Recent Electrek article regarding production of the new Fiat 500e:
The return of the Fiat 500e, and its outsized meaning for EVs - Electrek
“In 2019, Fiat said it would invest nearly $800 million on the new 500e, including a new production line in Mirafiori, Italy. Fiat said it would make
80,000 units a year of the 500e, starting in the second quarter of 2020.” (Emphases mine).
This is the first time I have seen any projections of FCA 2020 EV production. So I plugged these numbers into my FCA-Tesla Pool model to assess the implication for 2020 CO2 emission penalty reduction. All the previous assumptions and references in the following link are used (I’ll update when 2019 EU sales and emission figures are released) unless called out below.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
New Assumptions:
I assumed Fiat can produce
and sell 40,000 500e’s in the EU in 2020. The 500 is a popular model – around 188,000 Fiat 500/Abarth 500’s were sold in Europe in 2018 (this does NOT include the 4-door 500L and 500X), so replacing 40,000 of these with 500e’s represents a 21% model substitution.
http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/fiat/fiat-500/
The 2018 total FCA fleet size of ~700,000 was retained and the average fleet emissions (124 g/km) and emission target (92 g/km) were applied to the postulated remaining 660,000 ICE vehicles.
Results:
The 40,000 500e’s would absorb
all of the available 2020 “Super-Credits” - 20,700 ZEV’s @ €19,500 penalty reduction per ZEV, plus 19,300 “regular” ZEV credits of €9,000 per ZEV for a
total penalty reduction of around €577 million.
This still leaves €1,138 million penalty to be offset by Teslas in the pool –
around 126,000 would be required. If we retain our working assumption of a 50% penalty reduction payment to Tesla, that would be
€569 million for 2020.
Even if FCA "only" sells 20,000 500e's in 2020, that will still scoop up nearly all the Super-Credits for a penalty reduction of around
€390 million. Not a bad strategy.