Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Charging infrastructure is already quite plentiful, although more is needed urgently as Model 3 has just started deliveries in, for example, Slovenia. That country is small but has allegedly the per-capita highest luxury car penetration in Europe.

I'm pretty sure Monaco beats them in that metric.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone buying a new Lexus/BMW/MBZ, etc., without a very specific use case (such as living in a very remote yurt with no electricity sunshine OR wind), is PART OF THE PROBLEM.

FTFY.

 

[Stars aligned]

Etrade NEVER sends me these types of emails. Personally I've never been short anything nor ever held puts. I wonder what induced them to run this promotion

View attachment 455523

It's unlikely humanitarian. I guess that stock market risks rose over the weekend and a US counterstrike would make markets tumble, so such options could gain massively. Buying them back reduces risks for the writers, hence the special deal.

 

[MC3OZ]

A person calling himself Ed Niedermeyer apparently created that account to write the following TMC message to me, approximately 10 months ago, with various ways to contact him:

"Niedermeyer, Oct 26, 2018

Are you Elon Musk?

Hey Fact Checking, I'm a reporter for Automotive News. Sorry to bother you here, but I didn't know how else to reach you.

I couldn't help but notice that a lot of people in the Market Action thread think you are Elon Musk and you haven't really denied it. I've also read through a lot of your posts, and I totally see why people think you are Elon. In fact, it's pretty tough to imagine who else you might be. And it's not just me... my editors find the evidence convincing enough to have asked me to write a story about the situation.

So I pretty much have to just blurt it out: are you Elon Musk? More specifically, does Elon Musk or anyone who works for him directly or indirectly post from the "Fact Checking" account?

If I have the wrong end of the stick here and the answer to both of the above questions is "no," I have no interest in doxxing a non-public-figure. If there is no public news interest in the identity of the person or people behind the "Fact Checking" account and you can prove it, I would keep any personally-identifying information you share confidential. That said, I do need some kind of evidence one way or another.

If you are not Elon I think the best way to proceed would be for you to give me a call or text at five four one five two zero five six two two (Signal or Whatsapp are fine if you prefer), or drop me an email at edward.niedermeyer [at] gmail [dot] com and/or eniedermeyer [at] crain [dot] com.

If you are Elon, it should be super easy to prove. You could call me, email me from a Tesla or SpaceX account or even just tweet something about Vienna so I know this is you.

Thanks in advance for getting back to me about this.

Ed Niedermeyer"​

(I never tried to call or text the (+1)-5415205622 number, or tried to contact the [email protected] or [email protected] email addresses to verify whether that's Edward Niedermeyer or not, so these might just be fake and part of an elaborate prank.)

So this message is why someone claiming to be the "Tesla Deathwatch" guy has an account on TMC apparently, and no, I'm not Elon, nor connected to him in any direct or indirect fashion.

I'm really curious how Niedermeyer is going to explain his past views about Tesla in a couple of years, should Tesla reach 1 trillion dollars in market valuation.

Don't worry Elon, your secret is safe with us

 

[Fact Checking]

For those following the Nürburgring race, the key dates to watch are September 18, September 21 and September 25, because those are the days on which Tesla has purchased exclusive track time (longest slot about ~2 hours), according to:

Tesla-Attacke auf den Porsche Taycan: Stärkeres Model S übt für den Ring-Rekord​

Tesla has built an improvised repair, maintenance and recharging facility right on Nürburgring premises:

Tesla is testing and tuning on the Ring every day, and their driver is Thomas Mutsch, who is not as well known as Nico Rosberg, but is considered a Nürburgring specialist, who achieved several official Nürburgring lap records.

Here's a video from yesterday, the Plaid prototype can be seen at 2:48, the Taycan at 5:00:

(Does anyone here have time to load that video into a video editor and compare the frame count between the Model S and the Taycan run? Both were driving that corner aggressively and were accelerating out of it hard, were not hindered by other cars and the camera vantage is identical - so time measurement with ~0.1 sec accuracy should be possible.)

Tesla is certainly taking this very seriously.

If the article is accurate then Tesla's earliest Nürburgring record attempt (or at least the first hot lap) can be expected on September 18, Wednesday next week - weather permitting.

