Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I'm back with the detailed First Call TSLA Q4 revenue estimates:

Fantastic, thank you very much!

Here's a tabulated version, sorted by revenue value (from bearish to bullish), and left off the irrelevant .1 million digits:

Evercore

UBS

JMP

Goldman Sachs

Undisclosed

Wolfe Research

BofAML

Deutsche

Roth

JPMorgan

Undisclosed

Undisclosed

Thomson First Call Consensus

Elazar Advisors

Macquiarie

RBC

Wedbush

Undisclosed

Piper

Oppenheimer

Needham

Canaccord

[TD2] $6,805m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,820m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,848m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,851m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,895m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,899m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,926m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,976m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,985m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,020m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,032m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,067m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,082m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,084m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,089m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,139m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,188m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,192m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,226m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,440m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,523m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,715m [/TD2]

Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:

• There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
  • "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
  • "Needham" of "Tesla's True Value is 'Closer to $200'" infame has the second highest revenue estimate ... Total silence from Needham after the positive Q3 earnings report.
  • "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
• Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...

Everyone who owns $TSLA stock, options or bonds and agrees that this is market manipulation which is harming investors, please file a SEC Investor Complaint:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

A sample complaint could be something like:

Suspected illegal market manipulation: two of the most bearish $TSLA analysts (Canaccord and Needham) are apparently gaming the 'Thomson First Call consensus' analyst estimates to manufacture an artificial 'miss' on $TSLA by entering artificially high Q4'2018 revenue estimates 6-8% higher than the consensus, which estimates are not consistent with their publicly bearish views of the company. Their apparent intent is to profit from any adverse price reaction, should Tesla "miss" the artificially heightened revenue consensus.

Similar suspected illegal price and market manipulation distortion of the "FactSet" consensus was performed with the January 2 Tesla (TSLA) "Delivery Report", which created a price drop from a $332 closing price on December 31 to below $300 on January 2 - a more than 10% intraday drop. Bearish analysts entered unrealistically high production estimates for Tesla, which created an artificial "consensus miss" that adversely affected investor sentiment and caused a big drop in the $TSLA price - from which short sellers profited.

As a $TSLA investor I was significantly harmed by their action.

It's a classic 'short and distort' tactic that appears to be illegal according to the Securities Act of 1933, also known as the "Truth In Securities Act".
​

I believe the SEC is obligated to at minimum read every complaint made by an investor. Even if they don't act on it, it creates a track record that later SEC administrations can use to form new policy, restrictions on short sellers, more effective regulation of Wall Street analysts, etc.

So it's helpful to file complaints even if nothing happens straight away - the squeaky wheel gets the grease, eventually.

Non-U.S. investors can file complaints as well.

(Paging @ZachShahan and @Papafox.)

 

[Tslynk67]

How many days does it take for this ship for SFO to Europe?

It’s typically 6 weeks from end of manufacturing to delivery for EU orders.

 

[Tslynk67]

To solve the problem of this thread getting OT all too often, I suggest we use the existing other threads more. A staged Karen Vs neroden Vs FC fight to the death argument would please the punters. I suggest the 3 of them get over to this thread (updated by myself with Remster32's kind updates). Suggested topic for argument:
Will the Q4 GAAP EPS beat the non-GAAP consensus from First Call of 2.25? Prof to referee.

If that is seen as too ill-considered, I have set up another thread for all OT discussion. It won't get used - but at least I can sleep at night:
OT dumping ground (no cats please - they are sacred creatures)

I’m appreciating the format of this year’s thread - a great mix of SP discussion, TA, information and good humour.

However, bitching and personal arguments should be taken to a private conversation ASAP.

 

[lklundin]

Glovis has berthed ..European Model 3 on the way .. But but, homologation.

Walter MacVane on Twitter

With all the disinformation out there, I checked and the vessel fits within the Panamax requirements.

 

[jschwefel]

Fantastic, thank you very much!

