Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BaneBeater]

View attachment 373102 Wtf. How’s this even possible.

Elon promised that Tesla would be profitable and cash flow positive for the year of 2018.

 

[Tslynk67]

Is it really that bad? I'm pondering on buying a used model S this Spring instead of a Model 3 due to the larger hatchback opening in the Model S vs the trunk opening in the Model 3, I'm worried about getting my bass cab into it.

Depends on how big your cab is - if it's a 4x10 + 1x15 then no problem in a Model S - even with the rear-seats up. Then your bass can go in the rear footwell.

However, I once had a Hartke 8x10 and that didn't really fit in anything, sounded great, looked amazing on stage, but had to get rid of it.

Note that build-quality on the Model S, from around 150k VIN onwards is really, really good, so check that out.

And of course, Tesla are always very accommodating for issues, but in my case it's taking a lot of repeat-visits. The early monopole seats are notorious for rattling, I need my middle seat, middle row replacing and that's a custom order, takes time.

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon promised that Tesla would be profitable and cash flow positive for the year of 2018.

No he didn't. He said he hoped Tesla would be profitable going forwards.

 

[tinm]

so 30,000 BEV and 70,000 PHE. (I was surprised for a moment because how this was phrased it sounded for my wet noodle brain that "sales" meant the entire sales of VW Group).

My rule: if a car has an exhaust pipe and a gas tank it doesn’t count. If and when 100% of a legacy automaker’s manufacturing output starts lacking those two items—and that automaker manages to avoid bankruptcy—then I’ll start paying attention to that automaker.

 

[printf42]

Elon promised that Tesla would be profitable and cash flow positive for the year of 2018.

That sounds familiar.

 

[Tslynk67]

We have an S, X and 3. The S is my favorite car. So smooth and solid. The 3 is like a fun go kart, and feels more like a kids toy. The X is my least favorite, because it is louder, less composed on the road, and has more rattles. Definitely get the S.

Yes! I need the X for the family, but I miss my P85 like hell, that was a fun car (but also a fairly early VIN, so a few issues)

 

[KarenRei]

No he didn't. He said he hoped Tesla would be profitable going forwards.

Specifically:

And moreover, we expect to again have positive net income and cash flow in Q4. And I believe our aspirations I think it will be for all quarters going forward. I think we can actually be positive cash flow and profitable for all quarters going forward, leaving aside quarters where we may need to do a significant repayment, for example in Q1 next year. But I think even in Q1, I think we can be approximately flat in cash flow by end of quarter.

It's weird how shorts always transform estimations into "Elon promised!"

(Okay, no, it's not really weird, that's exactly what you expect of them...)

 

[elasalle]

shorts hedging mean they will pay premium for your covered calls

 

[EVNow]

For Tesla, focus is on 2019 outlook, Deutsche Bank says
MARKETWATCH 8:01 AM ET 1/30/2019

Wall Street likely will look past a fourth-quarter profit and free cash flow to focus on Tesla Inc.'s(TSLA) outlook for the year and especially for the first quarter, analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note Wednesday ahead of company earnings. After the recent share decline "reflecting nervousness" about the company's demand and margin outlook, "we believe the bar has been somewhat lowered, and that if Tesla issues 2019 guidance in-line with Street expectations for 400k vehicle deliveries and 23-24% gross margin, there could be some relief rally," the analysts said. Tesla is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results after the close Wednesday, with analysts polled by FactSet looking for adjusted earnings of $2.20 a share on sales of $7.12 billion. That would contrast with an adjusted loss of $3.04 a share on sales of $3.29 billion in the year-ago quarter. Tesla shares have lost 13% in the past 12 months, compared with losses around 6% for the S&P 500 index.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

No he didn't. He said he hoped Tesla would be profitable going forwards.

Yeah, the definition of the word "promise" really needs to be looked at. Especially when it is associated with Elon.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

You know, this got me thinking. With all of the "Elon promised" that gets thrown around, I can honestly say that in the years I have been around this company I can not remember 1 time when I heard the words "I promise..." or "I guarantee..." come out of Elon's mouth. Plenty of "we believe" or "it is out intention" or "I think..." but never once a promise.

Dan

 

[Fact Checking]

100% Model Y production starts in G2.

Only reason: makes logical sense

Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo NY is very unlikely to host Model Y manufacturing: as @neroden pointed it out "they are not a car factory" - for a long time they resisted even hosting parts supply for Tesla service locations ...

It's a special kind of Gigafactory at the moment.