​

Just a small update for those following the Nürburgring record attempt spectacle, tomorrow is reportedly the first slot Tesla has with no other traffic on the track, here's the expected weather conditions on the Nürburgring for the three key dates:

• September 18: 20°C, fair, no precipitation
• September 21: 21°C, fair, no precipitation expected
• September 25: 17°C, cloudy, no precipitation expected

The 21st (this Saturday) is their largest slot, reportedly 2 hours long. The weather forecast should be pretty accurate for tomorrow and reasonably accurate for Saturday (there's no big fronts expected) - but still uncertain on the 25th around which time a big front is expected (or not).

Temperatures are I think not low enough yet to have significant amounts of leaves on the track, which would be a safety hazard:

(I don't think there's any reasonable way to clean a 20.6 km long track. [edit: when the weather is windy, which it often is.])

Anyway, these are fairly good racing conditions considering that it's late September - not as good as the day the Taycan had in August of course: every 10°C drop in air temperature increases drag by about 3-4%, which is a very significant factor on this very fast track costing several seconds of lap time. Colder track surface also has less grip I believe.

It's going to be a nail-biter.

 

[Fact Checking]

V10 EAP is a bit of a let down from revenue recognition perspective.

It doesn't include Smart Summon, though that can come in later since it has already been in EAP for sometime.

There is no "recognition of traffic lights and stop lights" that is in the release notes / description from any of the people with EAP.

So - may be we shouldn't expect any extra recognition of deferred revenue in Q3.

Advanced Summon does appear to be in V10, according to @ZachShahan:

Tesla Autopilot & Lane Change Improvements — Tesla Software V10 (Review) | CleanTechnica

'Aside from “Tesla Theater,” the coolest new feature in V10 software has to be the Advanced Summon feature. I was able to watch it in action, but it didn’t seem appropriate or considerate to record the car using this feature while it’s still only available to Early Access Tesla owners. It’s wild, though, and I’ll be sure to create and share videos of my Model 3 using Enhanced Summon once it’s in wide release.'​

It's unclear whether owners of "EAP" would receive it, but I see no reason why not if FSD owners receive it?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yup. One person's aesthetics is another's anesthetic.

View attachment 453776

Cheers!

Meanwhile, BMW has seen their own future, and its eating itself.

Yup, just checked with the IPCC, and they've confirmed this will not wait until 2060.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's only true when measured per capita. Working-class people comprise the vast majority of pollution overall because they comprise most people.

Ah, no. This is a common fallacy that has been thoroughly debunked. The reality is that the variables that best predict carbon footprint are per capita living space, energy used for household appliances, meat consumption, car use, and vacation travel.


https://go.redirectingat.com/?id=66...ts/mb-extreme-carbon-inequality-021215-en.pdf
It’s not that the pro-environmental behaviors chosen by wealthy, eco-conscious people don’t reduce energy use and carbon footprint. They do, just not by very much. And what effect they have is swamped by the much larger effects of wealth, age, and status.

EDIT: click the image above for the 2015 Oxfam Study: (in PDF format)

"EXTREME CARBON INEQUALITY"
- Why the Paris climate deal must put the poorest, lowest emitting and most vulnerable people first​

 

[22522]

Just a small update for those following the Nürburgring record attempt spectacle, tomorrow is reportedly the first slot Tesla has with no other traffic on the track, here's the expected weather conditions on the Nürburgring for the three key dates:

• September 18: 20°C, fair, no precipitation
• September 21: 21°C, fair, no precipitation expected
• September 25: 17°C, cloudy, no precipitation expected

The 21st (this Saturday) is their largest slot, reportedly 2 hours long. The weather forecast should be pretty accurate for tomorrow and reasonably accurate for Saturday (there's no big fronts expected) - but still uncertain on the 25th around which time a big front is expected (or not).

Temperatures are I think not low enough yet to have significant amounts of leaves on the track, which would be a safety hazard:

(I don't think there's any reasonable way to clean a 20.6 km long track.)

Anyway, these are fairly good racing conditions considering that it's late September - not as good as the day the Taycan had in August of course: every 10°C drop in air temperature increases drag by about 3-4%, which is a very significant factor on this very fast track costing several seconds of lap time. Colder track surface also has less grip I believe.

It's going to be a nail-biter.

A street sweeper could do it on a calm day.

