Let’s put it this way. I bought into TSLA in 2013 around $180 when they were barely able to make 20,000 Model S’s a year.
Fast forward today with 400,000 Model S,X and 3 a year, supercharging network, Tesla energy, Gigafactory 1-3, Tesla Semi, Model Y, roadster, pickup, etc.
There is no way Tesla should be valued the same as 2013. This is Big Oil’s last chance to try and kill Tesla before it gets to the point of no return. Some would argue that we have already reached the point of no return but vested interest have not excepted that yet.
In 2013 they were a company showing up the industry with a ground breaking car that delivered to promises. Over the next 6 years, where might that take them? The car barely improved considering the steep progress in the BEV space. Management has been consistently missing nearly all guidances. Taking on debt, diluting stock, booking losses.
What's left today is a mid size car maker with very little variety in offering, barely taking into account what customers actually want in a next car, in stead telling them what they should want and do away with. Revolutionary robot lines underperform by 50% relative to guidance, after double the time taken. Obvious mismanagement, horrible communications policies getting them headline fines. Chairman has to step down over false information to the public. Next Model (Y) doesn't bring anything new, unclear why it could no be launched along the sedan back in 2017 as real car brands do. Energy side vastly restricted, can't take orders due to immens underperformance in cell production.
Communications focus on the wrong things, getting them in trouble when they unsurprisingly fail to deliver.
After Model 3 ramp-up which seems like it will never go past 60-70% despite more lines dedicated to it, the growth has gone. S and X have been so overpriced due to Model 3 existing, sales have dropped, forcing prices to be reduced. And reduced. And reduced. Really they had the tech to make a big upgrade in 2017, but offer a small one in 2019.
Guidance of profits turned into huge losses for unclear reasons in 19Q1. No big cell limitation, pipeline didn't cost that must in profits really. CFO steps down again. Awkward FSD presentations, company seems to bet everything on it and even Tesla engineers seem extremely skeptical it can actually be done. Hardware is (again) supposed to be FSD ready but it can't see fire trucks or semi trucks when they get in the way. People die and Tesla doesn't respond with action, just skewed statistics.
Right now, Tesla is a mid sized car maker that doesn't get to side projects, generated big losses, dilutes stock, adds debt and doesn't look to make a single of many guidances any time soon. The combination of growth that's capped for a good while next to no end of losses in sight, warrants a fraction of the revenue multiple in 2013.
2013: spectacular startup that shows a different future
2019: lacklustre car maker with too many side projects can't make the cars they promised and now seem to lack demand as well
The products are still industry leading, by a good bit, in the way they care for at least. Other brands do do a lot of thing much better.
Imagine Apple introduced their iPhones, but made about half of them over a longer period of time, booking substatial losses. Imagine how that would have affected their SP. Samsung and the like would have clubbered them with volume, service, price, profit, everything, years ahead of schedule. Short on resourced to develop products, would there even have been an iPhone 10?
Tesla right now is the company that could and should have been. Since until recently demand exceeded supply, not easy to explain how they manage to arrive at the situation before us to day. At least not if you're a devoted fan of the man, the vision, the brand, the company.
The 2013 share price was as usual with startups, overhyped.
In 2019, the SP is deflating as the revenue multiple heads towards sub-1 levels.
We may not like it, but I think it's not exactly uncalled for. Promises need to be maded true once in a while. Just a good product can be the death of any company that can't make the most of it.
