Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

Elon practically wrote off this possibility yesterday when he tweeted:

"Yes. To be clear, Plaid powertrain is about a year away from production & applies to S,X & Roadster, but not 3 or Y. Will cost more than our current offerings, but less than competitors."

6:54 PM - 11 Sep 2019​

If Roadster and the new S/X were based on a Model 3 platform, then Model 3/Y could receive the "Plaid powertrain". But Elon says they won't get it. Its most likely 3/Y don't have the width to house the dual motor system, and its too much expense to build a 2nd custom solution for what was always intended as the mid-range product.

Cheers!

No, the same reason the 3 will not get the adaptive suspension. Product segmenting, there is no need for Plaid mode in a 3 when it has the track option. Want more capability, step up the product line to the S/X/Roadster.

 

[hobbes]

Crazy price action... Something must have changed yesterday, volume way up. And I don´t think it has anything to do with lap times. Unless it is something we don´t know about, I´d say most likely continued rumours about VW stake in Tesla.

 

[204EV]

My guess on all the price movement stems from one-word CONFIDENCE!

New drivetrain/timeline announced with huge ASP/Margin premium ->shown working
New factory 2nd phase started
Adding solar to Freemont (shows free capital/belief in the product)
Musk in good mood(usually means things are working)
VW specifically saying he doesn't believe Tesla is in any position to go Bankwupt

**edit: almost forgot starting to do Retrofits of HW3

 

[HG Wells]

The buyer must be in the break room.

 

[mongo]

I would typically agree that both rear motors need the same gear ratio, but with the amount of compute available, and the zero delay, precise control of electric motors, don't you think they could have different ratios but match them via software for output?

Yes, but at the top end, one has more power than the other so either you limit to the lower ability motor, or torque steer in a circle.

I believe it's often directly connected to an explosive charge which is placed right next the high voltage power lines in the battery pack, which lines are mechanically and irreversibly severed when that button is pushed and the charge goes off.

On the plus side it results in a saved prototype that probably won't go up in flames, but also results in the immediate bricking of the car.

For Tesla, it is likely in the contactor safety circuit loop.

There is another way to do this, to have three gear ratios with three motors, without having unequal application of power to left and right wheels. I don't think it's what Tesla's doing, because you can't do electric torque vectoring with it - although, I can't quickly find any first-party (Tesla official or Musk) claims that the Roadster actually has torque vectoring, it's just been assumed based on the Semi not having any differential and therefore having torque vectoring - but it has been done before, in Formula E.

So, Formula E's rules in the past seasons have allowed two motors, but only when working through a differential (specifically to prohibit torque vectoring). The initial season had a spec powertrain with one motor and a 5-speed gearbox (the torque curve was actually detuned to feel more like an ICE to ease familiarity for racing drivers). Most teams stuck with single-motor powertrains, and have converged on single-speed (on short city tracks, even a 2-speed isn't necessary).

However, three different manufacturers (NextEV/NIO, DS, and Nissan) have tried dual motor powertrains, geared to the same differential with different gear ratios.

NextEV/NIO had major problems with their dual motor system being too heavy initially, and then just not working well (but their team is now a backmarker even with a single motor).

DS Virgin did decently (but never getting a championship) in spite of the added weight (at the rear of the car, and Formula E cars are already Porsche 911-levels of rear-heavy)... but for Season 5, DS switched teams to Techeetah, and to a single motor, and dominated the championship.

Nissan... they've been accused of using a form of power split device to use one of the motors as a flywheel energy storage device, which was helping them get more regen than the (spec) battery allowed, and accelerate out of corners faster. This was determined based on audio analysis of their car, and very weird behavior that the cars had (including frequently losing control with the front wheels locked up, with top-class drivers) under braking. The Formula E staff decided not to penalize Nissan for it (they weren't winning races anyway) and convinced teams to not protest Nissan's results, but they did end up banning dual motor powertrains for next season entirely.

Can do with a diff, but independent real whel control is a better design. No diff, no braking for traction control.

 

[204EV]

Yes, but at the top end, one has more power than the other so either you limit to the lower ability motor, or torque steer in a circle.



For Tesla, it is likely in the contactor safety circuit loop.


Can do with a diff, but independent real whel control is a better design. No diff, no braking for traction control.

It would be an interesting thing to be REGEN while at full throttle through a corner (inside wheel regening to make up diff lol)

 

[Fact Checking]

Wow, big swings in the price with no matching macro moves, and a strong effort to keep it below $250.

 

[azaz]

wild swings today

 

[humbaba]

In places other than California, we have snow, and my S is so quiet when there is snow on the ground, I can literally sneak up on people. I have had to roll the window down at times to talk to the pedestrian, to let them know I’m coming up behind them before. as Long as the sound isn’t a fake ICE sound, I’m all for it...

As long as it applies to all vehicles, I'm okay with it. Silent running vehicles are not new. I encountered them decades ago. I've also surprised people in parking lots -- when I still drove a gasoline car. I also surprised some in my Tesla, despite having the windows down and music playing. (And, no, they did not have head phones or other distractions.)

Anyone who has been in a parking lot has surely encountered pedestrians who were angrily surprised by the car backing out. Decades before we had EVs this was a "problem" but somehow only EVs must bear a scarlet letter.

People are oblivious and it is on the driver to, you know, drive responsibly and not drive threateningly close or hit them.

 

[Unpilot]

wild swings today

I have to go take a walk I am getting whiplash with this price action!

