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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.
Oops. Cat is already out of the bag. Take it from me, you don’t ever get the cat back in. Like ever.
Maybe it’s already there and just not turned on yet. I don’t know, but I find it hard to believe that Elon and Tesla have not thought through snow and rain yet but have already jumped to turning on the RT fleet.
Supposedly the cameras are heated. Fwed alert: Tesla Autopilot: a look at the camera defrosters making the system work in the snow
$TSLA APPLE WANTED TO BUY TESLA? Check out my video on it guys. This implies a $340 valuation for Tesla. 66% Upside!
There are two possibilities, the car has passengers, the car does not have passengers.
With ultrasonics, and with the considerable overlap between the rear cam and the rear facing side cams, the car pulls over. On screen, the system displays the dirty cam alert, identifying the problem cam.
If there are passengers, they are requested to clean the cam and offered a half price journey.
If there are no passengers, the car requests assistance.
Not a show stopper, especially with other ameliorating actions, such as always starting shift with clean cams, non stick sprays, mud flaps, the fact that people avoid travel in such weather when possible.
Why do you have to have "experience"? Shipping is part of the cost and providing free shipping pretty much means cutting prices. They are the first to lower the free shipping limit to $25 and all the pundits thought Bezos is crazy and they have no way to make money. Later they have prime membership, and for a pretty long time they fixed the subscription price and added services. All the while there was no competitors in sight.
They also upgraded free no rush shipping to free two day shipping, now they want to shrink it further, without raising prices. It does not seem to me anybody is breathing down Bezo's neck forcing them to do this.
AWS has a 7 year lead and they had been cut prices well before Azure was even there. I remember years ago when I was still in Microsoft, heard Microsoft PMs debating how to price the Azure offering. The AWS was just too damn cheap.
I remember in one instance several years ago when model S and X has several month wait time, someone asked Elon since the cars are in such a high demand why don't you raise the price. Elon's the answer was in the line of "the car is pretty expensive already". It looks like he was thinking from a buyer point of view, not the seller.
I agree that Tesla's different from Amazon, and I am not saying they definitely do not have a demand problem for all the models. But the Amazon story tells me that cutting prices may not necessarily means demand problem.
I just can't keep up on thread for daily reading (even just skimming) anymore. So I'm only going to come around for the annual meeting, the P&D for each quarter, and quarterly conference calls.
Before leaving I'll give a brief (for this thread) review of my history with Tesla and TSLA.
I reserved my Model S in February of 2010. At that time I was thinking $50k or about there. As time went by I recognized that I would need much more than the base model. I wanted it for road trips, as well as daily driving. I had retired in 2008 and didn't want to be tied to a loan. The only way I could afford it would be by buying stock and hoping it went up enough. I believed in Tesla's mission. I figured worse case that I would lose my investment and never get the car. Even worse would be that Tesla would fail in its mission. In mid-2011 (about a year after its IPO) I discovered that the brokerage account in my TIAA-CREF retirement fund could be made self-directed. I gradually started selling off the stock in that account to buy TSLA. I then found that I could make my IRA a self-directed brokerage account as well. as well, so gradually started to convert that account to TSLA stock. By the end of 2012 that account was also all TSLA.
My wife hadn't been very happy about the $5k deposit I'd already made, but I told her I wouldn't buy the Model S unless/until the stock had appreciated to the level where I could pay for it with less than half the stock. In March of 2013, reports on Tesla and discussion on TMC were positive enough and I still had enough cash left to buy 200 shares at ~$36 a share and again in May another 100 shares at ~$56 a share. I was out of liquid assets at that point. This was purchased through Scottrade (now TD Ameritrade).
The cost basis for the TIAA-CREF account was about $33/share and the cost basis for the Scottrade account at that time was under $43/share.
By late May the stock took off. I did the arithmetic and said to myself that I had met my criterion for purchase. I sold enough shares at $94/share to pay for my 85kWh metallic brown Model S with nearly every option. Also the maximum number of years of ranger service, vinyl wrap, window tint. Extended warranty wasn't available in Washington State then. No performance, etc. At that time no sensors, no power folding mirror etc. were available. My wife couldn't have been more pleased and is even more vocal about the car than I. The big mistake I made was not waiting a few more months. If I had, I would have only sold about a quarter of my shares, and would have been able to buy my Model X last year.
Yes. I could still pay for the Model X even at today's diminished TSLA price, but I have a target minimum number of shares remaining.
I've been gradually increasing my TSLA holdings in TD Ameritrade since 2013. With my last purchase in pre-market this morning I increased that account by 10 shares at $201.36 and have a total in TD Ameritrade of 500 shares. The cost basis in that account to $127.41 per shares. Now I am completely out of liquid assets and will purchase no more more TSLA, unless a true short squeeze occurs. And I agree with Neroden and others. There are just too many MM controlling the SP and we'll never have a true squeeze. As it is, I probably won't get my Model X until the share price reaches $1K/share.