 

[Fact Checking]

A street sweeper could do it on a calm day.

Windy days are the norm in the autumn though.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Ah, no. This is a common fallacy that has been thoroughly debunked. The reality is that the variables that best predict carbon footprint are per capita living space, energy used for household appliances, meat consumption, car use, and vacation travel.

View attachment 455745

It’s not that the pro-environmental behaviors chosen by wealthy, eco-conscious people don’t reduce energy use and carbon footprint. They do, just not by very much. And what effect they have is swamped by the much larger effects of wealth, age, and status.

Yep.
Environmental footprint probably follows a power law (ie. and exponential function), correlated with wealth. A single billionaire impacts the world as hundred thousands (maybe more) very poor people.

 

[AZRI11]

down.

Endless lawsuits and forced changes

A person calling himself Ed Niedermeyer apparently created that account to write the following TMC message to me, approximately 10 months ago, with various ways to contact him:

"Niedermeyer, Oct 26, 2018

Are you Elon Musk?

Hey Fact Checking, I'm a reporter for Automotive News. Sorry to bother you here, but I didn't know how else to reach you.

I couldn't help but notice that a lot of people in the Market Action thread think you are Elon Musk and you haven't really denied it. I've also read through a lot of your posts, and I totally see why people think you are Elon. In fact, it's pretty tough to imagine who else you might be. And it's not just me... my editors find the evidence convincing enough to have asked me to write a story about the situation.

So I pretty much have to just blurt it out: are you Elon Musk? More specifically, does Elon Musk or anyone who works for him directly or indirectly post from the "Fact Checking" account?

If I have the wrong end of the stick here and the answer to both of the above questions is "no," I have no interest in doxxing a non-public-figure. If there is no public news interest in the identity of the person or people behind the "Fact Checking" account and you can prove it, I would keep any personally-identifying information you share confidential. That said, I do need some kind of evidence one way or another.

If you are not Elon I think the best way to proceed would be for you to give me a call or text at five four one five two zero five six two two (Signal or Whatsapp are fine if you prefer), or drop me an email at edward.niedermeyer [at] gmail [dot] com and/or eniedermeyer [at] crain [dot] com.

If you are Elon, it should be super easy to prove. You could call me, email me from a Tesla or SpaceX account or even just tweet something about Vienna so I know this is you.

Thanks in advance for getting back to me about this.

Ed Niedermeyer"​

(I never tried to call or text the (+1)-5415205622 number, or tried to contact the [email protected] or [email protected] email addresses to verify whether that's Edward Niedermeyer or not, so these might just be fake and part of an elaborate prank.)

So this message is why someone claiming to be the "Tesla Deathwatch" guy has an account on TMC apparently, and no, I'm not Elon, nor connected to him in any direct or indirect fashion.

I'm really curious how Niedermeyer is going to explain his past views about Tesla in a couple of years, should Tesla reach 1 trillion dollars in market valuation.

I think fact checking is Elon

 

[Artful Dodger]

Windy days are the norm in the autumn though.

Dry leaves aren't an issue; wet leaves would be a problem. Happily, the forcast is for no rain and moderate temps. I think the cooler temps vs. the Taycan track day will be a net benefit since overheating is a bigger limit than top speed. The difference between 255 kmh and 300 kmh on the back straight is about 3 sec. That could easily be made up with stronger acceleration before bumping up against the thermal limits. Hope there's a new design battery pack in that P100D+

Cheers!

 

[LeChef92]

Subject: Nürnburgring

A German newspaper claims that one of its observers measured a hand-stopped lap time of 7:23.
In comparison the unofficial time of the Taycan: 7:42.

Source: (article in german)
Tesla-Attacke auf der Nordschleife
Only the part with header: "Handgestoppte 7:23 Minuten – Porsche locker geschlagen" is new, rest of the article is just general inforamtion regarding the Tesla Porsche contest (#Massacre).

If this time is right, a racetrack optimized Model S P100DL should also be able to beat the Taycan record with the normal Raven engines.

 

[KarenRei]

And NIMBYs, apparently no one wants a clean mode of transportation (though noisy) in their backyard.

