Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I think the absurd under-valuation of the last couple of years might be skewing your idea of what is reasonable valuation. The fact that it corrected this imbalance so rapidly has you mistakenly believing it must be over-valued now.



Whenever I think something is insane, but then I notice other, seemingly normal people, think it's normal, I have to ask myself if maybe I have some misconceptions about reality. I would suggest that the people who participated in the offering at $767 not only knew what they were doing but they got a pretty good deal.

Some of us have a bit of PTSD I think. That explains why I was less bullish than the general market when the stock was in the 700s, despite sticking to my long term thesis where the stock hits 3-5k+. That doesn't make sense because this is what I expected to happen at some point.

 

[lklundin]

Something just occurred to me wrt the court-ordered halt of tree felling at the Giga Berlin. It seems that while the early complaints concerning the possible negative effects on the local wildlife and drinking water availability were a serious consideration and were therefore addressed as such by both Tesla and the local administration, this latest petition from the Green League is seen by most, on all sides of the political spectrum as well as by regular people, as a stupid complaint or as an excuse to delay a major project which would bring significant economical benefits to the region.
So, unintentionally, by being exposed to these ridiculous attacks Tesla may have gained a lot of support from the public, even from those who were skeptical at first. It's difficult to see how, once this temporary hurdle is surpassed, there will be other significant roadblocks from various protest groups etc. when they consider the visible public reaction of support for Tesla in the current situation. Any such group trying to stop this project now would simply subject themselves to public ridicule.
So it might be smooth sailing (at least when it comes to senseless objections, possibly even excessive bureaucracy) for Tesla in Germany.

To your excellent point, I just want to add a bizarre detail from an interview with chairman of VLAB (the Bavarian environmentalist org that protests GF4):

This gentleman argues that the industry should expand in poorer countries, not only to benefit these countries, but also to _make Germany less attractive for immigrants_:

@GF4Tesla..️️.build #GigaBerlin. on Twitter

If it wasn't for the 10 immigrants gunned down yesterday in Hanau, it would be laughable...

 

[lklundin]

IMHO, no way a M3LR will use LFP. LFP is too low energy density.

Exactly, that's why the Standard Range can use LFP - leaving more of the NCM cells for the Long Range.

 

[lklundin]

This does not make sense. If Tesla can get significantly cheaper cells by simply switching from Panasonic to CATL, why they stick with Panasonic for all these years?

It does make sense. Tesla designed their LR variants around the best chemistry. For the Standard Range, they can manage with less efficient cells so they use those cheaper ones, saving both cost there and freeing up more of the better performing cells for the Long Range variants.

Shortly after the launch of the Model 3, Tesla could not get enough NCM 2170 cells, so they introduced the Medium Range (LeMuR), to use fewer cells per car. Seen in that light, it makes a lot of sense that Tesla has been looking for a better way to make more cars with their still limited supply of 2170 NCM cells.

 

[Chocochip]

To your excellent point, I just want to add a bizarre detail from an interview with chairman of VLAB (the Bavarian environmentalist org that protests GF4):

This gentleman argues that the industry should expand in poorer countries, not only to benefit these countries, but also to _make Germany less attractive for immigrants_:

@GF4Tesla..️️.build #GigaBerlin. on Twitter

If it wasn't for the 10 immigrants gunned down yesterday in Hanau, it would be laughable...

That statement is a typical dog-whistle for the xenophobes / racists that might get behind this protest. Strange that Tesla somehow got connected with this type of rhetoric...

 

[lascavarian]

For those that online trade: MS buying eTrade for $13B.

This is annoying. Started online trading with Prodigy and PCFN back in the 80’s I think. PCFN begat DLJ begat begat begat eTrade. I never had to move my account. I don’t like that B of A owns Merrill and now this with MS.

I may have to go through the hassle of moving accts after all these years. Security is a concern. I like the fingerprint confirmation. Face ID is a horrible idea I wish would be put out of its misery with extreme prejudice (don’t get me started).

 

[mars_or_bust]

To your excellent point, I just want to add a bizarre detail from an interview with chairman of VLAB (the Bavarian environmentalist org that protests GF4):

This gentleman argues that the industry should expand in poorer countries, not only to benefit these countries, but also to _make Germany less attractive for immigrants_:

@GF4Tesla..️️.build #GigaBerlin. on Twitter

If it wasn't for the 10 immigrants gunned down yesterday in Hanau, it would be laughable...

Yeah, something that seems universal - extreme enviromentalists are in many ways similar to extreme right wingers. It is a mistake to look at either of these fanatic groups as good guys.

That is why I am not surprised at all at this the extremists are giving Tesla...

Hope Tesla pulls through with this in Germany. If not, hope Tesla has an EU backup - Holland perhaps, Poland? Too bad for UK and Tesla about Brexit - without Brexit I am 95% sure Tesla would have its European factory in UK -a much much more business friendly country than anywhere in the EU.

 

[Nocturnal]

Yeah, something that seems universal - extreme enviromentalists are in many ways similar to extreme right wingers. It is a mistake to look at either of these fanatic groups as good guys.

That is why I am not surprised at all at this clusterfuck the extremists are giving Tesla...

Hope Tesla pulls through with this in Germany. If not, hope Tesla has an EU backup - Holland perhaps, Poland? Too bad for UK and Tesla about Brexit - without Brexit I am 95% sure Tesla would have its European factory in UK -a much much more business friendly country than anywhere in the EU.