Here's a tabulated version, sorted by revenue value (from bearish to bullish), and left off the irrelevant .1 million digits:

Evercore

UBS

JMP

Goldman Sachs

Undisclosed

Wolfe Research

BofAML

Deutsche

Roth

JPMorgan

Undisclosed

Undisclosed

Thomson First Call Consensus

Elazar Advisors

Macquiarie

RBC

Wedbush

Undisclosed

Piper

Oppenheimer

Needham

Canaccord

[TD2] $6,805m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,820m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,848m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,851m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,895m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,899m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,926m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,976m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,985m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,020m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,032m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,067m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,082m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,084m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,089m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,139m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,188m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,192m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,226m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,440m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,523m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,715m [/TD2]

Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:

• There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
  • "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
  • "Needham" of "Tesla's True Value is 'Closer to $200'" infame has the second highest revenue estimate ... Total silence from Needham after the positive Q3 earnings report.
  • "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
• Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...

Everyone who owns $TSLA stock, options or bonds and agrees that this is market manipulation which is harming investors, please file a SEC Investor Complaint:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

A sample complaint could be something like:

Suspected illegal market manipulation: two of the most bearish $TSLA analysts (Canaccord and Needham) are apparently gaming the 'Thomson First Call consensus' analyst estimates to manufacture an artificial 'miss' on $TSLA by entering artificially high Q4'2018 revenue estimates 6-8% higher than the consensus, which estimates are not consistent with their publicly bearish views of the company. Their apparent intent is to profit from any adverse price reaction, should Tesla "miss" the artificially heightened revenue consensus.

Similar suspected illegal price and market manipulation distortion of the "FactSet" consensus was performed with the January 2 Tesla (TSLA) "Delivery Report", which created a price drop from a $332 closing price on December 31 to below $300 on January 2 - a more than 10% intraday drop. Bearish analysts entered unrealistically high production estimates for Tesla, which created an artificial "consensus miss" that adversely affected investor sentiment and caused a big drop in the $TSLA price - from which short sellers profited.

As a $TSLA investor I was significantly harmed by their action.

It's a classic 'short and distort' tactic that appears to be illegal according to the Securities Act of 1933, also known as the "Truth In Securities Act".
​

I believe the SEC is obligated to at minimum read every complaint made by an investor. Even if they don't act on it, it creates a track record that later SEC administrations can use to form new policy, restrictions on short sellers, more effective regulation of Wall Street analysts, etc.

So it's helpful to file complaints even if nothing happens straight away - the squeaky wheel gets the grease, eventually.

Non-U.S. investors can file complaints as well.

(Paging @ZachShahan and @Papafox.)

Completed the form and submitted to the SEC. Thanks for making it easy FC.

 

[jschwefel]

And the SEC’s response was...

Thank you for submitting your online contact to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Office of Investor Education and Advocacy. Due to a lapse in appropriations for the federal government, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is currently closed. Once an appropriation has been enacted a representative of the Office of Investor Education and Advocacy will respond to you.

In order to ensure that you receive your subscription e-mails and announcements from the SEC, please add us to your contact list, adjust your spam settings, or follow the instructions from your e-mail provider on how to prevent our e-mails from being marked "Spam" or "Junk Mail."

Please do not reply to this message directly.

Thank you,
Office of Investor Education and Advocacy


Please don’t tell anyone the SEC is closed. That will surely unleash chaos and mayhem in the markets.

 

[NicoV]

It’s typically 6 weeks from end of manufacturing to delivery for EU orders.

With a different way to ship to Europe.

It’s the first time Tesla ships to Europe via ro-ro ships AND they ship fully assembled vehicles. We’ll have to see how long this takes to end-user delivery, but it should be shorter.

 

[BLSmith2112]

Completed the form and submitted to the SEC. Thanks for making it easy FC.

Same.

 

[Fact Checking]

Due to a lapse in appropriations for the federal government, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is currently closed.

They still have the lawyers there AFAIK to support ongoing court cases (the courts are not closed) - but complaints are probably queued and will be processed once the government re-opens.

 

[AndyH]

Jaguar moved 165 I-Paces in Norway for December and ended up in 17th place for the year.

Jaguar Land Rover is really hurting because of low diesel sales and now Brexit is looming. Maybe the low volume I-Pace made in Austria will be all that's left soon. At least that will probably not be in danger of added tariffs. Except for when selling it in the UK.

