Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Aren't Street expactions too high? Tesla might do 400k if they roll out SR in the summer and then get Giga 3 online. But to then also achieve 23-24% gross margin seems a little steep this year.

I think that's a pretty reasonable number, on both counts.

 

[NicoV]

You know, this got me thinking. With all of the "Elon promised" that gets thrown around, I can honestly say that in the years I have been around this company I can not remember 1 time when I heard the words "I promise..." or "I guarantee..." come out of Elon's mouth. Plenty of "we believe" or "it is out intention" or "I think..." but never once a promise.

Dan

Well, I remember the ‘there is no doubt in my mind we will reach 10K Model 3 at the end of 2018’ on a conference call.

 

[Rotte]

Is it really that bad? I'm pondering on buying a used model S this Spring instead of a Model 3 due to the larger hatchback opening in the Model S vs the trunk opening in the Model 3, I'm worried about getting my bass cab into it.

Bassist here also. I fit my bass case, amp and 2 112 Aguilar cabs in my model 3 all the time with space to spare to spare. An Ampeg refrigerator cabinet, you may be out of luck!

 

[omarsultan]

"Its the thirstiest EV I ever tried. " I guess he just invented a new word to describe the e-tron. Unfortunately its confirms what I did anticipate.

1. efficiency is bad
2. high regen rate is not usable unless you step on breaks

I am concerned that the e-tron may be more a status symbol for some people versus a good BEV that you can use like an ICE for almost all situations in life.

He was driving 110 to 120 km/h which is here in Germany really slow on an Autobahn unless you have a speed limit still high consumption.

Look at the video below what the 3 makes with 120 km/h on an autobahn. Its in German but the chart at minute: 3:20 translates in all languages.

That is my general concern with all these EVs from legacy manufacturers: they end up being barely competent EVs. They siphon sales away from Tesla but also reinforce the idea that EVs are a niche, not ready for prime time, OK as a toy, etc.

 

[Mobius484]

I think it was the nytime shorty airforce supported Neil boudet that felt on twitter that the most important statistic for a car was if it was able to hold two cellos.... gld your bass and rack fit...

 

[SOULPEDL]

...there could be some relief rally,"

Is that what we should call it, a "Relief Rally?" Is that like a Mercy *sugar*? Not that desperate here.

But I'm Optimistic. I still think Margins will be the talk for Q4 and I've set my guestimate at $3/share earnings - quite high I know. I'm most excited about announcements - like new product hints and AI. I'm good either way and just hoping Karen comes ahead on her leveraged purchases.

Good luck everyone, the rest is common sense!

 

[humbaba]

That is my general concern with all these EVs from legacy manufacturers: they end up being barely competent EVs. They siphon sales away from Tesla but also reinforce the idea that EVs are a niche, not ready for prime time, OK as a toy, etc.

I seriously doubt they will siphon any meaningful sales from Tesla. Take away from their ICE line, sure. The i-pace seems like an also-ran and the only advantage I can see for the e-tron is ride quality and noise damping. AFAICT its charging is meh, its range is meh, its performance is meh, and it is uncompetitive on autopilot. And its charge port seems surprisingly poorly thought out. And not being able to keep HVAC on while charging is... perhaps an attempt to bump the charge rate up. With such obvious flaws, the whole thing seems bungled from a project management perspective.

In short, I'd be surprised if any meaningful number of e-tron purchases were at the expense of Tesla (though a buyer who dislikes Tesla might well say that -- the better evidence will be in sales numbers).

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Well, I remember the ‘there is no doubt in my mind we will reach 10K Model 3 at the end of 2018’ on a conference call.

At the time I'm sure there was no doubt in his mind. Then things changed. This is a very fluid industry and things change daily.

Dan

 

[humbaba]

I think that's a pretty reasonable number, on both counts.

For real? 400k for 2019 assuming 50 production weeks is 10/wk* average for the entire year. That seems a bit high since production doesn't appear to be sustaining >6k yet and 10k has been often mentioned as the high water mark. And if they do start selling the M3SR then the gross margin seems high as well.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be wrong on this. But unless they have another factor in full swing early enough in the year to matter I just don't see it happening.

* sorry, wish I'd caught that obvious mistake before posting

 

[Pezpunk]

well i know the S fits a pinball machine!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Bassist here also. I fit my bass case, amp and 2 112 Aguilar cabs in my model 3 all the time with space to spare to spare. An Ampeg refrigerator cabinet, you may be out of luck!

You don't need a Bass Cab, the Model 3 comes with one already

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

View attachment 373086

Correct - 255 SP100D, 491 SP90D, 194 XP100D, 327 XP90D

And interestingly, I see there are 2 LeMuRs registered in Norway...

Yep - that's where I pull the data for my site.

 

[omarsultan]

90% chance Model Y initial production starts in Fremint.