California’s Bullet Train Goes Off the Rails

"California had its own unique problem: intransigence from a small but vocal set of opponents. The high-speed rail project has been under a mile-by-mile assault. Cascading lawsuits and NIMBY-like resistance to the train’s presence dragged out the timeline, which just through inflation and surging land costs increased the price tag. It’s been a familiar two-step: opponents use available tools to grind projects to a halt, thereby ballooning costs. And then they complain that the projects cost too much."

Like I stated, ironic, isn't?

Just Google it.

I actually googled last night what exactly went wrong with the project, because I was curious. And while a ton of ideas were put forward, a number were more convincing than others, including:

• The referendum was too proscriptive. Referendum results are for all practical purposes effectively bound in stone. If the referendum spells out in detail specific details about the project, the project cannot adapt based on issues that come up during development.
• The project put too much of a political focus on getting Central Valley residents supportive of the project - something which it never actually accomplished.
• The project started building in the Central Valley (for the aforementioned reason), effectively locking even more of the project in stone and restraining its ability to adapt further.
• The project was based on excessive amounts of over-optimism, including on:
  • Initial ridership estimates
  • Initial price estimates
  • Federal support (relying on other people giving you massive amounts of support that they're not committed to = bad idea)
  • Private support (same)
• The project cost estimates were in 2007 dollars, which grew both with inflation and overruns, but the ~$9B offset was in constant dollars, and thus became an ever-diminishing amount relative to the total costs.

There were a lot of others, but these were the ones that stood out in my mind.

The thing that annoys me is that such a high-profile failure is going to discourage others - to a lesser extent even outside of the US - from embarking on ambitious transit projects.

 

[RobStark]

VW, BMW, JLR differ on best choice for EV architecture efficiency

VW recently doubled its order of battery boxes for MEB cars from Gestamp to 570,000 a year. The order indicates greater confidence that customers will switch to EVs as European laws tighten on carbon dioxide emissions starting in 2020.

VW's confidence is partly because it has the scale -- even more so now that Ford has agreed to use MEB for a range of European electric cars. For those without the brand reach to spread the investment, a flexible platform makes more sense.

The I-Pace platform, designed as a halo car to beat Jaguar's premium rivals to market, is not expected to be further developed. Instead JLR will migrate models to its new flexible Modular Longitudinal Architecture starting next year. The first model to use it will be an electric version of the XJ large sedan.

 

[Fact Checking]

overheating is a bigger limit than top speed

I don't think overheating is in any way an issue with the Plaid prototype (or with Raven for that matter), they solved that problem with the Model 3's variable air intake system already, it's a matter of properly sized air intakes (for the air->glycol heat exchanger) and of the compressor based cooling system. Heat generation is a small percentage of the power used, and cooling is a function of heat generation.

Drag at high speeds is a primary limit though, costing ~250 kW at 300 km/h. So 3.5% more drag means +9 kW more is used, which alone is more than the cooling capacity of the Model 3 compressor...

All other things equal +3.5% of drag reduces a top speed of 300 km/h to about 289 km/h.

 

[Cyrusis]

Tesla's Gigafactory 3 successfully passes "comprehensive acceptance" and will soon be able to manufacture Model 3 vehicles. (Twitter Source)

Here is a link to a Teslarati article.

 

[KarenRei]

Dry leaves aren't an issue; wet leaves would be a problem. Happily, the forcast is for no rain and moderate temps. I think the cooler temps vs. the Taycan track day will be a net benefit since overheating is a bigger limit than top speed. The difference between 255 kmh and 300 kmh on the back straight is about 3 sec. That could easily be made up with stronger acceleration before bumping up against the thermal limits. Hope there's a new design battery pack in that P100D+

Cheers!

Hmm, interesting balance of issues.

Pack cooling should benefit greatly from a 10° temperature drop (small difference between pack and exterior temperature = greatly amplified by temperature drops). Motor cooling would benefit significantly less, however; motors are allowed to rise to much higher temperatures than packs. Particularly things like induction rotors; they get hot enough to build up a cool-looking oxide layer.

I don't know about how things would work out overall as a balance of factors. I'd expect the Raven to benefit more than the Plaid, of course, given the visibly improved cooling on the latter. (I'm still hoping that they race the Raven first, get their best time, then race the Plaid to beat their own time).

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Are those Africa or European swallows? Asking for a friend...

...but it's the airspeed velocity of the unlaiden ones that is important.

Dan