I still see tons of stories talking about Tesla's "demand cliff" in 2019. That makes zero sense to me. Opening up the European market and possibly China should dwarf any sort of demand slump in the US, even if US demand does slump.
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No, that's not necessarily the case:
If Q1 U.S./Canadian demand is at least 50%-60% of Q4 demand they can do this and still grow both production and deliveries. With the price cuts there's no reason this shouldn't be possible.
- If Tesla makes Model 3's for the EU and Chinese market in January and early February, they have time to ship them to Europe and China and deliver them.
- If mid-February Tesla switches over to U.S. production, they can do the regular end of quarter U.S. push with west coast deliveries timed last.
- In such a scenario they'd have similarly low inventory in Q1'19 as they had in Q3'18.
- They can again start making European and Chinese Model 3's at the beginning of April.
Anyone see that 80k share dump
Yep, triggered at the high of the day.
Yes - I believe someone is protecting the $350 price barrier: there's a large number of $350 CALL options sitting there:
Code:PUT $300: 2,267 ## , CALL $300: 890 # PUT $302: 567 # , CALL $302: 139 PUT $305: 3,559 #### , CALL $305: 713 # PUT $307: 450 , CALL $307: 135 PUT $310: 1,976 ## , CALL $310: 519 # PUT $312: 570 # , CALL $312: 335 PUT $315: 1,537 ## , CALL $315: 635 # PUT $317: 602 # , CALL $317: 303 PUT $320: 3,316 ### , CALL $320: 1,142 # PUT $322: 1,300 # , CALL $322: 420 PUT $325: 1,796 ## , CALL $325: 1,752 ## PUT $327: 1,446 # , CALL $327: 598 # PUT $330: 6,097 ###### , CALL $330: 2,876 ### PUT $332: 892 # , CALL $332: 813 # PUT $335: 1,589 ## , CALL $335: 2,301 ## PUT $337: 518 # , CALL $337: 1,549 ## PUT $340: 1,709 ## , CALL $340: 3,258 ### PUT $342: 370 , CALL $342: 1,047 # PUT $345: 843 # , CALL $345: 1,621 ## PUT $347: 238 , CALL $347: 847 # PUT $350: 537 # , CALL $350: 4,143 #### PUT $352: 78 , CALL $352: 982 # PUT $355: 185 , CALL $355: 1,868 ## PUT $357: 90 , CALL $357: 829 # PUT $360: 97 , CALL $360: 1,886 ## PUT $362: 57 , CALL $362: 349 PUT $365: 96 , CALL $365: 831 # PUT $367: 18 , CALL $367: 386 PUT $370: 132 , CALL $370: 1,025 # PUT $372: 4 , CALL $372: 732 # PUT $375: 22 , CALL $375: 700 # PUT $377: 3 , CALL $377: 222 PUT $380: 7 , CALL $380: 1,039 # PUT $382: 0 , CALL $382: 75 PUT $385: 15 , CALL $385: 262
There's 700,000 shares-equivalent call options between $350 and $360. If a market maker has written those call options but doesn't have 700,000 TSLA shares in inventory to cover the delta risk, then they might have found it cheaper to sell 100-200k TSLA shares short at around $247 to protect the closing price (which determines call option payouts).
They might also have excess TSLA inventory and are now trimming that and protecting $350 at the same time.
Pure speculation.
We'll know whether that big sale which reduced the price by about $4 within a couple of ticks was a short seller or a stock owner in 1-2 months when the FINRA short seller transaction data comes out. (By that time the information will have lost much of its value - which is the point of those excessive delays in transaction level data disclosures ...)
In ~20 minutes we'll also know whether there's a bigger fish around who wants a closing price beyond $350:
No, that's not necessarily the case:
If Q1'19 U.S./Canadian demand is at least 50%-60% of Q4 demand they can do this and still grow both production and deliveries. With the price cuts there's no reason this shouldn't be possible.
- If Tesla makes Model 3's for the EU and Chinese market in January and early February, they have time to ship them to Europe and China and deliver them.
- If mid-February Tesla switches over to U.S. production, they can do the regular end of quarter U.S. push with west coast deliveries timed last.
- In such a scenario they'd have similarly low inventory in Q1'19 as they had in Q3'18.
- They can again start making European and Chinese Model 3's at the beginning of April.
OT AF
350 puts + 75k share dump caused that
Do you think if May's Q1 ER shows that ~20K+ cars are in transit to customers that would be a valid cause for a selloff?