Well, Scotland and Northern Ireland may be an option in that (unlikely) scenario.

To your excellent point, I just want to add a bizarre detail from an interview with chairman of VLAB (the Bavarian environmentalist org that protests GF4):

This gentleman argues that the industry should expand in poorer countries, not only to benefit these countries, but also to _make Germany less attractive for immigrants_:

@GF4Tesla..️️.build #GigaBerlin. on Twitter

That's like me making my home more run down to deter burglars. ​

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon won.

 

[lklundin]

The latest according to German tabloid Bild: Justiz-Krimi um die geplante Tesla-Autofabrik in Brandenburg



Also, Bild reports decision will be made tonight.

Sounds like a likely outcome to me. That way, Tesla would lose 3 months instead of more than half a year. Hopefully just tolerable...

I read it more positively. Yes, Tesla may get the actual construction permit only in May.

But assuming that the OVG court strikes down the protest this week Tesla can go on with their preparatory work. Cutting down the trees is quickly done (and is urgent), but after that they can continue with preparatory groundwork, removal of (the majority of) the root structures, cable laying, water supply, sewage lines, road work (already ongoing), removal of the rubble hill left by the STASI, proper fencing, and probably more.

So between that and May, not that much time needs to be lost.

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon won.

Back in December Bloodsport must have had a moment of clarity because he tweeted something along the lines of "maybe we are wrong about Tesla". He seems to have reverted back after that though.

Edit, I haven't been watching those goofs at all but apparently many of the more well known guys have bailed.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Greentheonly thinks something major is brewing, as there have been no significant software releases lately:

Twitter

My bet is on first iterations of the new software that is able to use the full HW3 capacities, and not the emulation mode that is being run now - i.e. the first true FST iteration could be coming to your Tesla soon

 

[StealthP3D]

That is why I am not surprised at all at this the extremists are giving Tesla...

Hope Tesla pulls through with this in Germany. If not, hope Tesla has an EU backup - Holland perhaps, Poland? Too bad for UK and Tesla about Brexit - without Brexit I am 95% sure Tesla would have its European factory in UK -a much much more business friendly country than anywhere in the EU.

I think you're taking this way too seriously, this is really minor stuff. Happens anytime anyone wants to do something big. It's not even a very big bump in the road.

 

[Fact Checking]

I read it more positively. Yes, Tesla may get the actual construction permit only in May.

But assuming that the OVG court strikes down the protest this week Tesla can go on with their preparatory work. Cutting down the trees is quickly done (and is urgent), but after that they can continue with preparatory groundwork, removal of (the majority of) the root structures, cable laying, water supply, sewage lines, road work (already ongoing), removal of the rubble hill left by the STASI, proper fencing, and probably more.

So between that and May, not that much time needs to be lost.

Agreed, that's how I am reading it too: basically Tesla can continue almost arbitrarily by acting "at their own risk", i.e. making a binding promise to Brandenburg state to restore the original state of nature at their own expense, should they not get the building permit. I.e. not leave the place with half done foundations, etc.

I expect Tesla to make that kind of binding promise.

We'll see the exact wording of the court ruling.

 

[Nocturnal]

Greentheonly thinks something major is brewing, as there have been no significant software releases lately:

Twitter

My bet is on first iterations of the new software that is able to use the full HW3 capacities, and not the emulation mode that is being run now - i.e. the first true FST iteration could be coming to your Tesla soon

Saving the rollout to release just after Q1 earnings might be a really good way to soften the blow of a weak report, or blow out any remaining shorts with a good report.

Apparently the shorts are also discussing this rumor.

 

[mars_or_bust]

I think you're taking this way too seriously, this is really minor stuff. Happens anytime anyone wants to do something big. It's not even a very big bump in the road.

Hope you are right

Could be just personal frustration, as I have witnessed first hand many large projects in the EU delayed indefinitely for truly stupid reasons, involving extreme enviromentalists. Chalk it up to PTSD

 

[Curt Renz]

Saving the rollout to release just after Q1 earnings might be a really good way to soften the blow of a weak report, or blow out any remaining shorts with a good report.

Apparently the shorts are also discussing this rumor.

The sharp move to a record TSLA closing price yesterday should have triggered margin calls to short-sellers. If not complied with quickly, they are typically enforced two to five days later. That's usually done during the early hours of regular trading. We might see that beginning tomorrow morning and into next week.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Saving the rollout to release just after Q1 earnings might be a really good way to soften the blow of a weak report, or blow out any remaining shorts with a good report.

Apparently the shorts are also discussing this rumor.

The irony with that thinking is that the timing could have nothing to do with quarterly results at all, and simply be the time by when the tech is ready (or will be soon) for incorporation into products. Talk about short burn of the century...

 

[Nocturnal]

The irony with that thinking is that the timing could have nothing to do with quarterly results at all, and simply be the time by when the tech is ready (or will be soon) for incorporation into products. Talk about short burn of the century...

Yup.

A. The wave of positive press and free advertising will be crazy.
B. It will validate the "crazy" super bull thesis around robotaxi.
C. It will trigger a wave of Tesla owners to upgrade to FSD, which would be mostly pure margin.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Complaint against Giga Berlin dismissed.

@GF4Tesla..️️.build #GigaBerlin. on Twitter