Well. 'bye for now.
I don't know how this will unfold. You should consider each scenario and plan ahead what to do for each case. The Puts can prevent an immediate margin call, but if the stock keeps going lower, you account would continue to shrink, your debt remains constant. I read a book long time ago, it said if you get a margin call, generally it's prudent to reduce your position to reduce margin, instead of adding more cash to your account to maintain the level of the losing position... however everyone's situation is different, every stock is different. I hope this will all workout fine for you.
Tesla dropping the Model S price by $3000 (and Model X by $2000) mid-quarter is not a reassuring sign. Sigh.
Also, having the most popular website covering your company tell people not to buy two of your three main products at this time is not helpful. Double sigh.
Yeah, that's not really the point here. If Apple puts a buyout price on TSLA, the SP instantly zooms to that level. To have a realistic chance of passing shareholder approval, that SP needs to be substantial.
Apple has $200B in cash (likey more cash than the Saudis). If they put say half of that toward buying Tesla, that values TSLA instantly at $100B / 175M shares = $570/share.
If they offer less it's another burst bubble but you can cash out and buy back later.
Not saying this offer will happen, or even is likely to happen. Jus' sayin' what it would do to the SP. Remember the words of Adam Janus?:
"Tesla is [blah, blah] and STRATEGICALLY UNDERVALUED"
P.S. I don't think this will happen, because Elon needs the Tesla Tech, not just the cash. Even if he HAD a few trillion in cash, where would he buy the tech he needs?? Exactly. Tesla, except he wouldn't be holding the wheel anymore. Ergo, buyout=non-starter.
The take private ship has sailed. Anything below $420 just looks shady since he’s driven the stock down single hand-idly.
How do disabled people drive when they can't wash their own car windows? There's rules for that. If safe, they drive slowly to a place where they can get help. If they can't drive safely, then they pull over and call for help. How do elderly people with night vision limitations keep their licenses? They drive during daylight hours:
It's not that complicated. You don't need to be Bobby Rahal to hold a basic driver's licence. There are grades of driver skills just like driver licences. The reasonable thing to do is put 'learner' type restrictions on early self-driving cars, and let them go out and learn. No night driving at first for example. No rain or winter conditions. There's still a huge swath of utility in that type of limited driving skill. But it won't get better without real-world miles.
Tesla's winning advantage will be the digital record of all driving events, especially the actions of other parties, during any accident investigation. They will have REAL evidence based learning opportunities, not the missed opporunities that most human drivers repeat now in court (at least the lucky ones). And their's is just individual trial and error learning. One person learned something.
Tesla FSD has FLEET LEARNING, and they have it right now.
Do you understand how exponential that makes the learning curve when a single event recorded by just one car in a fleet of millions can be rapidly distributed throughout the entire fleet?
FSD skill will grow exponentially with Fleet Learning. The SAE Self-Driving Levels themselves are insufficiently granular, and already form an obsolete rating system. Time to apply some more sensible, human-like categories and restrictions for FSD, so we can work on lifting those restrictions one by one. It's also time to get out on the road and get on with it.
Where is the spreadsheet? I've seen people referring to it, but can't find the link. Thanks!
Aren't the front facing cameras covered by regular windshield wipers? They're heated and wiped so at the very least a bug splat/bird drop can be wiped. Going to be sketch but I'd imagine between the radar and what, 3 different front cameras plus ultrasonics it would be possible to either alert the driver to take over [level 3] or park the car [level 4?] if there's no driver and/or or no steering wheel.
I think if Tesla can demonstrate their stuff works with clean cameras, it's going to be good enough. Pretty clear that solving for dirty cameras is trivial, and there's enough big metropolitan areas in US where heavy snow isn't a problem so the fleet can work there 99% of the time.
This ****ing Fred is a ****ing disease.
His words make me sick.
Well, that doesn’t conflict with ‘initial production in september’. That will be 1 car manually pushed through all stages in construction. Not ‘press the alien dreadnought button and the machine that builds the machine spits out a new car’.
For long term investors, it's a healthy time right now to go outside and get a life for a few months, away from thinking and talking about TSLA all the time. This forum can provide incredible insight but when the price is this choppy, there's a very major risk that what you read here only serves to draw out the emotive investor in you and make you think too short term. I'll drop in from time to time to read the sentiment but am unlikely to do much else here until things normalise. Would love to buy these dips but I don't want to break my personal 15% single-stock portfolio cap.
Thanks for the correct link, and now I know what you’re referring to.
You’ve misunderstood/disregarded the important context.
He was saying that taking orders online only would reduce prices—as a result of reduced expenses from closing retail stores. Not because of going to online only sales per se. And it’s not just “more” as you wrote, it’s completely online only.
Well, as you should also know by digging in a little more, just 1-2 weeks after that announcement, they’ve pretty much walked back on the entire idea. Only a single digit % of stores closed and as a result, they announced prices would go UP to offset the retail location expenses.
Not blaming you. Context is key.