 

[VValleyEV]

UPDATE that may be relevant here in 2 respects as interesting data points:

1. I ordered M3 SR+ but subsequently updated the order to LR AWD. My wife test drove the SR+ and loved it, seemed like a perfect fit because we already have a LR MS so would continue to use that for road trips. BUT I just couldn’t keep from advising her to go ahead and kick in another $9k ($10 with sales tax i AZ), a whopping 25% bump. Reasons/rationalizations:

• FSD is a must for old farts like us, and hard to invest that $6k future-proofing in the shorter range “discount model”.
• A few other limitations in the SR+ are at the annoyance level, not having traffic info on the maps, and a TBD slightly less fancy sound system (we are music lovers and performers).
• Who knows, We might move to a 1-car family in the future sometime, and the 3 might be plenty big so why scrimp on range and features if we don’t have to? Our MS is a Feb 2018 build, we love it but strictly speaking it is the “older” car with MCU1.
• EDIT: If we absolutely love the 3, I might consider trading in the S for a pickup, or maybe a fancy electric motorcycle? Seems like a perfect plan for someone in mid-70s.

2. Real interesting to see what our actual delivery date will be, given we are approaching end of quarter.

• It has been a week since I placed the original order with a $2500 deposit, and 2 days since upgrading it from SR+ to LR AWD. I didn’t “cancel and re-submit” the order, had a salesman (correction, sales advisor) change it from the Tesla end, supposedly the least amount of disruption that way. My account on the website has remained “expect delivery in 2 weeks from order placement” throughout this time. No VIN number yet, am in the state of “we are preparing a contract with your payoff amount”.
• We are approaching the end of the time window to get M3’s shipped to EU in time for Q3 recognition, so I would expect that orders like mine will be pushed back as long as they can and still make the end of the month and Q3, in favor to shipping to EU.
• I would guess that moving from SR+ to LR AWD should not make much difference to that deliver local vs ship to EU decision, since both are available in EU now, but maybe some difference because margin is better on LR AWD.

Latest update on ordering/delivery data point that may be of interest, have heard that’s delivery times can be all over the map, so here is mine, (I have a 2018 MS, this is an order for a new M3 for spouse)

Tesla delivery folks called me yesterday (Wednesday) saying the car will be in Thursday and ready for delivery late afternoon. I set up a delivery time for Friday 1pm.

Timeline, which was a pleasant surprise to me:

Order placed 29Aug for SR+
Order upgraded 5 days later on 3Sep to LR AWD model
Car ready for local delivery on 12Sep (elected to pick it up on 13Sep):

• Delivery available exactly 2 weeks from order date
• Delivery available only 9 days after order was upgraded to a different car
• This seems terrific, comfortably within the “within 2 weeks”, especially given the end of quarter rush and competition with getting max number of cars shipped overseas.

Other observations:

• After upgrading the order on 3Sep, I immediately completed all steps on my Tesla account website, got to “we are drafting a contract and will notify you when we have a payoff amount”, which was already known, just needed them to open the payment portal.
• I compulsively checked the account website and my email inbox daily to see if a VIN got added or the contract sent or payment portal opened or anything at all. Nothing happened for 9 days until the voice call from the delivery team. I was preparing myself for a late Sep or even Oct delivery, which saddened me because would be after my wife’s birthday and the car is for you.
• When I got the call, my account website STILL said “we are drafting a contract blabla”, and no payment portal open. Delivery team was puzzled, said ok it will be open later today which it finally was.
• This just barely gave me time to use a bank transfer to pay for the car before I picked it up. This either means that they are not on top of the planning, and/or they really had no clue when they were gonna get a car until the last minute.

Tomorrow we should have a 100% BEV Tesla fleet (if you can consider 2 vehicles a fleet), and a gasoline fume-free garage. We are sad to see the Jeep Rubicon go, but don’t use it much these days, better to have 2 extremely nice road cars. We were going to wait for a BEV truck, the Rivian or the Tesla, but we have to admit (grudgingly) that we don’t really need a truck.

 

[HG Wells]

I have to go take a walk I am getting whiplash with this price action!

Why not go sail planing. More ups and downs.
Tow rope breaks are a thrill.

 

[azaz]

got a gut feeling we end around 255 today. some battles going on right now to keep the price below 250 tho.

 

[humbaba]

Clauida Assis of MarketWatch has acknowledged yesterdays climb (I saw some posts wondering about coverage of this). A pretty bare post -- perhaps couldn't think of anything negative to add?

Tesla stock jumps nearly 5%, its best in seven weeks

 

[scaesare]

Actually front small induction and rear 2 X PMSR also makes sense...

I had a previous discussion where the main advantage of induction was that the motor could coast... on a track it is mostly acceleration or regen, not much coasting.

I wonder if they'd trade off the range/efficiency for performance in the + model... the performance cars have always been lesser rated on range.

 

[scaesare]

• 3-motor configuration with three separate gearing ratios that distributes power output over a wide wheel RPM range from 0 to ~250 km/h with ~300 km/h top speed.

This would seem non-ideal if torque vectoring is a goal.

ON EDIT- I see already discussed (happens every time I ignore my own rule to read to the end of the thread before posting my reply).

 

[Tslynk67]

Jeeze, this is volatile today!

And just to add to it:

When will this crap ever stop?

 

[Joe F]

SP swing more following tweet action from Whitehouse and China news and then denials.

Manipulator in Chief.

 

[Artful Dodger]

No, the same reason the 3 will not get the adaptive suspension. Product segmenting, there is no need for Plaid mode in a 3 when it has the track option. Want more capability, step up the product line to the S/X/Roadster.

By your reasoning, BMW would only make an M5 and never an M3. Lets agree to disagree.

 

[Tslynk67]

Indeed, you are right, that was bogus - not my day ...



Note the very interesting rear spoiler on their Nürburgring prototype:

Well that's going to kill the range!!