Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Thanks. For everyone else here:

FactSet:

• Revenue $7.12 billion
• GAAP EPS $1.26
• Non-GAAP EPS $2.20

And the numbers for net income?

Non-GAAP EPS in Q3 was $2.90 (on $311m of income), so expectations of $2.20 correspond to a GAAP income/profit of about $235m.

(Since the number of diluted outstanding common shares did not increase substantially from Q3 to Q4 we can simply scale the EPS linearly I believe.)

 

[Intl Professor]

I've always believed it happens before that. If you have the desire put in effort to become in a position of authority over others, chances are, in my view, you are a bad person.

Some might be excused if they are interested primarily in contributing to the dialogue within a political party. Both Bloomberg and Schultz seem to be most interested in blocking what many progressives want most—guaranteed social benefits because they are too costly (mainly for the rich). Bloomberg less culpable since he stays (or more technically correct), joins the debate within a progressive movement. Incidentally, there's a Pew poll on Medicare for all which hints at a fix which will stymie Schultz: making Medicare for All with continuation of your existing insurance plan, if you want. That would permit a phase out over time to a program with 70+% improvement in overhead. Included in that should be, of course, free medical education which in the long run will be the most intractable difficulty of sane policy: the $100,000 or so increased income for doctors here compared to other industrial countries.

I'd rather pay up front for medical education rather than penalizing patients every year going forward. But that's rational, even Christian, and yet I remain a non-believer.

 

[oneday]

Thanks. For everyone else here:

FactSet:

• Revenue $7.12 billion
• GAAP EPS $1.26
• Non-GAAP EPS $2.20

My guess. Revenue will be a “miss”. I think $7 billion would be great. But there will be a “beat” on both GAAP and Non-GAAP numbers. My biggest hope, Tesla ends Q4 with more than $4 billion in cash, showing the < $1 billion in Q1 bond payments a non-issue.

Completely unrelated, the Feb.1 calls I bought last week that are currently up 70% would need a $24 move from current SP just to not lose value after today. Debating to roll to Mar1 calls or just selling and converting to shares. Not going to hold through ER.

 

[Fact Checking]

Debating to roll to Mar1 calls or just selling and converting to shares.

Any post-ER expiries worth rolling to? Most of them seem to have a ridiculously high implied volatility premium.

 

[Remster32]

That net income has to be non-GAAP, no?

Yes, non-GAAP.

 

[sunhelm]

Top 3 questions on Say that will hopefully get asked in the Q4 ER here:
Gali on Twitter

Love these questions (especially Powerwall and Solar tile ramp!) and hope we get to hear the answers.

 

[Buckminster]

Will the Internet still be accessible in the UK as of 30th March?

If our masters are benevolent towards us. We probably won't have time - toiling in the fields and all that..

Final First Call consensus before Q4 earnings

Revenue: 7,080.6
EPS (Non-GAAP): 2.20
EPS (GAAP): 1.05
Net Income (non-GAAP): 361.4
Cash Flow From Operations: 1,020.3
Free Cash Flow: 395.3

FCF looks low. I demand a recount.

 

[oneday]

Any post-ER expiries worth rolling to? Most of them seem to have a ridiculously high implied volatility premium.

I could move Deeper in the money. That’s a possibility... I got stung pretty bad holding the Jan. 18’s that we’re ITM on Thursday and expired worthless on Friday. I feel it’s more prudent to not hold any feb1 after today. I could see big moves both up or down. If it’s down, I think big money will probably push it back up next week, which is why Mar1 seems ideal.

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA jumped up by about a dollar there... I think due to the Fed's statement about interest rates. Nothing to do with TSLA.

While I am here... our precious TeslaMotorsClub .com website has "gone down" so much lately that we should not be surprised if it "goes down" again today, either as we approach the end of the trading day or some other time after that. Heartbreaking for us addicts

 

[Fact Checking]

Macro update: the Fed FOMC was released two minutes ago: dovish (green) price reaction on futures and on $TSLA as well.

