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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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No, you put on a mask before meeting with these Okie oil-and-gas climate-denying nincompoops and you cordially give them some of your time and you say a few pleasant words and then you get back in your vehicle and have your driver hand you the maximum strength Purell and as you disinfect from fingertips to elbows, the driver makes a beeline for the Gulfstream, already taxi’ed into position and holding at the end of the runway, where you hop out of the car, toss the mask on the tarmac, climb up the steps of the Gulfstream, secure the door, lean into the cockpit, and tell the pilot, “punch it” then collapse in your chair, fasten the seatbelt, and as the two engines reach max thrust, you grab your phone, speed-dial the team working Austin and tell them to get that deal done even sooner.

You must be unaware of the very fast growing liberal population in Oklahoma. Notice I didn’t capitalize that word, so I’m not talking about a political group.

I’ve had a personal connection to Oklahoma for two decades. Neither the state nor its people are entirely as you’ve portrayed. They are changing with the times just like the rest of us.

For instance, the current youth there ALL know about Tesla and they covet owning one as much as a California kid.

How convenient you’ve neglected to mention that Austin COVID cases are on the rise and it’s a hot spot now. I wonder how that happened? Do you suppose it was a group of Tulsans that infiltrated the city? :rolleyes:
 
Good advice! And one more: don't spend too much time sitting behind a computer or phone scanning the TMC investor thread. Muscle atrophy guaranteed. So I just went to lift weights at the gym, which has finally reopened.
If you do curls and pushups in between scanning the TMC investor thread....does that count? :p:p:p
 
As we're talking about getting old and retiring. Quite a few of us aren't in our youth any more. I turned 54 a few weeks back, so don't consider myself old. I can't remember the last time I was sick, I'm super-fit and healthy, never felt better.

One of the most important things as you age is to retain muscle-mass and not succumb to sarcopenia - muscle wasting. As soon as you lose it, you go downhill very quickly.

So resistance training is a must - lift heavy things, regularly! Move a lot too, not necessarily vigorously, but just plenty of it. I have my Apple Watch movement ring set to 1000 active calories and I close all three rings daily. Keep active. Lift. Have a circle of friends. Socialise. Drink a little bit. And have a passion for at least something. Get outside in the sun every day.

Eat well. Regardless of whether you're carnivore or vegan, avoid processed foods. Cut out sugar, refined carbohydrates (flour) and industrial seed-oils (PUFA's) - note that most junk food is primarily made from these three cheap and deadly ingredients. Eat good fats, mono and saturated, fish and eggs, butter, etc. The body desperately needs fats and cholesterol, your brain and cell membranes are made of fats. If you're vegan, please supplement for the stuff you're missing.

That's it. Simple.

“Trouble with life is It’s about half over before you realize... It’s one of those DIY things”

:)

Fire Away!
It’s STILL the batteries, Stupid!”
 
Good advice! And one more: don't spend too much time sitting behind a computer or phone scanning the TMC investor thread. Muscle atrophy guaranteed. So I just went to lift weights at the gym, which has finally reopened.

I stopped with my gym subscription a year back, in any case I was always getting injuries trying to deadlift too much...

Instead I found a really good routine that I can do at home when it suits me: goblet squat, push-ups, kettlebell swings, kettlebell press, chin-ups. Takes 15-30 minutes per day, depending on how much I rest between sets, injuries have stopped and gains increased.
 
If you do curls and pushups in between scanning the TMC investor thread....does that count? :p:p:p
OT, last week I replaced 6 broken roof tiles and cleaned the solar panels 2 story, 113F, all day long. Then did the pool drain and clean and lost 10 lbs even after hydrating.

I'm just too cheap to pay these idiots who constantly cut corners and charge 10x what the service guy actually makes or is worth. Turning 60 next month, only see naturopaths... I sleep really well.

That muscle mass comment got me worried, can u tell? No really, my workouts are intense but not routine. I will need to learn more. My neck muscles are sick of this forum though... maybe thats how it starts?
 
I can vouch for retiring early if possible. The human body begins an inevitable decline that really begins to impact the quality of life for most in their mid-to-late sixties. And, if retiring early is not possible, at least set aside time to pursue activities and experiences that stir the soul, but require a higher level of energy than the majority of those who retire late have left in reserve. Do not enter your seventies with regret!!!

