Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

So, if there is a tslaqq class action to fight this fake news and fake analysis I’d be happy to count my shared in. I imagine some law firm would be interested in this with TMC’s collective shares. I’d guess there’s 10’s or 100’s of thousands of shares here.
If someone has a dm going to get people interested in some class action countersuits, counter me in please.

Would there be a way for stock holders in the EU to join?

 

[Fact Checking]

Anyone notice the new Model S Standard Range is no longer available? When was the last time anyone saw it for sale? This was the 80/85kWh battery released at the end of February.

Estimated delivery is also now April for Model S. Still showing March for Model X.

I saw it a couple of days ago - I specifically noted it because the Model X didn't have the option. Note that Standard Range Model S is also gone from the European configurators.

So this is a pretty recent change and yet another sign that a refresh with possibly even higher prices is imminent. Anyone who likes the current prices should consider that possibility. Tesla is doing a hard inventory flush: everything must go.

 

[McMountain]

I saw the SR range model S on the Austrian Tesla web-page yesterday since I have been checking every day for the price increase.
Price increase happened today and SR model S went away.

 

[lascavarian]

I lose half of my battery capacity during the winter. That would give SR about 100-120 mile range on cold days.

This real to an extent, but not new. There may be technical improvements possible that we have not seen. The same tech that is being introduced with the new Superchargers In terms of preconditioning may have applications in a helpful way.

Plus the SR pack is new so it may hold some improvements. There should be some space available for instance.

 

[Navin]

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/rfag2r/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-exclusive---jim-cramer-extended-interview-pt--2

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I apologize if this was already posted (still catching up), but awesome new GF3 flyover video :

Concrete and box beams galore! Also roof trusses going up! All pile drivers gone - the pile driving stage is complete.

View attachment 388742

Great video Karen, thanks. Keep them coming!

Dan

 

[Fact Checking]

View attachment 388748 http://www.cc.com/video-clips/rfag2r/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-exclusive---jim-cramer-extended-interview-pt--2

Has anyone written a post here that provides a (partial) transcript and sums up the lies in text form?

 

[KarenRei]

This real to an extent, but not new. There may be technical improvements possible that we have not seen. The same tech that is being introduced with the new Superchargers In terms of preconditioning may have applications in a helpful way.

Plus the SR pack is new so it may hold some improvements. There should be some space available for instance.

Broad "range decreases by X" in the winter statements aren't helpful. The (oft-misreported) AAA study's raw data was more useful. They found that, with heating on, driving in 20°F weather...:

• Highway driving (US06) range changed by -18%; but
• City driving (UDDS) range changed by -46% (e.g. only a bit over half the range as in temperate weather)

They did not include any consideration of whether it tends to be stormier during the winter, or whether there's additional rolling losses (snow compaction, tire sliding, etc). Storms would affect highway driving more, while surface conditions would affect city driving more.

Amateur "estimations of winter range" are often misleading due to the fact that your energy consumption early in a trip is higher than it is later in a trip - you have to heat the cabin, the battery pack, and your tires and lubricants haven't heated yet, so drivetrain and rolling losses are higher. This initial "extra heating load" is an insignificant fraction of the energy of a very long trip, but for a shorter trip, it can meaningfully increase your average consumption. The AAA study was well controlled and IMHO properly accounted for this effect.

 

[serverguy247]

Wow... This was just posted on Reddit:

And counting : teslamotors

Showing 618128 cars currently "online / registered" with Tesla. Someone is about to get fired.

If end of Q4 2018 Tesla had 531268 cars delivered (is this right?), that means currently, there are 86,860 already manufactured this Q. Would probably have to take inventory into account (and take into account the original roadster numbers as they are not connected?), but still, that's a good number with a week and a half to go and the "big push" is next week... Record numbers again it seems

 

[Carl Raymond]

As a Scandinavian the above attitudes towards Elon Musk also remind me of this, possibly Nordic sentiment:
Law of Jante - Wikipedia

It would be quite natural for a victim of childhood bullying to vehemently challenge the Law of Jante.

I think we call it “tall poppy syndrome”.

 

[KarenRei]

Great video Karen, thanks. Keep them coming!

Dan

Don't thank me, thank 烏瓦 (wūwǎ)!

 

[lascavarian]

But the dropping price will bring more merger arb traders in who will tender their shares. I decided 6% wasn't good enough to bet on it, but 14% might be...

So is this 14% a reflection of a Tesla stock action or tendering disinterest?

 

[KarenRei]

Wow... This was just posted on Reddit:

And counting : teslamotors

Showing 618128 cars currently "online / registered" with Tesla. Someone is about to get fired.

If end of Q4 2018 Tesla had 531268 cars delivered (is this right?), that means currently, there are 86,860 already manufactured this Q. Would probably have to take inventory into account (and take into account the original roadster numbers as they are not connected?), but still, that's a good number with a week and a half to go and the "big push" is next week... Record numbers again it seems

Wow, what a find! Nearly 7,9k vehicles per week if correct!

 

[22522]

I saw an additional piece of comedy material here. 42K model 3s? What is he smoking? Roughly 36K went onto ships. They've probably sold more than 8K in Canada! They've sold cars in the US, too!

This appears to be deliberate short-and-distort.​

I drove to California and back in the month of March. Saw 7 trucks loaded with Teslas.

 

[replicant]

I saw it a couple of days ago - I specifically noted it because the Model X didn't have the option. Note that Standard Range Model S is also gone from the European configurators.

So this is a pretty recent change and yet another sign that a refresh with possibly even higher prices is imminent. Anyone who likes the current prices should consider that possibility. Tesla is doing a hard inventory flush: everything must go.

