Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

In on 3, for multi-record breaking year!

EDIT: page 4, missed it by that much....

 

[AudubonB]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Congratulations @Tesla team!!

11:17 PM - 31 Dec 2018
.

Someone needs to read what V-Victory Red-Shirt, last row on the left, has for official production numbers in the notebook clenched in her left hand.

 

[tinm]

If it is a bear trap, that’s a fresh example of the journalistic intentionality that @Fact Checking just spoke of....hmm

Electrec article is cited in German "newspapers" as well...

Steuervorteil halbiert sich mit Jahresbeginn 2019: Tesla blieb 2018 auf 3000 Model 3 sitzen

https://app.handelsblatt.com/untern...ml?ticket=ST-3146976-DOZnUzeEHytkEe90GtrD-ap5

Nonsense... maybe a bear trap from Fred.

 

[Buckminster]

SpaceX porn

 

[Krugerrand]

I tried to imagine what we can expect from Tesla in 2019.

Tesla will very soon start production for China and for Europe, which allows compensate the demand which I expect to decrease to 3000 cars a week in average. This moves will allow Tesla to prevent price reductions in 2019 and securing high margins.

New entrants (e.g. from Porsche) are a risk the superior position of Model S and Model X. These models, which still still are crucial for Teslas profit, were also sold very good because they were available all over the world wile Model 3 wasn’t. To keep demand high, Tesla should upgrade Model S and X with the superior battery technology of Model 3 beginning of Q2. This would improve the density of the battery by 18% and increase efficiency during production and maybe also during driving. This enables the introduction of a new top configuration: 115 kW or 120 kW.
This change would cost Tesla about 10 GWh/year battery capacity at Gigafactory 1 which are expected to be 35 GWh/year by End of Q1, which means that model 3 quantities will not climb as fast as one could hope.

At the same time beginning of Q2 Tesla could introduce the new Supercharger V3. Teslike found out that Model 3 has an EPA Rating of 184 kWh and he expects an upgrade. For battery longevity and to motivate customers to buy high end versions, it is possible that only the LR Version gets this improvement, while MR gets at least at the beginning and SR no improved charging rate. Model X and S could get 240 kWh for the 100 kW version and 280 kWh for a possible 120 kW future top model. This approach would reduce the pressure for Tesla to instantly upgrade all Superchargers in the world from V2 to V3.

The autopilot hardware V3.0, which I expect to be groundbreaking, could be introduced beginning of Q3, to keep demand high after the cut in half of the tax credit.

Now about the new plant in Shanghai: The accelerated schedule sounds to me that they have chosen a solution which is as simple as possible. Maybe the planned capacity increase in Freemont from 7’000 units to 10’000 units a week was moved to Shanghai. Tesla has quickly built the “tent” assembly line. I believe them that they will be able to start up production in the second half of 2019. To make assembly as simple as possible and since alternatives to Tesla cars are cheaper in China than in North America or in Europe, they could the initial production limit to SR RWD. In this case it would make sense to retrofit an assembly line in Freemont to the SR configuration with the new battery pack end of Q2 (before the tax credit halves). This enables a smoother startup of the production in China and training of key personel of the Shanghai facility in Freemont. I expect the production of small quantities of Model 3’s SR including Premium Package for North America for a prize of 41’000 USD (3000 USD reduction for smaller battery size and 1000 USD for the easier to manufacture battery pack in comparison to MR). After that, I expect the stop of the SR production in Freemont until to December 2019.

For the whole year, I see the potential that Tesla could produce up to 460’000 cars, increase the revenue to up to 45 billion including the energy business and generate a profit of up to 2.4 billion.

When I read my calculated numbers, these numbers sound very bullish to me. We will see.

Um...no to pretty much all that.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hey, you, Happy New Year and all that!

By my reckoning, that makes it 2.999: Shaddrach on Twitter

Now that's a wrap: InsideEVs on Twitter

Actually, only posted to show off my new avatar - that's Snufkin... (name taken form the Tove Jansson Moomin books )

 

[Chickenlittle]

Welcome to the 2019 Investors' Roundtable. This year, we are not going to try to split discussions between a "Market Action" and a "General" thread, as years of experience has shown all are too enthusiastic about putting their opinions and observations in a fairly random dispersion.

So post here - but as a specific topic gets discussed over a series of posts, we'll split it off to its own thread; this Master Thread will serve as the catch-all unless and until such a pattern emerges.

Othermod: Even better if you split it out yourselves, don't wait for us. --ggr.

Until midnight on 31 December...in some time zone...this thread will remain locked. You are encouraged to post away in the 2018 threads until then, at which time those will be locked.

With the key thrown away!

Happy New Year, all.

Thank you for finally listening to what people have been telling you for over a year

 

[BornToFly]

SpaceX porn

Unbelievable. Amazing what Elon keeps creating from nothing.

 

[Buckminster]

I keep seeing forum members releasing personal details about themselves. Are they not worried about being doxxed? EVs are still pretty out there remember. Oh wait - it's 2019 - I thought we had gone back to 2009 again for a moment. Forget what I said...

 

[Navin]

Thank god the owner of Electrek agrees the Fred piece was dumb.

 

[AlMc]

I spent the day at Santa Barbara Tesla store helping out. We had a very good turn out of buyers. Most of the time I was filling people in, after delivery, with the finer points of all the capabilities of the cars and how to use them. I had this one woman who was about 65. She went from a Leaf to a Model X P100D. Her favorite part? She was laughing hysterically about the farts!

So, here I am New Years eve. No party, no drinking but writing on this forum. Does that make me a loser?

You are a winner and I give up the #1 spot for the coming model Y to you! A good deed should not go unrewarded.

 

[Fact Checking]

Thank you for finally listening to what people have been telling you for over a year

I think we should give @AudubonB and @ggr a lot more slack and a lot more credit for modifying the moderation policies of this thread than a 'finally' negative adverb ...

There's many disadvantages to 'fire hose' forums as well:

• discussions get quickly lost in the high volume,
• not everyone has the time to meaningfully follow ~10 pages of posts with 200 posts per day,
• the discussions can get more shallow in general,

Expecting more self-discipline from otherwise intelligent members and expecting them to not post off-topic in the 'Market Action' thread was an IMHO overall very defensible mistake to make.

I also think it's a good trait to listen to feedback and change direction. Let's see how this works out?

 

[JRP3]

There's many disadvantages to 'fire hose' forums as well

The point is that's what it ended up being anyway. Splitting the discussion was a worthy experiment that didn't work.

 

[Navin]

Fast Checking - can you share some info on who you are without revealing who you are? Any book recommendations?

 

[HG Wells]

I just checked the European crowdsourced Model 3 order list, and the estimated number of orders is at 13415 atm.
With about 500 people on this list this seems like a representative estimate.
It will be interesting to see these numbers change over the coming weeks.

Link to list. Not finding it with Google.

 

[Krugerrand]

You are a winner and I give up the #1 spot for the coming model Y to you! A good deed should not go unrewarded.

You can’t give up my spot! This is not a good way to start the new year. Shame. Shame. Shame. Shame.

 

[Earlian]

Link to list. Not finding it with Google.

This one?

Tesla Model 3: Europa Bestellungen/Europe Orders

 

[Unpilot]

I agree in general - but I also think that Tesla's and Elon's relationship with the mainstream media goes way beyond overworked journalists making forgivable mistakes. Instead I think there's a core set of hardened anti-Elon and anti-Tesla FUDsters, right at the epicenter of mainstream journalism, who are doing incredible damage for dollars and giggles. That the rest of journalism follows them through news aggregation like lemmings is not an accident either, it's very much by design.

So yes, I think it's a factual and fair criticism that journalism as a profession and as a social group failed big time when it comes to news about Elon Musk and Tesla in 2018 - and there's no healing without acceptance of that plain fact.

Note that here I'm not promoting some sort of Trumpian conspiracy theory of 'everyone against us' mentality, with outright hostility against all journalists in essence, which poses a grave existential threat to them. Personally I'm very much willing to forgive past Tesla FUD the moment a journalists changes the tune on a water down the bridge basis, and things are slowly changing in that area. But I don't think it's constructive to fear the honest, factual criticism of this systemic failure of journalism that last year's Tesla and Elon reporting clearly was.

This in spades. I do not follow all news sources as closely as some here. BUT almost without fail when I see an article about Tesla either in print or video there is a negative slant. If it is a CNBC video there is ALWAYS a phrase like "Crazy Elon" or "Wild CEO".

It has gotten a little better... but how the success of Tesla is not celebrated with at least equal amounts of press is sad and a little disheartening. So I don't expect the press to be a cheerleader but I do expect it to not actively try and drive the company down.

It is our job to point out the failings in this regard IMHO.

 

[avoigt]

$TSLA Tesla Price Target Raised to $550(from $500) by Global Equities' Chowdhry


Twitter

 

[AWDtsla]

Rich Rebuilds documents a real bear case for Tesla, they can't get their *sugar* together. It's just embarrassing at this point.