Reasons:

1. Previous talk of Fremont being production R&D center, exporting elsewhere later.

2. More experienced production talent in Bay Area than Reno.Growth pains in Reno. Housing issues and difficulty finding talent doesn't seem ideal to begin production of Tesla's highest volume product.

3. Warehouse and reshuffling of Fremont space to allow more production capacity.

Book it

All good reasons. There are some reasons I think Reno:
1) They currently have exposure as Fremont is their sole manufacturing facility--they need a hedge against things like earthquakes and the UAW
2) Reno is not that far away--not unreasonable to transfer talent there for the short haul or just for the week and go home on weekends
3) It would seem more disruptive to start manufacturing in one location, then move to another location--would seem better to start in the place you intent to ramp
4) I think, even with the expansion, warehouse space seems tight in Fremont, which is why they grabbed the space in Livermore and expanded in Lathrop, which could also serve Reno.

My vote is Reno for the Model Y and Fremont for the Semi.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Elon promised that Tesla would be profitable and cash flow positive for the year of 2018.

Citation? I do not recall him ever saying any such thing.

EDIT: I was going to ask that this poster be banned if they couldn’t provide a citation, but see they already have been. Good work, mods!

 

[Cherry Wine]

For Tesla, focus is on 2019 outlook, Deutsche Bank says
MARKETWATCH 8:01 AM ET 1/30/2019

Wall Street likely will look past a fourth-quarter profit and free cash flow to focus on Tesla Inc.'s(TSLA) outlook for the year and especially for the first quarter, analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note Wednesday ahead of company earnings. After the recent share decline "reflecting nervousness" about the company's demand and margin outlook, "we believe the bar has been somewhat lowered, and that if Tesla issues 2019 guidance in-line with Street expectations for 400k vehicle deliveries and 23-24% gross margin, there could be some relief rally," the analysts said. Tesla is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results after the close Wednesday, with analysts polled by FactSet looking for adjusted earnings of $2.20 a share on sales of $7.12 billion. That would contrast with an adjusted loss of $3.04 a share on sales of $3.29 billion in the year-ago quarter. Tesla shares have lost 13% in the past 12 months, compared with losses around 6% for the S&P 500 index.

For real? 400k for 2019 assuming 50 production weeks is 10/wk* average for the entire year. That seems a bit high since production doesn't appear to be sustaining >6k yet and 10k has been often mentioned as the high water mark. And if they do start selling the M3SR then the gross margin seems high as well.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be wrong on this. But unless they have another factor in full swing early enough in the year to matter I just don't see it happening.

* sorry, wish I'd caught that obvious mistake before posting

The note is for 400,000 total vehicle deliveries. Assume 75,000 S/X deliveries, that leaves 325,000 Model 3 deliveries, or approximately 6,250 / week. I think that is a reasonable expectation.

 

[ZachShahan]

You've got to tweet that to Elon. Send me the link and I'll RT from CleanTechnica account.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Doesn’t work well when the people replacing the idiots.....are idiots..

Then you keep sending them up until you figure out how to vet a candidate and make an intelligent choice. At least they would only have a set amount of time to screw things up instead of sitting there decade after decade making choices only to ensure the next election outcome.

Dan

 

[DurandalAI]

Depends on how big your cab is - if it's a 4x10 + 1x15 then no problem in a Model S - even with the rear-seats up. Then your bass can go in the rear footwell.

However, I once had a Hartke 8x10 and that didn't really fit in anything, sounded great, looked amazing on stage, but had to get rid of it.

Note that build-quality on the Model S, from around 150k VIN onwards is really, really good, so check that out.

And of course, Tesla are always very accommodating for issues, but in my case it's taking a lot of repeat-visits. The early monopole seats are notorious for rattling, I need my middle seat, middle row replacing and that's a custom order, takes time.

Thanks for the input. 2x10, 1x15, and an ISP Bass Vector which is a 1x18+2x8. It's the ISP that's the SOB to get loaded up in a vehicle. It fits in my Leaf, but it's never fit in any sedan trunk I've ever seen. I usually only run with the 2x10 and 1x15 (or just the 2x10) if in a smaller venue. I only consider the ISP if I know I need a lot of on-stage sound. It's an edge case, but it does happen.

 

[JRP3]

Then you keep sending them up until you figure out how to vet a candidate and make an intelligent choice. At least they would only have a set amount of time to screw things up instead of sitting there decade after decade making choices only to ensure the next election outcome.

Dan

Not sure why people think politics is the one profession where less experience is better.

 

[Lucky_Man]

I let my wife choose what I would get for my mid life crisis: a Ducati, a Tesla or a mistress. She chose the Tesla.

Smart lady. The Tesla lasts SOOO much longer than either of the alternatives ;^)