the ability of competitor buyouts when there are only a very few left.

BA

I’ve never seen a company hit with so much disastrous news with such a relatively minor impact on the share price. Too big to fail already baked in I suppose.

 

[FrankSG]

Interesting parallel coming up on CNBC this morning.

How does BO hold at about 320 as this stream of condemning news pours out over months? This morning it was finally discussed that the 737 Max might not come back and there will just be a bailout.

This strikes me as a model that will be used for the auto industry. Faulty design decisions be it ICE propulsion or air frame decisions can be forgiven if the economic impact is significant enough. Once one gov't does it then others may follow.

Part of the problem is that consolidations of competitors over decades diminishes the ability of competitor buyouts when there are only a very few left.

How would this work for the automotive industry though?

Good luck to the governments bailing out companies with obsolete technology that are unable to add anything of value to the world.

Bailout, only to go bankrupt again a couple of years later, because they can't produce any compelling EVs.

Three bankruptcies for GM in two decades?

 

[SageBrush]

For a MM that does a huge amount of selling of both calls and puts in the same security, a large portion of the delta for calls and puts cancels itself out, limiting how many shares need to be purchased / sold in order to hedge.

Thank you Karen.

I didn't realize that we are talking about hedging delimited by the options environment. I was thinking about options as hedges for stock purchases (or shorts.)

 

[AudubonB]

Keep ANY discussion re BA laser-focused on TSLA.

 

[lascavarian]

How would this work for the automotive industry though?

Well there is a parallel in that both VW and BA have finished product just sitting while there is some SW miracle about to happen. I guess (a real guess) that the local Gov't could just buy the product. There was this thing called "cash for clunkers" at one time and this has a similar rhyme to it.

A nice push of "free" cash could be the start to release pressure and encourage more focus on EV/Tesla competition.

 

[replicant]

VW CEO says race is on with Tesla

 

[SageBrush]

The very complexity and comprehensiveness of SAP guarantees inflexibility, in turn producing update and change times measured in year, at best in quarters.

In very general terms I know a parallel story in the realm of electronic medical records, in part because my son works for EPIC as a programmer.

That company is huge and very successful, in no small part because they started early and benefit from regulatory friction.
However, their software foundation is a flat database written 50 years ago called MUMPS with its own language so archaic and nasty it has to be seen to be believed. I doubt there are more than a few dozen people still proficient in its use; but for sure it has not itself been developed for a long, long time.

The user facing software is mostly written in Visual Basic, and then there are a hodgepodge of tools used by the programmers that may be decades old. They can do what others cannot, but soon enough a competitor built on a vastly superior foundation with modern tools is going to wipe them out.

NOTHING is easy at EPIC. The programmers involved in maintenance type duties remind me of the old mainframe technicians who were wiped out by personal computers and an army of Office users.

---
Regarding SAP and VW, that is like asking EPIC to take on the task of building the software for VW

 

[Unpilot]

Can anyone recommend a mobile friendly site to see pre_market pricing and volume?

Thanks

 

[ProfTournesol]

VW CEO says race is on with Tesla

Let's see. Fast moving, adoption and changing are not really words that fit with a German company. VW will also have a lot of issues with unions when they have to lay off at lot of people because of the changes.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Can anyone recommend a mobile friendly site to see pre_market pricing and volume?

Thanks

I suspect your asking because of the rapid swings in premarket swings this am. Suspect it is high. Look at Germany the volume there already at full day level with most coming in the last two hrs

 

[SO16]

In very general terms I know a parallel story in the realm of electronic medical records, in part because my son works for EPIC as a programmer.

That company is huge and very successful, in no small part because they started early and benefit from regulatory friction.
However, their software foundation is a flat database written 50 years ago called MUMPS with its own language so archaic and nasty it has to be seen to be believed. I doubt there are more than a few dozen people still proficient in its use; but for sure it has not itself been developed for a long, long time.

The user facing software is mostly written in Visual Basic, and then there are a hodgepodge of tools used by the programmers that may be decades old. They can do what others cannot, but soon enough a competitor built on a vastly superior foundation with modern tools is going to wipe them out.

NOTHING is easy at EPIC. The programmers involved in maintenance type duties remind me of the old mainframe technicians who were wiped out by personal computers and an army of Office users.

