Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cricketman]

I've just ordered a Model Y with FSD for my wife. She needed a bit of convincing but we have just got back from a 2,000 km road trip and she loves my P3D now.

Wasn't going to bother with FSD but the presentation convinced me

By the way, my P3D has been attracting a lot of attention here in Spain, around 10 family and friends have had a drive in it and agree that it is the future of cars, they are amazed. Unfortunately none of them say they can justify buying it for the price. I think that is what worries me. Exactly how big in the potential market of people who can pay EUR49k plus for a car in Europe. In places like California and Norway it is a no-brainer

 

[Artful Dodger]

@neroden why did you disagree with this? They actually did say that.



Motor Trend drove 359 miles and said that they had 11% left.

If you calculate that out they would have been able to drive ~403 miles.

Yes you're right. Note also by M/T's numbers, they departed with 94% SoC and used 231 Wh/mi at about 60 mph.

All very reasonable, and very reproducible. F/it. I'm declairing it Neroden-approved. So there!

 

[Artful Dodger]

The penalties are in the billions, and they only get worse in later years. And their EVs aren’t going to get any better with respect to Tesla at this rate.

Yeah, you're right. But Tesla has opened its patents. They've bent over backwards on offering use of the Supercharger Network, and now adopting CCS2 overnight in the EU.

All the manufacturers have to do is ask, Tesla will gladly help them get started building compelling EVs and powerful efficient and long lasting batteries. The only thing holding them back is pride.

Separating them from a few billion Euros should cure them of that. If they want to survive that is. Ironic if FCA is the 1st to benefit from this, wot? Worst to First? I like the irony.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

ED: Well, premarket clearly isn't as optimistic as me about today. Down 0,11%, really? Maybe people really want to wait for the ER before deciding.

Or perhaps premarket is just off its rocker like it sometimes is.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Interesting, per M/T the motor layout on the S/X refresh is actually the opposite of Model 3. AC induction in the back, PM in the front.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Maybe OT, but I have carried out research on my own heart rate versus a month and found that teslas stock price does not affect it directly.

 

[Tslynk67]

Due to yesterday's autonomy day and today's refresh, I expect the Q1 numbers to absolutely suck. They wouldn't turn over these cards unless they really needed to. However, I'm more optimistic about Tesla's future than ever.

I'm not so sure - why release a load of positive information for it only to be drowned-out a day later with bad earnings?

Would be better to do it other other way around to try and change the discussion after.

 

[shlokavica22]

OT

Maybe OT, but I have carried out research on my own heart rate versus a month and found that teslas stock price does not affect it directly.
View attachment 400087

OK, I will do you the favor- what are the games you sell on Steam?

Seriously though, any stock holder that intents to keep the stock for at least couple of years has just need to relax and stop following so closely TSLA related news. The shorts pay for the news and dominate the news. A lot is at stake here and they fight for their life.

 

[Tslynk67]

Maybe OT, but I have carried out research on my own heart rate versus a month and found that teslas stock price does not affect it directly.
View attachment 400087

What about deep-sleep and HRV?

 

[Causalien]

It's so hard to get the timing right as option contract buyers: even if they are completely right about everything a single day (or even hour) of timing noise can have a large negative effect.

As a consolation, if today's Q1 results are as awful as even bulls are expecting then you'll be right to have deleveraged ...

It is funny how shorts are predicting around ~ -300 mil while bulls here are predicting ~-600mil to -900 mil
And shorts had celebratory drinks before the ER...

 

[Fact Checking]

Interesting, per M/T the motor layout on the S/X refresh is actually the opposite of Model 3. AC induction in the back, PM in the front.

Yes, this is probably for two reasons:

• RWD motor is the stronger one - Model 3 is smaller, so the stronger Model 3 motor can be used as the "weaker" S/X FWD motor.
• PM motor is harder to idle without drag, but the FWD motor is rarely idled: it's either pulling the car or regenerating. This is probably why the new S has so much efficiency and range: in highway driving the rear induction motor is fully idled, while the higher efficiency and higher gear ratio forward PM motor is used for highly efficient highway speed coasting.

