Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

I prefer this one thread to the two we had last year.

Let’s all try not to get too far off topic here. But I can scroll through off topic stuff pretty fast.

This is the most sensible approach. We're all human and can't help but indulge our impulses from time to time, but if we all just cut back a bit on the noise it would make a big difference but still keep the texture of the thread intact. Everyone breaks the rules, present company included, but I do make an effort to limit my OT contributions.

 

[anthonyj]

Anyone see that 80k share dump

 

[Cherry Wine]

Just so I'm clear.....
If someone thinks Tesla's going to do really poorly.... It's "FUD"...to be mocked...
And if someone thinks Tesla's going to do really well, it's an SEC violation??

I'm beginning to think there are a few here just plain ole' bat-$hit crazy, ya know...
I don't know, man... Kinda coo-coo for Coco-Puffs..... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The problem comes when someone speaks out of both sides of their mouth. You can't logically set low price targets for a stock that are in direct contradiction to your financial estimates for the same company. Such activities are blatant attempts at manipulation that deserve every bit of scorn that they receive here and elsewhere.

 

[Joe F]

Anyone see that 80k share dump

Yep, triggered at the high of the day.

 

[Tslynk67]

Boy, someone sure didn't like the look of that breakout...

 

[Bet TSLA]

Anyone see that 80k share dump

Big spike up, then down. I closed a short put position just before that, at ~$345.65. It shot up over $1 immediately after. Then down. Weird.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I agree there could be an opportunity if Q4 appears to miss consensus. I'll be more focused on cashflow than GAP earnings. As an earnings miss could just mean that Tesla has decided to ramp R&D again (which I think they should do)

Though my hypothesis is that we might see another attractive entry point in Q1 on the delivery report. I expect difficulty in Tesla matching or exceeding Q4 deliveries in Q1 as they have exhausted most pent up demand in the US and will be in the process of ramping up sales in RHD countries and China while navigating much more challenging logistics and regularity hurdles. This could embolden one more bear raid under $300.

Agreed. I think January will be dismal as many cars will be in the pipeline to Europe. Even February will be off and March will start to gravitate back to normal. Overall I wouldn’t be surprised if 1st quarter is negative. But once the pipeline of cars overseas is full and spring sales tick up in North America things should swing the other way quite drastically.

JMHO.

 

[Pezpunk]

Just so I'm clear.....
If someone thinks Tesla's going to do really poorly.... It's "FUD"...to be mocked...
And if someone thinks Tesla's going to do really well, it's an SEC violation??

I'm beginning to think there are a few here just plain ole' bat-$hit crazy, ya know...
I don't know, man... Kinda coo-coo for Coco-Puffs..... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

i'm not sure if you actually need this explained to you, or if you are just a short itching to take potshots at real investors whenever you can .. but let's give you the benefit of the doubt for a second. we are accusing firms of betting against Tesla, then deliberately moving the expectation bar upwards beyond what even the bulls think is realistically possible, so that no matter what results Tesla announces, the short-selling firm can put a pundit on TV to declare the numbers a disappointing "miss" and watch the stock tank.

this is the exact thing that happened with the Q4 delivery numbers. Before they were released, the bulls here on this forum were registering their best estimates mostly between 52k and 62k Model 3s delivered, with most of us seeming to agree that anything over 60k would be a good result. Tesla ended up delivering 63k, but it was declared a significant miss. As far as I could tell, the only people "expecting" more than that were groups who were financially invested in Tesla's failure, implying that these expectations were disingenuous at best.

 

[sdtslafan]

totally my bad. I wanted to sell 80 shares but the zero on this keyboard kinda sticks.

 

[SpaceCash]

I think someone(s) is cornering the stock

 

[Unpilot]

I think someone(s) is cornering the stock

AND it looks bullish AF!

 

[Thumper]

In the end, I like one big thread if we can just exercise a little self discipline. I view TMC like going to a sports bar. You cheer for your team, but you also get to know the "regulars". Knowing them helps you know who to take seriously and who is a blowhard. It's what makes TMC collegial instead of a cold financial stats-only site. Works for me.

 

[Reciprocity]

You can always tag @bonnie here. She does read these forums. She is also fairly responsive on Twitter. Especially if she recognizes you from TMC.

hrmm...

Nothing gets passed Bonnie.

Bonnie Norman on Twitter

 

[PhaseWhite]

Great observation regarding Canaccord and Needham. A few days ago Needham again suggested to sell TSLA. Seems to me they want to engineer a "miss", to make Tesla's great quarter sound bad.

Needham's Rajvindra Gill has been so wrong on TSLA. Choice quotes from his downgrade of TSLA in July 2018:

"...prompted Gill to lower Needham's 2019 revenue and EPS estimates from $26.6 billion and $1.80 to $26.3 billion and 80 cents"

"A projected $6 billion in free cash flow burn through 2020 results in an unsustainable capital structure."

So he was projecting TSLA FY 2019 Earnings at 80 cents per share and negative cash flow through 2020.

Source: Needham Downgrades Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Says Model 3 Refunds Are Outpacing Deposits-

 

[Fact Checking]

New Boy, someone sure didn't like the look of that breakout...

