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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    In 2013 they were a company showing up the industry with a ground breaking car that delivered to promises. Over the next 6 years, where might that take them? The car barely improved considering the steep progress in the BEV space. Management has been consistently missing nearly all guidances. Taking on debt, diluting stock, booking losses.
    What's left today is a mid size car maker with very little variety in offering, barely taking into account what customers actually want in a next car, in stead telling them what they should want and do away with. Revolutionary robot lines underperform by 50% relative to guidance, after double the time taken. Obvious mismanagement, horrible communications policies getting them headline fines. Chairman has to step down over false information to the public. Next Model (Y) doesn't bring anything new, unclear why it could no be launched along the sedan back in 2017 as real car brands do. Energy side vastly restricted, can't take orders due to immens underperformance in cell production.
    Communications focus on the wrong things, getting them in trouble when they unsurprisingly fail to deliver.
    After Model 3 ramp-up which seems like it will never go past 60-70% despite more lines dedicated to it, the growth has gone. S and X have been so overpriced due to Model 3 existing, sales have dropped, forcing prices to be reduced. And reduced. And reduced. Really they had the tech to make a big upgrade in 2017, but offer a small one in 2019.
    Guidance of profits turned into huge losses for unclear reasons in 19Q1. No big cell limitation, pipeline didn't cost that must in profits really. CFO steps down again. Awkward FSD presentations, company seems to bet everything on it and even Tesla engineers seem extremely skeptical it can actually be done. Hardware is (again) supposed to be FSD ready but it can't see fire trucks or semi trucks when they get in the way. People die and Tesla doesn't respond with action, just skewed statistics.

    Right now, Tesla is a mid sized car maker that doesn't get to side projects, generated big losses, dilutes stock, adds debt and doesn't look to make a single of many guidances any time soon. The combination of growth that's capped for a good while next to no end of losses in sight, warrants a fraction of the revenue multiple in 2013.

    2013: spectacular startup that shows a different future
    2019: lacklustre car maker with too many side projects can't make the cars they promised and now seem to lack demand as well

    The products are still industry leading, by a good bit, in the way they care for at least. Other brands do do a lot of thing much better.
    Imagine Apple introduced their iPhones, but made about half of them over a longer period of time, booking substatial losses. Imagine how that would have affected their SP. Samsung and the like would have clubbered them with volume, service, price, profit, everything, years ahead of schedule. Short on resourced to develop products, would there even have been an iPhone 10?

    Tesla right now is the company that could and should have been. Since until recently demand exceeded supply, not easy to explain how they manage to arrive at the situation before us to day. At least not if you're a devoted fan of the man, the vision, the brand, the company.

    The 2013 share price was as usual with startups, overhyped.
    In 2019, the SP is deflating as the revenue multiple heads towards sub-1 levels.

    We may not like it, but I think it's not exactly uncalled for. Promises need to be maded true once in a while. Just a good product can be the death of any company that can't make the most of it.
     
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  2. NicoV

    NicoV Active Member

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    Tesla Carriers
     
  3. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Supporting Member

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    now it all makes sense
     
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  4. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    The number was just an example, sorry I didn't make that clear. I get four miles for every kWh.
     
  5. elasalle

    elasalle driVIN(188xx) it !!

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  6. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    We know exactly his loan balance 5xx million), since it was disclosed on the cap raise. So he’s not close to a margin call or any such nonsense.
     
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  7. Leo9

    Leo9 Member

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    $TSLA PT lowered to $191 from $238 at Citi. Maintains Sell rating.

    BofA/Merrill Lynch maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Underperform and target $225
     
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  8. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    And that seemed fair probably. Model S set standards Tesla has not been able to meet since. There has been progress, but only relative to Model S, not to how the company operates and achieves their targets. If you don't achieve a target, that has a huge impact on your fair valuation. The growth curve looking forward the SP is based off is ever flattening. And the condition for it are ever worse. From self funding to taking on debt and issuing stock in almost no time at all. From profitable hereonward to loss making for the foreseeable future.
    These things are on the management team more than on anything else, and they've not really changed despite all the goings and comings.
    A SP easily halves a few times over what Tesla has gone through these 6 years. I have an opinion as to what has gone wrong, but it's not a popular one on here. And many will have other and even more refined opinions.