Or if April's P&D shows that production exceeds the deliveries by the same number, that's a cause for analysts' alarm given that everybody knows based on their own reporting that those cars are going to China & Europe? Wouldn't those analysts look stupid if they can't tie these 2 facts together?
I just think that if there are 20K cars in transit it will get spun.
Possible. Although if so then expect a huge freakout about the InsideEVs Jan/Feb deliveries estimate for the US "The tax credit went away and NOBODY WANTS A TESLA ANY MORE!!!"
Also, uneven shipping creates localized inventory / deliveries problem. Hope they seriously improve their infrastructure for handling such huge "waves".
1. The progress of General AI self-driving - if this comes out as planned, even if it's not perfect yet, the impact to the market cap should be significant. Quarterly sales going up or down is nothing compared to this factor. The market cap should triple when this comes out.
TSLA ranked with the 12th most active options trading today according to Barchart. Put/call ratio stands at 1.29, with 56.4% put options to 43.6% call options as of 9:34 AM PST.
Possibly and a momentum killer.$350 strike puts open interest is still the same 517 contracts as it was a couple of hours ago.
Do you mean that someone with $350+ put contracts did the 75k share dump, to make sure the PUT contracts expire in the money?
We have had a nice six day run. However the run up has been on below average and declining volume. Often a sign that a pullback is near.Why, is that green I see on my screen?
If we close green that'll be six days in a row. Such a long streak only happens rarely, less than once per year on average. Jun. 2018, Mar. 2016, Apr. 2015, June 2013, etc.
This ratio has flipped today -- .88 put/call ratio. Also, there was significant volume on Jan 2020 $310 puts today. I'm assuming this is a hedge against shares? If so, would be a bullish trade.
OT AF
Dad gum, she has nice teeth.
Yes - I believe someone is protecting the $350 price barrier: there's a large number of $350 CALL options sitting there:
Code:PUT $300: 2,267 ## , CALL $300: 890 # PUT $302: 567 # , CALL $302: 139 PUT $305: 3,559 #### , CALL $305: 713 # PUT $307: 450 , CALL $307: 135 PUT $310: 1,976 ## , CALL $310: 519 # PUT $312: 570 # , CALL $312: 335 PUT $315: 1,537 ## , CALL $315: 635 # PUT $317: 602 # , CALL $317: 303 PUT $320: 3,316 ### , CALL $320: 1,142 # PUT $322: 1,300 # , CALL $322: 420 PUT $325: 1,796 ## , CALL $325: 1,752 ## PUT $327: 1,446 # , CALL $327: 598 # PUT $330: 6,097 ###### , CALL $330: 2,876 ### PUT $332: 892 # , CALL $332: 813 # PUT $335: 1,589 ## , CALL $335: 2,301 ## PUT $337: 518 # , CALL $337: 1,549 ## PUT $340: 1,709 ## , CALL $340: 3,258 ### PUT $342: 370 , CALL $342: 1,047 # PUT $345: 843 # , CALL $345: 1,621 ## PUT $347: 238 , CALL $347: 847 # PUT $350: 537 # , CALL $350: 4,143 #### PUT $352: 78 , CALL $352: 982 # PUT $355: 185 , CALL $355: 1,868 ## PUT $357: 90 , CALL $357: 829 # PUT $360: 97 , CALL $360: 1,886 ## PUT $362: 57 , CALL $362: 349 PUT $365: 96 , CALL $365: 831 # PUT $367: 18 , CALL $367: 386 PUT $370: 132 , CALL $370: 1,025 # PUT $372: 4 , CALL $372: 732 # PUT $375: 22 , CALL $375: 700 # PUT $377: 3 , CALL $377: 222 PUT $380: 7 , CALL $380: 1,039 # PUT $382: 0 , CALL $382: 75 PUT $385: 15 , CALL $385: 262
There's 700,000 shares-equivalent call options between $350 and $360. If a market maker has written those call options but doesn't have 700,000 TSLA shares in inventory to cover the delta risk, then they might have found it cheaper to sell 100-200k TSLA shares short at around $247 to protect the closing price (which determines call option payouts).
They might also have excess TSLA inventory and are now trimming that and protecting $350 at the same time.
Pure speculation.
We'll know whether that big sale which reduced the price by about $4 within a couple of ticks was a short seller or a stock owner in 1-2 months when the FINRA short seller transaction data comes out. (By that time the information will have lost much of its value - which is the point of those excessive delays in transaction level data disclosures ...)
In 1 hour 20 minutes we'll also know whether there's a bigger fish around who wants a closing price beyond $350: