Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bramsvs]

(...)
I have an opinion as to what has gone wrong, but it's not a popular one on here. And many will have other and even more refined opinions.

Main result of all this: by 2019 and by 2025 and by 2030, Tesla has less market share and less turnover and less profit than we would have reasonably expected in 2013. Even though the competition is taking its sweet time, Tesla doesn't convert that into more domination.
Even Titanic was new and shiny and promising until the very last second. I have an opinion on that one as well which I think most people without deep economic and geopolitical knowledge will not appreciate.

Here, in December 2014, Morgan Stanley Analyst: Tesla Sales Forecast For 2020 Cut By 40% | CleanTechnica:

A 40% drop would mean that instead of selling 500,000 vehicles by 2020 — as Tesla is currently predicting — the company would sell no more than 300,000 by that date. Jonas has a “pessimistic” take on this count because, as he puts it, he simply has the opinion that the goal is unrealistic and unachievable.

In 2018 they delivered around 250k vehicles. I'm sure they'll blow right past Jonas' estimate of 300k in 2019. And probably even meet 500k in 2020, like 2014 expectations.

Your opinion and FUD makes no sense to me. I think this shiny company killing it

You don't even seem to be able to simply back your opinions with facts. Please tell me more about your deep economic and geopolitical knowledge

 

[HG Wells]

If I recall correctly Tesla uses 1,000 miles = 400kWh. So 5,000 miles = 20,000 kWh. If you watch the Bjorn videos you would see that they don't come off one-to-one. (I think he gets ~1.6 km for each km of credit in his Model 3.)

NO.
At 4 miles per KWH it's
1000 miles / 4 = 250 kWH
5000 miles / 4 = 1250 kWH

if 10 cents kWH then $125 dollars for 5000 miles. It's peanuts.

 

[schonelucht]

Which adds up to $507m? Was this reported incorrectly in your opinion?

No, it is reported correctly. What's not done correctly is your interpretation that this is his total outstanding debt for which Elon pledged those shares. He may very well have loans with banks that did not participate in underwriting the latest cap raise.

 

[Ratanpara]

Ok analysts, what new information you have that Tesla’s business is falling apart, they just following each other without absolutely no new information, bloomberg tracker showing they cranking 6K per week Model 3, if demand is in such bad shape Elon is not stupid he would cut production and lay off people.

 

[Fact Checking]

Looks like the recent funny tweets from Tesla's corporate account weren't Elon's but Adam Koszary's, new "social media manager" at Tesla:

Tesla's new social media manager used a sheep to land the job​

 

[anthonyj]

Why not just buy puts at 3:55 and sell them next day at market open? Literally double your money everyday. On fridays you can even 20x your money

 

[CorneliusXX]

Nice straw man. No, 85k means not on target for the low end of Musk’s 2019 estimate (that will be the narrative and yo know it). 90k means Q4 2018 wasn’t a fluke.

Just arguing hyperbole with hyperbole. It's obviously not "as simple as that", if they miss a target because of supplier issues or short term manufacturing issues it's a completely different position compared to lack of demand. Stating 90k with without qualification is easy to refute with a lower number.

 

[ruralectric]

Some people went on about camera visibility after being told this OT discussion had to end. Their posts have been removed. Any more posts on this subject will be worth a two week vacation.

Mod

Really appreciate your straight-up moderation style here Fred. Thank you.

 

[Tslynk67]

OK, chaps, I've decided I'm an analyst, so listen up!

My bull case for $TSLA is $4k - I didn't need to think about this too much, just agree with ARK, and even though it's a bit crazy, it is possible.

My bear case though, well the others have it totally wrong, $TSLA isn't going to zero, it's going negative, yeah, -$42, Musk will actually have to pay everyone money back!

Why? Nobody's going to ever buy a Tesla again, it's over, plus all the ones out there already will all catch fire and there'll be a big class-action = remember the "Optigrab" in The Jerk, well will be that all over again!

 

[davecolene0606]

No, it is reported correctly. What's not done correctly is your interpretation that this is his total outstanding debt for which Elon pledged those shares. He may very well have loans with banks that did not participate in underwriting the latest cap raise.

Again with maybe?

Fire Away!

 

[Fact Checking]

No, it is reported correctly. What's not done correctly is your interpretation that this is his total outstanding debt for which Elon pledged those shares. He may very well have loans with banks that did not participate in underwriting the latest cap raise.

Now you are going 100% fact free speculation and innuendo, and do you also expect us to prove a negative?

Yes, theoretically Elon might secretly owe Vladimir Putin two billion dollars and might have pledged all his remaining shares in Tesla and SpaceX to Vlad.

Meanwhile in the real world all reports suggest a much lower loan amount, plus Elon's use of liquidity yesterday is contrary to someone not having access to liquidity, right?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Buy the car now, then complain about future price drops and demand your money back or free upgrades.