Or Tesla consider the LR Model 3 to be a better car, are able to make higher margin on it, produces it faster and mainteains/services it better, so they restrict the S to the most expensive variants as long as the demand is high enough for the 100 and 100D to fill the manufacturing and assembly lines.

 

[Fact Checking]

Wow... This was just posted on Reddit:

And counting : teslamotors

Showing 618128 cars currently "online / registered" with Tesla. Someone is about to get fired.

If end of Q4 2018 Tesla had 531268 cars delivered (is this right?), that means currently, there are 86,860 already manufactured this Q. Would probably have to take inventory into account (and take into account the original roadster numbers as they are not connected?), but still, that's a good number with a week and a half to go and the "big push" is next week... Record numbers again it seems

Nice find, but careful with the Q4 subtraction:

• This is apparently the factory internal tool where new vehicle batches are initiated, and "cars registered" at the end of Q4 would include all in-transit, fleet and other inventory vehicles as well - not just "delivered" vehicles.
• Leased vehicles returned and delivered again would be counted twice as deliveries.
• Scrapped vehicles would count to a few hundred at minimum as well over such time frames, and they'd increase end of Q4 total deliveries, while not being 'registered' anymore in the database.

Here's the Model 3 inventory estimate, based on delivery reports:

  ========|============|============|============|===========|=========|======
  quarter | production | deliveries | Δinventory | inventory | transit | fleet
  ========|============|============|============|===========|=========|======
  2017/Q2 |          0 |          0 |          0 |         0 |       0 |     0
  2017/Q3 |        260 |        220 |        +60 |        60 |      40 |    20
  2017/Q4 |      2,425 |      1,550 |       +875 |       935 |     860 |    75
  2018/Q1 |      9,766 |      8,180 |     +1,586 |     2,521 |   2,040 |   480
  2018/Q2 |     28,578 |     18,440 |    +10,138 |    12,659 |  11,166 | 1,493
  2018/Q3 |     53,239 |     55,840 |     -2,601 |    10,058 |   8,048 | 2,010
  2018/Q4 |     61,394 |     63,150 |     -1,756 |     8,302 |   1,010 | 7,292

I.e. 7,292 units at the end of Q4 and Model S/X inventory is even bigger.

I don't think we can use this screenshot without having a similar screenshot at the end of Q4 as well ...

 

[22522]

Broad "range decreases by X" in the winter statements aren't helpful. The (oft-misreported) AAA study's raw data was more useful. They found that, with heating on, driving in 20°F weather...:

• Highway driving (US06) range changed by -18%; but
• City driving (UDDS) range changed by -46% (e.g. only a bit over half the range as in temperate weather)

They did not include any consideration of whether it tends to be stormier during the winter, or whether there's additional rolling losses (snow compaction, tire sliding, etc). Storms would affect highway driving more, while surface conditions would affect city driving more.

Amateur "estimations of winter range" are often misleading due to the fact that your energy consumption early in a trip is higher than it is later in a trip - you have to heat the cabin, the battery pack, and your tires and lubricants haven't heated yet, so drivetrain and rolling losses are higher. This initial "extra heating load" is an insignificant fraction of the energy of a very long trip, but for a shorter trip, it can meaningfully increase your average consumption. The AAA study was well controlled and IMHO properly accounted for this effect.

Regen basically disappears in cold weather. That is why city numbers drop so much.

 

[Aieukl378]

I figure Elon's tweeting habit has cost investors around $100 or so per share and of course we don't know how the latest Twitter mess will play out but with around 172.72 million shares currently outstanding, it has probably cost investors around $1.72 billion and as Elon owns about 20% of TSLA which I guess is about 3.5 million shares, his personal loss due to Tweeting is around $350 million. This seems like a very expensive price to pay for messing around on Twitter...what do you think?

8 disagrees and no agrees!? Thought I was stating the obvious. I'd love to hear your arguments disagreers.

 

[KarenRei]

Regen basically disappears in cold weather. That is why city numbers drop so much.

A lot of it is because it takes much longer to go a given distance, e.g. more time spent sitting around in the car with the heat on. AAA also tested cold-weather driving without the heat on and the city-driving impact wasn't nearly as bad.

 

[KarenRei]

Nice find, but careful with the Q4 subtraction:

• This is apparently the factory internal tool where new vehicle batches are initiated, and "cars registered" at the end of Q4 would include all in-transit, fleet and other inventory vehicles as well - not just "delivered" vehicles.
• Leased vehicles returned and delivered again would be counted twice as deliveries.
• Scrapped vehicles would count to a few hundred at minimum as well over such time frames, and they'd increase end of Q4 total deliveries, while not being 'registered' anymore in the database.

Here's the Model 3 inventory estimate, based on delivery reports:

  ========|============|============|============|===========|=========|======
  quarter | production | deliveries | Δinventory | inventory | transit | fleet
  ========|============|============|============|===========|=========|======
  2017/Q2 |          0 |          0 |          0 |         0 |       0 |     0
  2017/Q3 |        260 |        220 |        +60 |        60 |      40 |    20
  2017/Q4 |      2,425 |      1,550 |       +875 |       935 |     860 |    75
  2018/Q1 |      9,766 |      8,180 |     +1,586 |     2,521 |   2,040 |   480
  2018/Q2 |     28,578 |     18,440 |    +10,138 |    12,659 |  11,166 | 1,493
  2018/Q3 |     53,239 |     55,840 |     -2,601 |    10,058 |   8,048 | 2,010
  2018/Q4 |     61,394 |     63,150 |     -1,756 |     8,302 |   1,010 | 7,292

I.e. 7,292 units at the end of Q4 and Model S/X inventory is even bigger.

I don't think we can use this screenshot without having a similar screenshot at the end of Q4 as well ...

What would you estimate the "actual" production number QTD is, based on realistic estimates of the above?