 

[Intl Professor]

Tomorrow is the deadline for nominations for this year's Nobel Peace Prize. As an emeritus professor I qualify as a nominator, you may also or as a differently qualified candidate for nomination. If you miss the deadline your nomination automatically carries over to the next year.

Start the process here if you wish. Nomination and selection of Peace Prize Laureates

This should be of particular interest to Trump supporters, since he cannot nominate himself, and for the rest of humanity concerned about global warming. Once confirmed as a nominator my top pick is Greta Thunberg. Add yours.

 

[Menifeer]

OT - NIO is up nicely today...

 

[Hock1]

Indeed, I edited it - nevertheless my calculation for the $235m earnings expectations for Q4 is correct, right?

I have not followed the various estimates that comprise the consensus, because we all know the game that they are playing. I.e., they will find a way for TESLA to miss on some metric. As you know, I am totally long-term and, as such, am inured to the BS and the manipulation. That being said, I don't know if the estimates are all GAAP or all Non-GAAP. Consensus of $235M GAAP earnings actually equates to $1.36 per share GAAP. This makes sense vis-a-vis Q3's $311M and $1.80, respectively. A consensus of $2.20 per share only makes sense if that is a Non-GAAP number, because Tesla has already stated that earnings will be below Q3. I hope this makes sense. I can imagine these Fudsters picking and choosing between GAAP and Non_GAAP numbers to facilitate the inevitable "miss" and subsequent dive of the stock price.

 

[omarsultan]

Autosteer tries to wake you by braking hard

I don't see how the could go badly....

 

[Intl Professor]

Cliff's Notes:

Cameron: "We shouldn't exit the EU, but UKIP is leaching votes from us. I've got an idea: let's promise a referendum on the UK leaving, because there's no way that'll pass."
Farage: "I dare you! Come on, the UK leaving the EU will be easy. This is going to go so great! We'll end up with a million billion pounds and a pony!"
May: "No, that'd be a dumb idea."
Voters: "Hold my beer." (52% leave / 48% remain; sound of snickering with a Russian accent in the background)
Farage: "Great, my work here is done, let me exit stage left."
Cameron: "Hold the door."
May: "Don't worry, I'll shepherd us through this dumb idea." (to EU) "We want a million billion pounds and a pony."
EU: "You get a rock."
Parliament: "A rock isn't good enough. We need better."
May: "Here's your rock back. We need at least the pony."
EU: "You get a rock."
May: (to Parliament) "Look, all I got was this rock...."
Parliament: "We want better than the rock!"
Some MPs: "Can we, like, have another vote on this whole 'leaving' thing? It's been 2 1/2 years and things have changed..."
May: "No, that'd be undemocratic. Now please vote for a third time on my rock."

Does the rock have Roger written on it?

 

[Fact Checking]

Wall Street likely will look past a fourth-quarter profit and free cash flow to focus on Tesla Inc.'s(TSLA) outlook for the year and especially for the first quarter, analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note Wednesday ahead of company earnings.

Funny how that works: all of 2018 was about how the "Tesla cash crunch" and "Tesla debt barrier" is going to cause cash flow problems, making a forced equity raise of billions of dollars or a bankwuptcy inevitable.

Now that Tesla is generating massive amounts of cash and is paying back debt it's something to "look beyond" and we should worry about future demand - while EV markets are exploding in size everywhere on the planet.

Reminder, this is how massive cash flows from operations, continuously reinvested into the company, turned Amazon into a trillion dollar company:

Note how Amazon carefully managed their net income to never be overly large, so that they can reinvest the maximum and can grow at the maximum possible speed. Over a time period of 20 years.

This is why Wall Street wants to "look beyond" cash generation.

I really hope Tesla will share some European and Chinese Model 3 order stats with us in the earnings call. To address the "concerns" about demand.

 

[AndyH]

For Tesla, focus is on 2019 outlook, Deutsche Bank says
if Tesla issues 2019 guidance in-line with Street expectations for 400k vehicle deliveries and 23-24% gross margin.

Aren't Street expactions too high? Tesla might do 400k if they roll out SR in the summer and then get Giga 3 online. But to then also achieve 23-24% gross margin seems a little steep this year.

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW., there's also a big macro event later today: the Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate, FOMC statement and press conference with the Fed chair. Depending on whether it's dovish or hawkish about 2019 rate rises it could have big effect on all the macro indices.

These events will be at 14:00-14:30 EST, during market hours, while Tesla's Q4 results will be released after the market closes on 16:00 EST.

So if I got the timestamps right there will be 1-2 hours for the market to digest any Federal Reserve news before Tesla's earnings.