Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DurandalAI]

Not sure why people think politics is the one profession where less experience is better.

Typically the longer one is exposed to power, the more corrupt they become. There are always exceptions, but you just have to look at the before/after net worth of career politicians to see why.

 

[ZachShahan]

Cliff's Notes:

Cameron: "We shouldn't exit the EU, but UKIP is leaching votes from us. I've got an idea: let's promise a referendum on the UK leaving, because there's no way that'll pass."
Farage: "I dare you! Come on, the UK leaving the EU will be easy. This is going to go so great! We'll end up with a million billion pounds and a pony!"
May: "No, that'd be a dumb idea."
Voters: "Hold my beer." (52% leave / 48% remain; sound of snickering with a Russian accent in the background)
Farage: "Great, my work here is done, let me exit stage left."
Cameron: "Hold the door."
May: "Don't worry, I'll shepherd us through this dumb idea." (to EU) "We want a million billion pounds and a pony."
EU: "You get a rock."
Parliament: "A rock isn't good enough. We need better."
May: "Here's your rock back. We need at least the pony."
EU: "You get a rock."
May: (to Parliament) "Look, all I got was this rock...."
Parliament: "We want better than the rock!"
Some MPs: "Can we, like, have another vote on this whole 'leaving' thing? It's been 2 1/2 years and things have changed..."
May: "No, that'd be undemocratic. Now please vote for a third time on my rock."

That is the most epic summary in the history of UK politics.

 

[Hock1]

The EPS is probably non-GAAP. The revenue still seems high though.

Agreed. Earnings have to be Non- GAAP, and I think $2.26 is a reasonable number. Revs. though are where we will "miss". These asses at $7.6-7.7B are responsible for the $7.1B consensus. I can't see it above $6.8-6.9. Hope I'm wrong. GLTA

 

[JRP3]

Typically the longer one is exposed to power, the more corrupt they become. There are always exceptions, but you just have to look at the before/after net worth of career politicians to see why.

Most people expect to make more money over time.

 

[skybluecgreen]

I have not followed the various estimates that comprise the consensus, because we all know the game that they are playing. I.e., they will find a way for TESLA to miss on some metric. As you know, I am totally long-term and, as such, am inured to the BS and the manipulation. That being said, I don't know if the estimates are all GAAP or all Non-GAAP. Consensus of $235M GAAP earnings actually equates to $1.36 per share GAAP. This makes sense vis-a-vis Q3's $311M and $1.80, respectively. A consensus of $2.20 per share only makes sense if that is a Non-GAAP number, because Tesla has already stated that earnings will be below Q3. I hope this makes sense. I can imagine these Fudsters picking and choosing between GAAP and Non_GAAP numbers to facilitate the inevitable "miss" and subsequent dive of the stock price.

The $2.20 consensus estimate that Remster32 provided on 1/10 (prior to Elon's letter) were non-GAAP so I assume that your current $2.20 is as well.

Remster32Member

#2920Remster32, Jan 10, 2019
↑
[Anyone have EPS estimatest from FactSet for Q4?]

I'm a long time lurker but I keep seeing requests for these numbers so I thought I'd help contribute.

I have access to First Call, which is an equivalent of FactSet, just run by Nasdaq. They might differ marginally due to who they include and don't include in their consensus, but with a company like Tesla the differences should be negligible.I can also see all of the estimates listed individually and the ones that are included in consensus vs. not are marked as well. If anyone wants a deeper look I can totally do that.

For TSLA Q4 from First Call:
Revenue: 7,082.2
EPS: 2.25
Free Cash Flow: 405.6

MarcusMaximus, Jan 10, 2019
EPS there based on GAAP or non-GAAP?

Remster32, Jan 10, 2019
These are non-GAAP. GAAP EPS consensus is 1.09

 

[Buckminster]

You've got to tweet that to Elon. Send me the link and I'll RT from CleanTechnica account.

Dion on Twitter

Another one that Elon just replied to:
K10 on Twitter
Analysts have been warned...

