Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Until we're a lot closer to full self driving being reality it's just an engineering/computing exercise, so why take on the expense?

Good argument, I guess. The counter-argument is that until you have someone who knows what good driving looks like (hint: it doesn't look like the average car on the Interstate), you're not going to know what problems you need to solve. When you finally get the people in to work out how to make the car drive *well*, you may discover you have to totally redo your vision stack, because a really good driver is looking for something you weren't looking for.

There are a lot of situations where the correct path to follow is *not obvious* to an average driver. Particularly when it's a question of whether to exit the pavement and go onto the shoulder, whether to go into the opposite lane, whether to exit the shoulder onto dirt, etc. This is HARD and most people get it wrong most of the time. Even me.

In some cases, it's literally "make a K turn and go to a totally different route".

If they have a few driving experts -- say three, with different backgrounds -- and they show each tough situation to them and go "OK, what should the car do here?", and go with the consensus (and also ask them what cues they're looking at, particularly if they disagree) -- then they'll be doing a good job at training.

Fortunately for us as investors, Tesla seems to have the hardware on the right track.

That I agree on. Also, LIDAR is a total dead end.

From an investing point of view this is probably another example of "you don't have to run faster than the bear". If everyone fails, but Tesla is the best in the bunch, they probably still make a mint.

If Tesla has to restart their NN path choice training mostly from scratch, but everyone else doesn't even have the right hardware, Tesla definitely makes a mint.

 

[jerry33]

Well, I'm not entirely sure that's true. In addition to being aware of a situation, you also have to have the skill/expertise to then deal with it.

Example: there are lot of drivers aware they are in a skid, but don't have the expertise to counteract it.

This is exactly where AI driving excels. People who don't regularly practice what happens in various emergency situations are ill equipped to deal with them when they happen. Now AI can't do everything in its current state, barring miracles from this afternoon's presentation, but it can react to skids and similar occurrences in the correct manner. The next step is for it to be able to handle rain, then snow and ice.

 

[brian45011]

I think the SP movement today is more due to the downgrade and lowering of price target by an analyst at Evercore, whatever that is.

Evercore was Tesla's Investment Bank adviser in the SolarCity acquisition (SCTY used Lazard).

 

[Nocturnal]

Another video taken of the clip has emerged. Now I'm not sure again.

Why the heck would this video look so different than the last?

This is exactly where AI driving excels. People who don't regularly practice what happens in various emergency situations are ill equipped to deal with them when they happen. Now AI can't do everything in its current state, barring miracles from this afternoon's presentation, but it can react to skids and similar occurrences in the correct manner. The next step is for it to be able to handle rain, then snow and ice.

I think the benefit of AI is in preventing emergencies to begin with. Most accidents are caused by driver's being drunk, tired, distracted, driving aggressively etc. If we resolve that then true emergencies will be super rare.

Just eliminating all driving under the influence (drugs and alcohol) would halve the amount of major accidents.

 

[jerry33]

As a manager spending a few decades in “service”, I will say that the most efficient way to deliver poor service is to take it off the profit line.

I have an issue with that. I've seen several really good service people at dealers let go because they only wrote up what the customer needed without any extras.

 

[kengchang]

Pretty strange how fast the smoke got pushed out (using youtube play by frame tool)

 

[mongo]

There is now a topical thread for the China video
Tesla Fire in Shanghai
I suggest a change of venue as this thread will soon be cluttered with interesting FSD discussions

 

[SOULPEDL]

Your basic point as applied to FSD is what Karpathy addressed in a video linked a bit ago. According to him, the programmers are the data labelers. Yeah, in some pedantic sense you are right, but in a practical sense humans are still doing the programming. If you alter the labeling (code) then the results of the neural net training (compiler) are different.


umm... topicality? erm... Tesla's quest for FSD and their process for doing it which appears to be different (more reliant on neural nets than others) which will be in the forefront in about 90 minutes.

This expert driver topic and whether Tesla can find an expert driver seems both off topic and nit picky.

 

[bdy0627]

Even if the fire is completely real, it shouldn't make a difference for the stock. I don't get that this would be the catalyst for a 3%+ drop. Maybe the analyst downgrade, but we have had several recent analyst downgrades that barely moved the stock. This drop feels contrived to me. Were we too close to the upper downtrend line, meaning it was too risky to let natural forces play out today with the event going on?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As frustrated as I am about everything going on with Tesla stock......I sure hope some of you that have free powder are loading up. My next chance to up my stake isn't for another month so it's not an option for me (and I won't do margin with this stock because well, it's pretty obvious why lol)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Even if the fire is completely real, it shouldn't make a difference for the stock. I don't get that this would be the catalyst for a 3%+ drop. Maybe the analyst downgrade, but we have had several recent analyst downgrades that barely moved the stock. This drop feels contrived to me. Were we too close to the upper downtrend line, meaning it was too risky to let natural forces play out today with the event going on?