Another takeaway: Tesla planned this S/X refresh all the way back in 2016 when they decided on the Model 3 motor layout, design and sizing. Amazing foresight.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I am such an idiot. Deleveraged yesterday in advance of earnings. Yesterday morning, during that low. And now they do the refresh unveil before earnings? UGH. Market is going to jump today. This is an event I really wanted to be in for!

Being right about the motor changes and the lack of battery pack changes are great, but they don't make up for being unleveraged when the changes get unveiled....

Will it? Won't this be spun as a desperate move on the part of Tesla to try to salvage non-existent demand? Sorry if I am being overly skeptical but I have been disappointed by the market's reaction in the past to have much hope for today. Maybe a $5 jump today I think and then give it all back after earnings. I have never hoped to be wrong so much in my life!

Dan

 

[PANN]

I'm not so sure - why release a load of positive information for it only to be drowned-out a day later with bad earnings?

Would be better to do it other other way around to try and change the discussion after.

I agree. Tesla has been consistent recently for early announcement of good results and late for the bad, as witnessed most recently the Q1 P&D report. Not an advice.

 

[Causalien]

I agree. Tesla has been consistent recently for early announcement of good results and late for the bad, as witnessed most recently the Q1 P&D report. Not an advice.

Ya. So much stuff is screaming it is the perfect contrarian play. Prominent shorts congratulating themselves with a celebratory drink. Stock didn't run up before earnings. EVERYONE expect a shitty Q1. Early ER announcement. Local peak of shares shorted. TSLA lagging behind the overall macro rally. Historic support level. Timing wise from history the full length of a tsla stock price cycle should have run its course.

But there'd been so much disappointment lately. Probably because Elon is actively trying to pump the stock. When the market knows your intention it will work against you.

In any case. Good luck to all tomorrow.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Nice spec pump - yet I think it's a missed opportunity not to bundle it with the new interior and a slight exterior refresh.

"The all new Model S/X" IMO would have had way more sales punch than "a bit better in every regard / from SF to LA in one charge".

 

[schonelucht]

Another takeaway: Tesla planned this S/X refresh all the way back in 2016 when they decided on the Model 3 motor layout, design and sizing. Amazing foresight.

Plans that run multiple years ahead are absolutely standard in this industry. I fail to see what is amazing about this.

This is a nice example of one of my bigger issues with this community. Whatever Tesla does, for some it is always somehow amazing. Take three year of planning ahead : amazing. Scrap something and do an emergency development : amazing too. It's the perfect mirror from the TSLAQ community where whatever Tesla does, it is certain to be worse than anyone else.

 

[Tslynk67]

most circuits are not conscious, I don't think, because they don't integrate their input into the kind of hierarchy of objects that conscious beings biological or mechanical, not existent, do.

I read, many years back, speculation that consciousness was a quantum function brought about by a Bose-Einstein condensate condition occurring in a brain with a critical mass of size/activity.

 

[jeewee3000]

Plans that run multiple years ahead are absolutely standard in this industry. I fail to see what is amazing about this.

This is a nice example of one of my bigger issues with this community. Whatever Tesla does, for some it is always somehow amazing. Take three year of planning ahead : amazing. Scrap something and do an emergency development : amazing too. It's the perfect mirror from the TSLAQ community where whatever Tesla does, it is certain to be worse than anyone else.

Good point. (insert discussion on "echo chamber" that we had dozens of times)

 

[KarenRei]

It is funny how shorts are predicting around ~ -300 mil while bulls here are predicting ~-600mil to -900 mil
And shorts had celebratory drinks before the ER...

I'm more like "-400 to -500m, plus wildcard revenue", where said wildcard revenue could be between nothing and hundreds of millions of dollars. I don't by the "apocalyptic" figures because I don't buy the margin assumptions needed to create them.

I honestly expect a rally if it hits the -$150M target, or even close to it (e.g. -$250M would probably be a positive, eliminating the "doooom!" fear). And it's certainly possible - there's so many wildcard possibilities this quarter. But I fear it's not going to hit close to that. That's such a high bar.

 

[KarenRei]

I read, many years back, speculation that consciousness was a quantum function brought about by a Bose-Einstein condensate condition occurring in a brain with a critical mass of size/activity.

Bose-Einstein condensates require exceedingly cold temperatures, only barely above absolute zero.