 

[EVNow]

Not sure why people think politics is the one profession where less experience is better.

They do that in corporations as well - "lets get some fresh blood" and layoff people with decades of experience.

 

[kyzhk]

Dion on Twitter

Another one that Elon just replied to:
K10 on Twitter
Analysts have been warned...

What did EM say? I think the tweet got deleted already.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Not sure why people think politics is the one profession where less experience is better.

Because this isn't about experience, it's about corruption. Seems there is a direct link between the length in office and the desire to stay there.

Dan

 

[EVNow]

Is that what we should call it, a "Relief Rally?" Is that like a Mercy *sugar*? Not that desperate here.

Personally, I can use some relief rally

Last 7 ERs have had the earnings day close of around $300.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Another forecast from some clueless trader...

Ya, me. We've seen the run ups before only to be dashed within days. But this time's different because we've all learned (not AI) that when TSLA hits around $350 or higher, it's temporary and then we kick ourselves for not cashing in a bit. So now, everyone's got some sells in at a lower price IMO. Am I wrong?

The effect of this could be a more dampened peak but with a more sustained climb anticipating coming quarters (exciting). On "Good News" I predict a peak around $335 this week. I'm also heavy on this stock (like many of us who bought up the town last week) so I'm starting my selling at $324 and will gradually let go of that bloody knife I caught several times last week. Still holding 80% long in case it never returns to $300 again. That day will occur this year IMO.

 

[Tslynk67]

Citation? I do not recall him ever saying any such thing.

EDIT: I was going to ask that this poster be banned if they couldn’t provide a citation, but see they already have been. Good work, mods!

I reported him, I suspect others did too. His postings have been continually trollish, but this was a complete untruth. Added no value to the discussions here.

 

[JRP3]

They do that in corporations as well - "lets get some fresh blood" and layoff people with decades of experience.

Not mandatory and not everyone. That's what elections are for.

 

[Richard007]

Above $300! Back to $352’s tomorrow?

 

[Nocturnal]

I get the sense that Wall Street was really expecting the ER to be bad. Hoping that it's just "ok" and we get a bump. Wondering if the slow uptick isn't others thinking the same.
Edit, well, I hope it's "amazing" but that is not gonna happen.

They do that in corporations as well - "lets get some fresh blood" and layoff people with decades of experience.

That's easy to explain. Fresh blood = lower salary

 

[JRP3]

Because this isn't about experience, it's about corruption. Seems there is a direct link between the length in office and the desire to stay there.

Dan

Elections.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Personally, I can use some relief rally

Last 7 ERs have had the earnings day close of around $300.

When you put it that way, I revise my forecast down a bit. (See, I'm data driven... really)

 

[Cherry Wine]

As you may have noticed today, IV on all calls went up. 1/25 calls went up by 4% or more (depending on the strike, between 300 & 350). on 2/15 calls, went up by 6 to 8%. On 3/15 went up by 3% to 4%.

30 day IV (at ATM) is now at 74%. It went up from 63% last week. In Q3, before the ER it went almost near 90%. So, I expect the IV to keep climbing.

View attachment 371038

@EVNow -- could you share IV values for 2/15 and 3/15 strikes on a couple of dates going back into December?

 

[ZachShahan]

I think we're squeezing up to a fresh ATH after earnings. Might take til US/China is "resolved", but I think it's coming.

Model 3 production is ramped.
Automotive is profitable.
Model Y details will be announced.
China Gigafactory is in the works.
OEMs are still years behind.

Exactly what else are we waiting on? Other than Energy, the plan seems on track.

Of course I got greedy and never got my call purchases in, but what else is new.

Well, this would not be the TMC forum without expectations of an ATH following a shareholder call.

 

[EVNow]

Not mandatory and not everyone. That's what elections are for.

Actually, doesn't happen enough in politics, which is the problem. Among all democracies, US has the highest re-election % - where just 10% turnover is a "wave" election.