    Main result of all this: by 2019 and by 2025 and by 2030, Tesla has less market share and less turnover and less profit than we would have reasonably expected in 2013. Even though the competition is taking its sweet time, Tesla doesn't convert that into more domination.
    Even Titanic was new and shiny and promising until the very last second. I have an opinion on that one as well which I think most people without deep economic and geopolitical knowledge will not appreciate.
     
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  9. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Moderator

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    #56869 Right_Said_Fred, May 22, 2019
    Last edited: May 22, 2019
    Some people went on about camera visibility after being told this OT discussion had to end. Their posts have been removed. Any more posts on this subject will be worth a two week vacation.

    Mod
     
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  10. stef

    stef Member

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    How many more shots WallStreet need to push it below $200?
    Sure looks like they are throwing the kitchen sink...
     
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  11. Leo9

    Leo9 Member

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    Should run out of analysts soon. :D
     
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  12. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope Ask Dr Stupid...

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    I think it was actually Zack that guided this figure, no? I might be wrong (as per usual), but that's what I recall.
     
  13. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    1. That doesn't make sense because it implies his loan was at the limit of his collateral. You then restate your assumption (increase to 5 billion) based on an assumption (at the limit) as fact.
    2. Others have point of the loan amount, and if we don't know the ratio, how can you make any of the claims in item #1?
    3. Again, showing the basis of #1 is shaky.
    *surgarty sugar* is claiming a previous assumption based on an assumption with no data as fact:
    You stated, as fact
    based on your hypothesis:
    based on your assumptions:
    starting from a questionable base:
    Stock price in December was in the 300s, using the high water mark for the required size of collateral is not a valid premise, unless you also assume Elon keeps the loan pegged at the maximum which would imply he has already been margin called.
     
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  14. Dan Detweiler

    Dan Detweiler Active Member

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    #56874 Dan Detweiler, May 22, 2019
    Last edited: May 22, 2019
    Hey, I look at it this way. If the price can hang on around $200 for another week, I'll able to go all in with the rest of my drying powder (waiting for the funds to clear). So, for now, I'm ok with where it is. I know, that's entirely selfish of me. Come to think of it though, isn't that sort of the nature of Wall Street anyway? Happy investing my friends. May all your money by multiplied 100 fold! (Unless your short Tesla. Then I hope you die by fire...slowly.) lol!

    Dan
     
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  15. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    The 90-100 was called out in the earnings letter:
    And referenced in the Q1 call per Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q1 2019 Earnings Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool:
     
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  16. bramsvs

    bramsvs Member

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    #56876 bramsvs, May 22, 2019
    Last edited: May 22, 2019
    Here, in December 2014, Morgan Stanley Analyst: Tesla Sales Forecast For 2020 Cut By 40% | CleanTechnica:

    In 2018 they delivered around 250k vehicles. I'm sure they'll blow right past Jonas' estimate of 300k in 2019. And probably even meet 500k in 2020, like 2014 expectations.

    Your opinion and FUD makes no sense to me. I think this shiny company killing it :)

    You don't even seem to be able to simply back your opinions with facts. Please tell me more about your deep economic and geopolitical knowledge ;)
     
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  17. HG Wells

    HG Wells Member

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    NO.
    At 4 miles per KWH it's
    1000 miles / 4 = 250 kWH
    5000 miles / 4 = 1250 kWH

    if 10 cents kWH then $125 dollars for 5000 miles. It's peanuts.
     
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  18. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    No, it is reported correctly. What's not done correctly is your interpretation that this is his total outstanding debt for which Elon pledged those shares. He may very well have loans with banks that did not participate in underwriting the latest cap raise.
     
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  19. Ratanpara

    Ratanpara Member

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    Ok analysts, what new information you have that Tesla’s business is falling apart, they just following each other without absolutely no new information, bloomberg tracker showing they cranking 6K per week Model 3, if demand is in such bad shape Elon is not stupid he would cut production and lay off people.
     
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  20. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Active Member

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