Yes - I believe someone is protecting the $350 price barrier: there's a large number of $350 CALL options sitting there:

 PUT $300:  2,267 ##                  ,   CALL $300:    890 #            
 PUT $302:    567 #                   ,   CALL $302:    139              
 PUT $305:  3,559 ####                ,   CALL $305:    713 #            
 PUT $307:    450                     ,   CALL $307:    135              
 PUT $310:  1,976 ##                  ,   CALL $310:    519 #            
 PUT $312:    570 #                   ,   CALL $312:    335              
 PUT $315:  1,537 ##                  ,   CALL $315:    635 #            
 PUT $317:    602 #                   ,   CALL $317:    303              
 PUT $320:  3,316 ###                 ,   CALL $320:  1,142 #            
 PUT $322:  1,300 #                   ,   CALL $322:    420              
 PUT $325:  1,796 ##                  ,   CALL $325:  1,752 ##          
 PUT $327:  1,446 #                   ,   CALL $327:    598 #            
 PUT $330:  6,097 ######              ,   CALL $330:  2,876 ###          
 PUT $332:    892 #                   ,   CALL $332:    813 #            
 PUT $335:  1,589 ##                  ,   CALL $335:  2,301 ##          
 PUT $337:    518 #                   ,   CALL $337:  1,549 ##          
 PUT $340:  1,709 ##                  ,   CALL $340:  3,258 ###          
 PUT $342:    370                     ,   CALL $342:  1,047 #            
 PUT $345:    843 #                   ,   CALL $345:  1,621 ##          
 PUT $347:    238                     ,   CALL $347:    847 #            
 PUT $350:    537 #                   ,   CALL $350:  4,143 ####        
 PUT $352:     78                     ,   CALL $352:    982 #            
 PUT $355:    185                     ,   CALL $355:  1,868 ##          
 PUT $357:     90                     ,   CALL $357:    829 #            
 PUT $360:     97                     ,   CALL $360:  1,886 ##          
 PUT $362:     57                     ,   CALL $362:    349              
 PUT $365:     96                     ,   CALL $365:    831 #            
 PUT $367:     18                     ,   CALL $367:    386              
 PUT $370:    132                     ,   CALL $370:  1,025 #            
 PUT $372:      4                     ,   CALL $372:    732 #            
 PUT $375:     22                     ,   CALL $375:    700 #            
 PUT $377:      3                     ,   CALL $377:    222              
 PUT $380:      7                     ,   CALL $380:  1,039 #            
 PUT $382:      0                     ,   CALL $382:     75              
 PUT $385:     15                     ,   CALL $385:    262

There's 700,000 shares-equivalent call options between $350 and $360. If a market maker has written those call options but doesn't have 700,000 TSLA shares in inventory to cover the delta risk, then they might have found it cheaper to sell 100-200k TSLA shares short at around $247 to protect the closing price (which determines call option payouts).

They might also have excess TSLA inventory and are now trimming that and protecting $350 at the same time.

Pure speculation.

We'll know whether that big sale which reduced the price by about $4 within a couple of ticks was a short seller or a stock owner in 1-2 months when the FINRA short seller transaction data comes out. (By that time the information will have lost much of its value - which is the point of those excessive delays in transaction level data disclosures ...)

In 1 hour 20 minutes we'll also know whether there's a bigger fish around who wants a closing price beyond $350:

 

[Nocturnal]

I think someone(s) is cornering the stock

How would that work? Asking for a friend, I totally understand all of this crap.

 

[Unpilot]

Boy, someone sure didn't like the look of that breakout...

View attachment 368114

Cute really...lots of cash to throw away...yet she keeps ticking up.

 

[KarenRei]

Though my hypothesis is that we might see another attractive entry point in Q1 on the delivery report. I expect difficulty in Tesla matching or exceeding Q4 deliveries in Q1 as they have exhausted most pent up demand in the US and will be in the process of ramping up sales in RHD countries and China while navigating much more challenging logistics and regularity hurdles. This could embolden one more bear raid under $300.

Yeah, inventory in delivery is going to suck in Q1, but they're going to rock it on ASP (and thus margins) vs. Q4. M3 margins should be at least 25% then.

Volume is probably going to be great, too.

 

[M3Rider]

Agreed. I think January will be dismal as many cars will be in the pipeline to Europe. Even February will be off and March will start to gravitate back to normal. Overall I wouldn’t be surprised if 1st quarter is negative. But once the pipeline of cars overseas is full and spring sales tick up in North America things should swing the other way quite drastically.

JMHO.

Do you think if May's Q1 ER shows that ~20K+ cars are in transit to customers that would be a valid cause for a selloff?
Or if April's P&D shows that production exceeds the deliveries by the same number, that's a cause for analysts' alarm given that everybody knows based on their own reporting that those cars are going to China & Europe? Wouldn't those analysts look stupid if they can't tie these 2 facts together?

 

[Fact Checking]

Though my hypothesis is that we might see another attractive entry point in Q1 on the delivery report. I expect difficulty in Tesla matching or exceeding Q4 deliveries in Q1 as they have exhausted most pent up demand in the US and will be in the process of ramping up sales in RHD countries and China while navigating much more challenging logistics and regularity hurdles. This could embolden one more bear raid under $300.

Yeah, inventory in delivery is going to suck in Q1

No, that's not necessarily the case:

• If Tesla makes Model 3's for the EU and Chinese market in January and early February, they have time to ship them to Europe and China and deliver them.
• If mid-February Tesla switches over to U.S. production, they can do the regular end of quarter U.S. push with west coast deliveries timed last.
• In such a scenario they'd have similarly low inventory in Q1'19 as they had in Q3'18. (They probably won't have the end of year super low levels of inventory, because there probably won't be holidays and a factory shutdown/slowdown end of March.)
  
• They can again start making European and Chinese Model 3's at the beginning of April.

If Q1'19 U.S./Canadian demand is at least 50%-60% of Q4 demand they can do this and still grow both production and deliveries. With the price cuts there's no reason this shouldn't be possible.