 

[Buckminster]

My suggestion re the volume of posts in this thread,

1) Let this thread basically be the catch all it is

2) Create a new thread: "Tesla Material Event & TSLA Market Impacting Event Ticker"

In the new thread, only post new material information re Tesla & TSLA price movement*- from Tesla releases, to analyst reports/interviews, to Elon tweets, changes showing up on Tesla's websites, media reports, bigger picture analysis of markets Tesla is addressing (i.e. autonomy, energy storage), new trends/developments showing up in other sections of TMC with material impact (i.e, people discovering an unannounced change to new vehicles delivered), etc.

No analysis from us

No commentary/conjecture from us

Just a thread re new Tesla events.

Such a thread can be used in a matter of minutes to determine whether a 5% move in the stock is a reaction to a known event, or, for no known particular reason.

Such a thread can also be used when we might only have 20 minutes per day to scan through it and read any linked ticker items we find important to be aware of... and then call it a day for our Tesla monitoring.

The thread would have the ancillary benefit of becoming something of a reference tool- a concise chronological recording of significant Tesla developments.

All it would take is working together to build up the habit of putting such content in the new, very lean, thread.

The analysis of these events, commentary and conjecture, can carry on in this existing thread we've been using this year. The new "event ticker" thread would probably add less than 3 pages... per week : )

3) There are minor tweaks we can try to make this existing 2019 thread... the "OT" marking seems useful. I'm sure we have some other ideas for tweaks re this thread (I know I have one or two), but, first, I'm wondering if you find the "event ticker" thread an interesting idea.

If there's strong interest, I'm very confident we could make this work.


* Material information re TSLA price movement, of course, could include misinformation about Tesla. ie, the 'hit pieces' we have become quite accustom to seeing, sometimes are clearly being picked up by many media outlets, and can impact the price in the short-term. These are arguably not material Tesla events... but for hours or days, material TSLA movement events.

I have set-up the following thread:
Tesla Material Event & TSLA Market Impacting Event Ticker

Note, this new alternative dumping ground thread has 3 question unanswered. If we don't go for one of these solutions we can't really complain about excessive posts on the main thread going forwards.

Neroden has a good following in the politics thread.
The horde (of which I am one) will follow FC. If FC chooses to use the other threads more, the horde will follow. I predict no change which I am not unhappy with. Happy in a sewer me...

 

[cheshire cat]

Jaguar Land Rover is really hurting because of low diesel sales and now Brexit is looming. Maybe the low volume I-Pace made in Austria will be all that's left soon. At least that will probably not be in danger of added tariffs. Except for when selling it in the UK.

What with added tariffs on imported IPace and tariffs on batteries and power trains exported to the Eu eventually, it's going to be Even more expensive than it is now !

 

[mongo]

Not sure why people disagreed with you here?! It's the actual tweet for crying out loud!

Maybe because he posted a render and claimed it was a real picture. Even after people told him it wasn't he claimed it was real.

Due to a posting error, (and possibly confirmation bias) not purposely.

Odd, the render got uploaded. I updated with the real picture.

Yeah, somehow I uploaded the render version. The real thing looks about as good as the render. Hope to be back in Texas late February and make the trip down to see it.

Confusion maker: the photo currently posted is the real deal, but for 34 minutes they accidentally had the render posted instead.

10:39 post created with wrong pic
10:51 second post with Twitter link to intended source image
10:54 @Carl Raymond points out post pic error
11:09 second post updated
11:13 initial post updated with correct pic
11:14 post explaining inital posting error
12:04 post apologizing for inital error

6:55 this post originally published
6:56 math error corrected
6:57 addendum added: the coversation/ PM system is handy for situations like this. You can alert the poster and state your issue with the post, giving them a chance to update without a chain of posts that lose context after the edit. Also, clearly annotating edits helps too.
6:59 correcting the time of the previous edit.
X:xx llamas sacked
6:51 subtract 10 minutes from all my above times (not on purpose)

 

[Fact Checking]

What with added tariffs on imported IPace and tariffs on batteries and power trains exported to the Eu eventually, it's going to be Even more expensive than it is now !

I'd expect EU tariffs to be zero - the EU might waive them for a few months after Brexit.

The biggest cost of Brexit to auto manufacturers are not tariffs, but extra buerocracy and transport delays - i.e. UK carmakers and other manufacturers will lose "zero friction" trade with the EU, even under the best circumstances. The number of UK transport shipments is about ~250 million per year, only ~50 million of which go to non-EU countries. The infrastructure is very likely not ready for a 5-fold increase in workload. Think Model 3 ramp-up.

Nobody knows what precise financial impact that is going to have - but investment into UK manufacturing sector has already slowed.

With a "soft" Brexit (which looks like a non-starter in the UK parliament), most of these effects are delayed by 2 years, giving time to prepare.

 

[Fact Checking]

I see that the First Call numbers you have access to reflect 22 analysts' estimates being used for the average.

The FactSet Q4 delivery estimate that the media referenced as having been missed last week was based on forecasts from 9 analysts.

So there's only 4 major sources of financial data that institutional traders use - and Thomson Reuters First Call is certainly a major one.

FactSet is another, different network:

"The financial data industry is dominated by 4 large providers: Bloomberg, S&P (Capital IQ + SNL), FactSet and Thomson Reuters Eikon. All four try to offer a one-stop-shop platform that provides all types of financial data services (with a massive price tag, as you’ll see below)."

Bloomberg vs Capital IQ vs Factset vs Thomson Reuters Eikon​

So when we get analyst consensus summaries from @Remster32 from a (presumably) Thomson Reuters terminal or data subscription, they generally won't match the FactSet consensus.

(Perversely, most of this is hidden from 99.99% of the investing public - while it's obviously very relevant to the pricing of stocks.)

 

[cheshire cat]

I'd expect EU tariffs to be zero - the EU might waive them for a few months after Brexit.

The biggest cost of Brexit to auto manufacturers are not tariffs, but extra buerocracy and transport delays - i.e. UK carmakers and other manufacturers will lose "zero friction" trade with the EU, even under the best circumstances. The number of UK transport shipments is about ~250 million per year, only ~50 million of which go to non-EU countries. The infrastructure is very likely not ready for a 5-fold increase in workload. Think Model 3 ramp-up.

Nobody knows what precise financial impact that is going to have - but investment into UK manufacturing sector has already slowed.

With a "soft" Brexit (which looks like a non-starter in the UK parliament), most of these effects are delayed by 2 years, giving time to prepare.

" calm down dear". It was a windup

 

[SPadival]

With all the disinformation out there, I checked and the vessel fits within the Panamax requirements.

The invasion begins..(pic evidence in tweet)

Somehow, we lost. on Twitter

 

[Johann Koeber]

MOD:
1. NO "MSG" posts.
2. See why we take the tack of Mr Musk and frown on acronyms? Do NOT use them willy nilly. A mark of laziness.
3. If you think you're newly sharing something from the internet - think again, and research this forum. There's a very high likelihood you're not...especially late in the day.

What does MSG stand for?

Edit: missing smiley added

 

[EVMeister]

What does MSG stand for?

Sorry to have to do this. LMGTFY

You probably knew that. But that was exactly what MSG meant in this context, there were some posts about it. Needless to say they don't belong here.

 

[Buckminster]

So there's only 4 major sources of financial data that institutional traders use - and Thomson Reuters First Call is certainly a major one.

FactSet is another, different network:

"The financial data industry is dominated by 4 large providers: Bloomberg, S&P (Capital IQ + SNL), FactSet and Thomson Reuters Eikon. All four try to offer a one-stop-shop platform that provides all types of financial data services (with a massive price tag, as you’ll see below)."

Bloomberg vs Capital IQ vs Factset vs Thomson Reuters Eikon​

So when we get analyst consensus summaries from @Remster32 from a (presumably) Thomson Reuters terminal or data subscription, they generally won't match the FactSet consensus.

(Perversely, most of this is hidden from 99.99% of the investing public - while it's obviously very relevant to the pricing of stocks.)

Begs the question, how are there not more leaks of this data?