Wall St taking any excuse they can to drive down the stock as much as possible to limit the overall net gain from the day due to the FSD event.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Oh sure, I'm not saying it is legit. Only that the white screen part has additional features that make it seem like genuine camera feed (for that section). The washout itself seems strange since the entire image brightness increasing instead of one section getting brighter and everything else getting dark. I think one could adjust the camera settings to achieve the same effect (aperture or sensitivity).

That Tesla CCTV footage is soooo fishy. Here's a similar whiteout from an explosion, but the whiteout comes as a gradient rather than a fade to white:

Exactly. Video cameras do not typically meter this way. Very strange.

 

[Pras]

Even if the fire is completely real, it shouldn't make a difference for the stock. I don't get that this would be the catalyst for a 3%+ drop. Maybe the analyst downgrade, but we have had several recent analyst downgrades that barely moved the stock. This drop feels contrived to me. Were we too close to the upper downtrend line, meaning it was too risky to let natural forces play out today with the event going on?

It seems shorts haven’t covered or used opportunity to cover recently, and in general seem very confident. Which means more chance of them getting caught flat footed, if there is a any upside catalyst. Let’s see.

 

[viridi]

It becomes clearer-and-clearer each day that CNBC has a very negative agenda when it comes to Tesla. They have a negative story almost every hour of every day. They just had Phil LeBeau and Charley Grant on (not sure why this guy gets so much airtime - yes, he is negative, but he does not seem like the sharpest tool in the shed) spinning the same FUD the channel has been spinning all day (and much repeated from prior days). Lutz this a.m. seemed like a dunce as always, but he got his 60 seconds to spew on Tesla. I would have to do an analysis, but I am pretty sure there is not another approx. $50 billion market cap co. that gets the constant coverage that Tesla gets. It would not be surpassing in the least to uncover that big auto/big oil were a big part of why CNBC is so negative (advertising dollars speak quite loudly). It will never happen, but if their mission is to truly protect investors, this issue is where the SEC should be spending time investigating.

 

[mblakele]

This morning's Espresso briefing by The Economist mentioned Tesla and today's event. No link because I get it through email. They're repeating the FUD about demand, SEC, and board problems, and discounting the autonomy event as a distraction. But I thought the chart was significant. I believe this is the first time The Economist has acknowledged volume production of the Model 3, instead of pretending that it isn't happening.

Recharged? Tesla

The electric-car maker hopes to put the brakes on its sliding stock price and bad press coverage today. Amid faltering demand for its vehicles, a board shakeup and a dispute with America’s Securities and Exchange Commission over the tweets of Elon Musk, the company’s feisty boss, Tesla will show off its latest technological advances. Expect a fanfare for its “full self-driving” system. Whether this will live up to its name remains unclear, however. Experts already dispute the naming and marketing of Tesla’s existing autonomous-vehicle technology, claiming its “autopilot” feature requires more driver supervision than the company promises. When asked for further details on the event, Mr Musk tweeted it would “free investors from the tyranny of having to drive their own car”. At the very least it might provide a momentary break from awkward headlines—until Wednesday, that is, when the company will probably report a first-quarter loss.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The original comment was about Tesla encouraging/assisting independent small businessmen/sole proprietorships to open/convert repair facilities specializing in EV repairs and maintenance, capable of working on all brands. You seem to have conflated it with Manufacturer-owned operations.

They already do that on a limited basis.
Body Shop Support
I’m fortunate enough to have one only a few miles away. They repaired a minor fender dent, but in the process broke one of the clips holding on the repeater camera. They got a new one from a Tesla in a couple of days.

 

[mblakele]

This article may shed some light on the ability of millennials to afford the Model 3.

American millennials think they will be rich
The data suggest they probably won’t be

 

[powertoold]

YouTube Autonomy day stream is live with Tesla ads

 

[nvsblman]

A heads-up to cheer you up:

If any company competently can determine what's what with smoke patterns, spread, timing and so forth, it would be a company that has unparalleled expertise in the forensics of rocket RUDs. Does anyone know of any such?

Unfortunately, they might be a little busy right now...

 

[Nocturnal]

So, FSD day might bring a small bump, and even though we expect a poor earnings report and it should be baked into SP for the most part, I guess another drop after the 24th.

Seems unlikely anything earth shattering will happen with the FSD event. My best hope is to convince analysts that Tesla is at parity or not so far off from Waymo.