Advice!

View attachment 560606
Machu Picchu is one place best visited with substantial stamina, and solid lung capacity. Of course it is easier today than it was in the late 1970’s when I first went there. Physical capabilities can and do remain robust for many people in their early 80”s. In my mid 70’s I still easily manage my 12 km every day when I am at home.

One need to be very careful with the definition of ‘retirement’. Many people my age that I know are just as active today as they were in their 40’s and work as much too. The difference is that few of us are compelled to go to an office or factory every day. As for quality of life decline I suggest that is a relic of the decades long ago. Today health care and improved personal habits changes that calculus.

At the moment I am part of a group devoted to several major issues. Among those is investment management where the decades of experience helps us avoid pitfalls less experienced people seem to encounter. While we all decline to suggest the future will reflect the past, we still have managed a compounded rate of return substantially higher than we ddI while ‘working’. The hours now are equal or higher than before, but now we focus on deeper analysis than we did before. We also habitually take apparently higher risks that have fewer losses precisely because of that work.

Example: TSLA vs NKLA.

such examples are plentiful in numerous areas.

In sum, retirement is something I hope never to do. The very idea of doing so has exactly zero appeal for me. OTOH if my health fails I hope to retire gracefully through cessation of bodily function.
 
OT, last week I replaced 6 broken roof tiles and cleaned the solar panels 2 story, 113F, all day long. Then did the pool drain and clean and lost 10 lbs even after hydrating.

I'm just too cheap to pay these idiots who constantly cut corners and charge 10x what the service guy actually makes or is worth. Turning 60 next month, only see naturopaths... I sleep really well.

That muscle mass comment got me worried, can u tell? No really, my workouts are intense but not routine. I will need to learn more. My neck muscles are sick of this forum though... maybe thats how it starts?

I outsource any task that increase my chances of dying. Cleaning solar is definitely one of them as it is well worth the price to put the risk on others than myself.

For high worth individuals, the goal switch from making money to preserving time on earth as that becomes the only commodity money can't buy.
 
View attachment 560625

They seem to be eating/drinking in that picture - difficult to do while wearing a mask. Is that his mask on his arm, looks like he removed it just for having a snack. Also, Musk is clearly > 6 feet away from others, so he is socially distancing. My 2 cents, Musk is taking precautions without going overboard.

It's social distancing AND mask, not one or the other.
 
I outsource any task that increase my chances of dying. Cleaning solar is definitely one of them as it is well worth the price to put the risk on others than myself.

For high worth individuals, the goal switch from making money to preserving time on earth as that becomes the only commodity money can't buy.
I had a hose tied around my waist at least.

I'm still questioning these decisions, but I argue to what point do we back off from risk or intensity to one day find ourselves on the couch ordering food bc it's too dangerous to drive or walk?
I last slalom waterski'd at 58. Most my friends didn't try or used 2 skis... so lame (was a recent highschool ski reunion). One tried and pulled a leg muscle. But I trained for the event and managed to pull off the biggest wall of spray! Skiid like a 20 yr old that day.
Why is it ok to risk falling from a roof when younger? You have even more life to lose at that age. Likewise, if u lose your innerchild playfullness, how can you ever hope to be creative?

Our limits are only diminished by fear and caution. Some is good, know your limits, but don't fear them, I say.

I plan on leaving earth's gravity someday. I don't care how old I am (but spaceX might).
 
I think SP500 inclusion is the most important short term force driving TSLA and I'm trying to understand it.
I'm not as smart and not as good with numbers and details as some people here, so trying to put together a simplistic logical model for myself (based on some facts and assumptions):

July 15 2019 TSLA closing price $253.50, short interest 41.4 m shares
Jun 15 2020 TSLA $990.90 SI 15.1 m (facts)

So during the forced buying of 26.3 m shares TSLA rose 390%. This is an assumption, maybe the major driving force of the price was something else (i.e. additional purchases from new and old shareholders).

FactChecking on twitter assumed that during the inclusion we will face a force buying of 77m shares (this is a BIG assumption and a cornerstone of the whole idea). Let's make it 60m shares, or even 52m - 2 times 26m that was squeezed recently.