As I got an "informative" and a "helpful", I am not sure everyone got my sarcasm. Obviously I was making fun of Thin Skinned Fred`s standard reaction.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

Why not just buy puts at 3:55 and sell them next day at market open? Literally double your money everyday. On fridays you can even 20x your money

or you buy around 10 am below 200 if you can, same principal but with a more long term strategy

 

[schonelucht]

1. That doesn't make sense because it implies his loan was at the limit of his collateral. You then restate your assumption (increase to 5 billion) based on an assumption (at the limit) as fact.
2. Others have point of the loan amount, and if we don't know the ratio, how can you make any of the claims in item #1?
3. Again, showing the basis of #1 is shaky

1. Your thesis is that Elon has significant amount of shares unnecessarily pledged? No, his financial advisers are wiser than that. His leverage ratio is closely watched by every single analyst and widely reported. They know the amount of shares pledged on the last day of the year is entered into public record. You better be sure they won't overstate it, if they can help it.
2. Others have misinterpreted the reports as being total while it just puts a lower floor on the amount of his loan. I pointed this out just a bit higher up.
3. I don't understand your rebuttal. Are you saying we can somehow confidently put a number of the amount of SpaceX stock owned by Elon that is open for pledging and also for how much the banks will value that as collateral?

Stock price in December was in the 300s, using the high water mark for the required size of collateral is not a valid premise, unless you also assume Elon keeps the loan pegged at the maximum which would imply he has already been margin called.

It's the other way around : the amount of shares pledged follow the stock price. For example, by the end of 2013, he had pledged over 10M shares at $150/share. By the end of 2014, the stock price was $220 and the amount of shares pledged dropped to 7.5 million.

 

[anthonyj]

or you buy around 10 am below 200 if you can, same principal but with a more long term strategy

Own too many shares at this point with seemingly no bottom in sight and constant hits on Tesla. Rather just bet $100-$200 on puts end of day and get sickkkk gainz

 

[Mike Smith]

Itay Michaeli at Citi says there's a 40% chance TSLA goes to $36, and a 60% chance it goes to 253 or higher. This is the stupidest call I've ever seen from an analyst.

 

[electracity]

In 2018 they delivered around 250k vehicles. I'm sure they'll blow right past Jonas' estimate of 300k in 2019. And probably even meet 500k in 2020, like 2014 expectations.

I think you are right, but what does free cash flow look ilke at those volumes? And more importantly, what is the ASP at the higher volumes? A lot is going to be learned over the next 2-4 quarters about what the mass market EV car buyer is willing to pay. Tesla has a lot of big projects to pay for in the next two years, including their portion of China gigafactory. Tesla has likely crossed a threshold where capital raises suppress share price.

Tesla was structurally designed to be a larger company than they likely will be in 2020. I do think YOY auto revenue growth of 50% can continue for a few more years. They are proving it is really hard to grow faster.

 

[Tslynk67]

Trying to park a Model S in Paris (let alone a Model X) is quite the challenge. European cities are very different from the Bay Area, where almost all of the land is taken up by huge parking lots. Parallel parking in small spaces is a vital skill, and "small space" and "model S" don't go hand in hand. Even underground parkings are a challenge for a model S unless you use summon (which due to regulations requires acrobatics), because the width of parking spaces is geared towards European-sized cars (or I dare say smaller French cars -- trying to park a BMW X5 is just as bad).

I think that'll change a lot with the arrival of the more Paris-friendly Model 3. It's still "too large", but not ridiculously large.

I destroyed my winter wheel rims trying to get out of an underground parking in Paris Next time I'll just park on the street and accept a ticket.

 

[Nathan]

Slight change of subject to something a little more relevant in my opinion.
Sorry, headline misleading.
Battery Expert Jeff Dahn Raves About Tesla's New Battery Chemistry

 

[schonelucht]

Now you are going 100% fact free speculation and innuendo, and do you also expect us to prove a negative?

Yes, theoretically Elon might secretly owe Vladimir Putin two billion dollars and might have pledged all his remaining shares in Tesla and SpaceX to Vlad.

I think it is you who is going on bender of innuendo here. There are many respectable banks that could have lend Elon money. Yes/No? Some of those banks are not underwriters Yes/No?

And what's even more mind boggling that the amount he owes is irrelevant. I am not even really interested in discussing his total debt since we can't know it. What's relevant is the minimum amount of collateral requested by his bank.

Meanwhile in the real world all reports suggest a much lower loan amount, plus Elon's use of liquidity yesterday is contrary to someone not having access to liquidity, right?

I never claimed that? Stop putting words into my mouth.

... While he is not getting margin calls, well over 50% of his TSLA holdings are now pledged. ...

I specifically pointed out he is only 25M shares in collateral and owns 33M + 4M ITM options. That does not sound like someone who is arguing that Elon does not have access to liquidity but exactly the opposite.