Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bonaire]

Any insights in what the next support could be? Not seeing a clear one below $217...

Bottom of the multi-year Head and Shoulders is roughly 185

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So, just to confirm, the narrative here is that Tesla killed someone else with autopilot and now they are going bankrupt twice as fast because Elon said so in his email? Am I correct?

Yup, that's about it. lol

Dan

 

[bonaire]

To be honest, they should be continually looking to save money and become as lean as possible, that's not the problem, the problem is the necessary "10 months" comment.

I'm just pissed because I don't have any spare cash to buy more right now...

Do the longs here have a standard in terms of Covered Call writing strategies? When a stock is in a downtrend, one wise move is to write out of the money longer-term calls to capture some of the costs of the downtrend. I do hope you guys have had this strategy for some time this year in order to soften the blow a bit. Those under 100 shares in their accounts cannot do much of this unless their brokerage has allowed it.

 

[CyberDutchie]

"Everyone" knows that it's going to be a roller coaster ride? Even the longs that have relentlessly mocked, shredded and ridiculed anyone asking legitimate questions around TSLA execution over the past 12 months in the investor forum? I have to kind of laugh at this post, sorry but I do.

I considered dipping in for 100 shares of TSLA during Oct/Nov price drops and did a little bit of research. Had legitimate questions around TSLA execution, # of reservations being converted into sales, cash burn rate, etc. People were completely flambeed for even suggesting that TSLA might need to do another cash raise. Laughed out of the room.

I was completely mocked and ridiculed by the longs here who were boasting at the time that they had more dry powder to buy at $320 and treated anyone who disagreed with their assessments as idiots.

Well the institutional investors are dumping their stock now so you are "right" that it's going to be a rocky couple of years. Hopefully the car I overpaid $60,000 for isn't going to be a worthless boat anchor when I go to swap it out in another few years or need parts for it, etc.

I hear you. I think after the profitable Q3 surprise and Elon promising cash flow positive from now on, many here (including me) got fooled into believing we would see $400 before end of the year. Then came the $420 private tweet and everyone was upset they would be forced out of the opportunity to see TSLA in the $1000-$1500.

The SEC problems and roller coaster that followed in December, in hind sight, had a few good selling opportunities, but the sentiment here was still buy on the dip.

Today, many, including myself, are deep underwater because of this. As someone who had faith in the company from the very beginning and supported the mission, it is easy to feel let down by Elon.

 

[ZachF]

Really looks like the stock wants to head to $200 by late June...

 

[Todd Burch]

UGLY!!!

I like how you show up daily for some brief scaremongering.

 

[nursebee]

Vomiting - Wikipedia

 

[Matias]

"Miss"?
Miss what? Who's opinion of where what should be will they "miss"?

Dan

“I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1," Musk said on the company's fourth-quarter earnings call. "Not by a lot, but I am optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and all quarters going forward."

 

[SO16]

I hear you. I think after the profitable Q3 surprise and Elon promising cash flow positive from now on, many here (including me) got fooled into believing we would see $400 before end of the year. Then came the $420 private tweet and everyone was upset they would be forced out of the opportunity to see TSLA in the $1000-$1500.

The SEC problems and roller coaster that followed in December, in hind sight, had a few good selling opportunities, but the sentiment here was still buy on the dip.

Today, many, including myself, are deep underwater because of this. As someone who had faith in the company from the very beginning and supported the mission, it is easy to feel let down by Elon.

Why are people still blaming Elon for their loss on the 420 tweet? The stock recovered by December. If people didn’t sell then, that’s on THEM!

 

[bdy0627]

You'd be surpised hpw quickly the perception of those around you can change when it comes to the almighty dollar. I'd be curious to know what kind of car buyers your coworkers are. I've found the most common group that thinks Tesla willl go bankrupt are the Ford/GM/pickup crowd. Sooner or later that group will have to acknowledge they're wrong. Either way, Tesla isn't relying on that group for sales demand.

My 2 friends who recently drove my model 3 and indicated they liked the car but have serious reservations about Tesla's future currently drive Audi Q5s. That's what I came from to the model S back in 2015.

 

[X Fan]

Just bought 200 @ 219.21.....we may not bounce for a while but this brings down my average cost.

 

[nursebee]

I like how you show up daily for some brief scaremongering.

If you are an investor in TSLA and not feeling the ugliness in the market than you have a different make up than I.

I disagree with the characterization of scare mongering

 

[bdy0627]

Any insights in what the next support could be? Not seeing a clear one below $217...

2x range is $208.x.

 

[Pras]

Why are people still blaming Elon for their loss on the 420 tweet? The stock recovered by December. If people didn’t sell then, that’s on THEM!