With the non-linear nature of the process, we can only guess what the price increase will be if we squeeze 2-3x more shares during a shorter timeframe. 3x more? 10x more?

The main question I think is where those shares will come from? How many institutional and private investors will sell at what price levels and will it be enough for those who are forced to buy?

Most of the shareholders seem already well off at current levels and might opt for cashing out at 2x-3x-4x current price - will it be enough to stop price increase?
Will Tesla make a secondary offering to get some additional cash and help to keep the price down?
 
I had a hose tied around my waist at least.

I'm still questioning these decisions, but I argue to what point do we back off from risk or intensity to one day find ourselves on the couch ordering food bc it's too dangerous to drive or walk?
I last slalom waterski'd at 58. Most my friends didn't try or used 2 skis... so lame (was a recent highschool ski reunion). One tried and pulled a leg muscle. But I trained for the event and managed to pull off the biggest wall of spray! Skiid like a 20 yr old that day.
Why is it ok to risk falling from a roof when younger? You have even more life to lose at that age. Likewise, if u lose your innerchild playfullness, how can you ever hope to be creative?

Our limits are only diminished by fear and caution. Some is good, know your limits, but don't fear them, I say.

I plan on leaving earth's gravity someday. I don't care how old I am (but spaceX might).

The purpose of extending life is to spend time with love ones and to accumulate new experiences. Not just for the sake of living longer im a cave. Cleaning solar panels increase the chance of dying from a fatal slip and fall while not netting any meaningful experience (except for the first time you do it). At least to me it's not worth it but to each their own.
 
No CO2 (or other) emissions if using renewable energy. Multiple times more efficient than purely resistive electric heat (climate dependent).

I'm resisting pedant mode, and shall instead add to your point.

The first thing to note is that there is significant heating energy demand.

1 unit of input energy
v
[Solar/wind/geothermal generation, estimated energy return on investment 4 to 51 and rising]
v
4 to 51 units of energy, rising
v
[Heat pump, Coefficient of performance 2 - 4 ]
v
2 x 4 to 4 x 51 = 8 to 204 units of energy, rising

US use by sector:
Energy in the United States - Wikipedia

Now imagine how things change if:
- replace existing electricity generation to renewable generation
- shift fuel heating to use of heat pumps and other electrically-powered heat storage
- shift most transportation to electricity.

It would radically reduce the amount of fossil energy needed.
 
The purpose of extending life is to spend time with love ones and to accumulate new experiences. Not just for the sake of living longer im a cave. Cleaning solar panels increase the chance of dying from a fatal slip and fall while not netting any meaningful experience (except for the first time you do it). At least to me it's not worth it but to each their own.

I love my family, indeed. My interest in longevity is simple, curiosity. My Grandfather was born in 1900 and passed in 1989. It boggles my mind, considering the changes he witnessed. The next twenty years will see amazing change and technological advancement.

I hope to eek out a front row seat, awestruck for just as long as I can; contemplating what my grandchildren will witness.
 
FactChecking on twitter assumed that during the inclusion we will face a force buying of 77m shares (this is a BIG assumption and a cornerstone of the whole idea). Let's make it 60m shares, or even 52m - 2 times 26m that was squeezed recently.
I am not sure where the estimate of 77m shares based on. Currently TSLA is already about 51% owned by institutions. Compared to other popular stocks such as aapl, jnj, mmm, amzn, msft, .... they are between 60%-70% institution owned. Taking the mid-point, there will be about 15% of TSLA shares to be forced owned by institutions after S&P 500 inclusion, equating to about 28m shares. Do I take the wrong equation?
 
I love my family, indeed. My interest in longevity is simple, curiosity. My Grandfather was born in 1900 and passed in 1989. It boggles my mind, considering the changes he witnessed. The next twenty years will see amazing change and technological advancement.

I hope to eek out a front row seat, awestruck for just as long as I can; contemplating what my grandchildren will witness.
Good on you mate! I like your life philosophy. When thinking of your grandfather, it got me thinking of all of the changes we've seen since 1989 and the many just in this century! It truly boggles the mind, especially my little one...