---
Regarding SAP and VW, that is like asking EPIC to take on the task of building the software for VW

Interesting. I’m familiar with Cerner and that system is in the same boat. Many legacy HR systems like Lawson are quite antiquated as well. This makes it ripe for new systems like workday to come in and take over.

The legacy systems are difficult to work with and really difficult to enhance. Same thing applies to Tesla and automotive. Tesla having a more fresh platform will make future enhancements so much easier compared to legacy automakers. Unless the legacy companies start from scratch on a product/process, they will continuously be hampered by those outdated systems. So all this supposed “value” that these companies have in regards to their legacy systems is actually a MAJOR hinderance in the long run.

 

[FrankSG]

Well there is a parallel in that both VW and BA have finished product just sitting while there is some SW miracle about to happen. I guess (a real guess) that the local Gov't could just buy the product. There was this thing called "cash for clunkers" at one time and this has a similar rhyme to it.

A nice push of "free" cash could be the start to release pressure and encourage more focus on EV/Tesla competition.

I don't believe the automotive industry's problems can be solved by money just like that.

It would certainly help some of them, and Volkswagen which I think is in the best position, albeit still a very precarious one, would have much better odds of survival.

But even $100B in cash doesn't overnight:

• Erase a multi-year disadvantage in EV technologies (batteries, motors, powertrains, electronics, etc.)
• Create a more nimble organization that's good at software
• Change opinions of CEOs and managers who think BEVs will remain a niche
• Get dealerships excited about selling EVs and making less money from service
• Change the fact that non-autonomous vehicles are going to look a lot less appealing if Tesla manages to solve autonomy in the next few years

I don't believe bailouts will save the automotive industry long term. Mergers, acquisitions, and bailouts may delay things, and could save one or two manufacturers, but I think the vast majority has no chance of survival (BMW, Suzuki, Ford, probably Toyota).

 

[SageBrush]

Can anyone recommend a mobile friendly site to see pre_market pricing and volume?

I have not tried it on mobile, and it does not auto-refresh.
In addition, other people here post ~ 2x volumes so I presume it is only counting NASDAQ

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Quotes

 

[FrankSG]

Can anyone recommend a mobile friendly site to see pre_market pricing and volume?

Thanks

I haven't checked this on mobile, but this would probably suit your needs:

Premarket Screener - MarketWatch

 

[ZachF]

During this year's shareholders' meeting there was an audience question about "Are we being aggressive enough in China?". Elon's response:

1:18:48

I do think they'll get to 500k, maybe even more... but only 150 of it will be Model 3s. The rest will be Model Ys, perhaps even a 'Model 2' someday too.

 

[Tslynk67]

Can anyone recommend a mobile friendly site to see pre_market pricing and volume?

Thanks

CNBC shows volume: TSLA: Tesla Inc - Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBC

They have an iOS app with a decent watchlist. I tried the same with Yahoo app and didn't like it at all.

Trying to get an Apple Watch pre-market ticker, used to be several, but they all dissappeared...

 

[Krugerrand]

I can chime in, Grand Noob that I am.

I ignore the 'delta' prop and thing about the hedge. A hedge is a contrary wager meant to deleverage the overall wager.

I think. Any corrections ?

Seems to me it means you bet $20 on the favorite 6 horse to win and then bet $2 on horses 1 thru 5 and 7 thru 11 all long-shots - just in case and to make sure that you come out of the race with the original $20 you bet on the favorite in your pocket, while having actually bet $40.

 

[Tslynk67]

MM's trying to walk it to red before main market. It's a bit of a thriller today, I have no idea what's going to happen next...

 

[Unpilot]

I suspect your asking because of the rapid swings in premarket swings this am. Suspect it is high. Look at Germany the volume there already at full day level with most coming in the last two hrs

I am and have used all the ones referenced above
None really work for me.

 

[Krugerrand]

VW CEO says race is on with Tesla

Hate to break it to the guy, but the race started about 8 years ago. To catch up will require Tesla break both legs, be trapped in quicksand and have an elephant sitting on its chest.

I want to think this guy is on the ball and has a chance, but having seen his many and often times contradicting comments, he’s not and doesn’t.