If that is the only thing people are blaming him for then I agree with you. But there are so many missteps here. He has let himself down again and again by saying something and quickly being proven wrong. Now all argue that in long run they turn out fine, so why does he even make short term calls?

As shareholders we have right to criticize mistakes by management....especially if it is avoidable.

 

[voip-ninja]

My 2 friends who recently drove my model 3 and indicated they liked the car but have serious reservations about Tesla's future currently drive Audi Q5s. That's what I came from to the model S back in 2015.

I have friends driving Japanese/German cars that are Tesla curious but have similar reservations about Tesla financial health and long term viability even though I've unabashedly tried to sell them on the car despite my own problems with my copy.

It's easy to stereotype everyone who has reservations about TSLA as a bunch of ignorant pickup driving hillbillies but that hasn't been my experience at all. The one "pickup driving hillbilly" that I do know thought my car was amazing and couldn't stop gushing about how he'd mortgage his left nut to get the pickup if it ever ships.

 

[SO16]

If that is the only thing people are blaming him for then I agree with you. But there are so many missteps here. He has let himself down again and again by saying something and quickly being proven wrong. Now all argue that in long run they turn out fine, so why does he even make short term calls?

As shareholders we have right to criticize mistakes by management....especially if it is avoidable.

All I’m saying is enough with the 420 tweet for their woes BS.

Yes Elon has made many mistakes. No argument there.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Well, he is a genius...stock manipulator. He must be short TSLA.

 

[Nocturnal]

I have friends driving Japanese/German cars that are Tesla curious but have similar reservations about Tesla financial health and long term viability even though I've unabashedly tried to sell them on the car despite my own problems with my copy.

It's easy to stereotype everyone who has reservations about TSLA as a bunch of ignorant pickup driving hillbillies but that hasn't been my experience at all. The one "pickup driving hillbilly" that I do know thought my car was amazing and couldn't stop gushing about how he'd mortgage his left nut to get the pickup if it ever ships.

Those objections don't make sense. Even in the worst case bankruptcy scenario somebody would come in and buy out Tesla and then continue to support the vehicles.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

“I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1," Musk said on the company's fourth-quarter earnings call. "Not by a lot, but I am optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and all quarters going forward."

and...?

He's optimistic. That's what he said.

Dan

 

[Alexander Grea]

Wallstreet was all over Tesla prior to Q32018 convinced no profit would occur or ever could without creative accounting. Oct 23, 2018 SP closed at $294.14. Oct 24, 2018 ER which was a beat and WS acting all surprised and oh, it’s a one time thing and they can’t repeat. Oct 25, 2018 SP closed at $314.86. SP went up and down for a bit but finally reached $354.31 by Nov 14, 2018. Continued to claw its way up reaching $366.60 on Dec 12, 2018 and then followed by a lovely, consistent decline to $295.39 by Dec 24, 2018.

So a little credit for a short period of time. Not ATHs for Tesla as you suggested. At this point TESLA should have been flirting with $400.

The DOW itself was all over the place during this time period. A high Oct 2nd, a low early Nov, then back down, then up and then down, down, down, down hitting its low right around Christmas. Tesla moved independently of the market until it didn’t in Dec.

Tesla Jan29 SP $296.38, Q4 call Jan 30, 2019. SP close Feb 1, $307.02. $317.22 was the highest it reached and it’s been downhill since then. WS called Q4 a miss! We talked about the manufactured miss here for days.

Tesla got negative credit for the Q4 profit while the DOW rose from Christmas until mid April, hovered, and then took its latest drop. Once again Tesla moved independently of the market until it didn’t, when the market took its very recent dump.

So on reflection two profitable quarters for Tesla and the SP finished where it started - artificially depressed, while the market ended up higher - in fact near its ATHs (with one panic sell in the middle). Wallstreet got what it wanted, threw a bone to the longs for a short period of time after Q3 and then started beating us over the head since Q4 profitability was announced.

Then along came the mixed bag of Q12019 and look where we are now. As if nothing of substance has happened at Tesla for a couple of years. As if Tesla didn’t prove they could be profitable. In fact if you hadn’t been paying attention and looked at the SP now you might get thinking Tesla was in big trouble.

Look at the charts. Dow wasn’t all over the place. It was down hard from October to December and TSLA was up hard thanks o executing on its promise.

TSLA was moving more or less together with macros until Elon announced the early date for q3 earnings. From that point onwards it was a pretty straight march up to 377 in December completely against the market crash.

Reaction to Q4 profit had nothing to do with Wall Street sentiment and everything to do with T Rowe liquidating there position of 1/10 of the entire company and doing it fast.