Very strong dollar reaction (weakening), which suggests that at least one potential interest rate rise opportunity was removed from the Fed's 2019 calendar.

This is very bullish for market recovery, especially if the Fed chairman doesn't counteract it on the press conference.

 

[printf42]

OT
Elon tweeted this at exactly 12:00AM this morning.

Elon Musk on Twitter
tbh smh

Then responded following reply with “haha”

K10 on Twitter
No boneheaded questions
Elon Musk on Twitter
Haha

So I guess the original tweet was sent when he was reviewing submitted retail share holder questions.
Since I can see obvious short FUDs in there too.

The top question is only backed by shares worth about 1 min of TSLA trading volume, I wonder who’s doing this.

 

[EVNow]

I'm curious about the IV on 300p/290p strikes for 2/15 and 3/15, and 360c for 2/15 and 3/15. If it's not too much trouble, would love to know what the IV was for those dates and strikes in November shortly after Q3 ER, and sometime mid-December.

Thank you!

Here. May be not what you were expecting … mid-December the IV shot up because SP went high and then started dropping.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Here. May be not what you were expecting … mid-December the IV shot up because SP went high and then started dropping.

View attachment 373158

So the 2/15 options are substantially higher in IV now than in past months. Thank you!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

OT
Elon tweeted this at exactly 12:00AM this morning.

Then responded following reply with “haha”


So I guess the original tweet was sent when he was reviewing submitted retail share holder questions.
Since I can see obvious short FUDs in there too.

The top question is only backed by shares worth about 1 min of TSLA trading volume, it’s so obvious who’s doing this.
Hint, definitely not people here.

Not sure if the top question has changed in the meantime, but it looks like right now it’s the service question. I backed that one with my shares(as did several others here). Some here certainly disagree, but I want an answer.

 

[Bobfitz1]

That's easy to explain. Fresh blood = lower salary

EVNow said: ↑
They do that in corporations as well - "lets get some fresh blood" and layoff people with decades of experience."

Fresh bodies are usually less likely to speak truth to power than people with long experience. And kids out of college.

 

[Fact Checking]

Final First Call consensus before Q4 earnings

Revenue: 7,080.6
EPS (Non-GAAP): 2.20
EPS (GAAP): 1.05
Net Income (non-GAAP): 361.4
Cash Flow From Operations: 1,020.3
Free Cash Flow: 395.3

Thank you very much!

Here's a comparison table with Q3:

                                Q3             Q4 (First Call)

Revenue:                     $6,824m        $7,080m

EPS (Non-GAAP):                $2.90          $2.20
EPS (GAAP):                    $1.75          $1.05

Net income (non-GAAP):         $516m          $361m
Net income     (GAAP):         $311m          $186m (est.)
Cash flow from ops:          $1,391m        $1,020m
Free cash flow:                $881m          $395m

Note that I estimated the Net Income GAAP figure from First Call - could someone please double check my calculation, or is the GAAP Net Income consensus listed by First Call perhaps?

 

[Tslynk67]

Not sure if the top question has changed in the meantime, but it looks like right now it’s the service question. I backed that one with my shares(as did several others here). Some here certainly disagree, but I want an answer.

On one hand, I don't really want to shout out to the shorts about service issues - that's why I never talked before about my MX problems, but on the other hand I agree it needs to be resolved as Tesla move into mass market. So OK, let's roll with it.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

EVNow said: ↑
They do that in corporations as well - "lets get some fresh blood" and layoff people with decades of experience."

Fresh bodies are usually less likely to speak truth to power than people with long experience. And kids out of college.

It's not that simple.
I was once let go in order to get fresh blood, and that was the right decision for both me and the company. It's hard to decide on your own to leave golden shackles. For the company new people bring new ideas, and different approach to risk. As for myself, I've learned a lot more by changing environments I worked in... Staying for too long can be very useful, as a part of corporate memory. But also people get stale (including myself). I'm not saying this is always done right, far from it...

 

[KarenRei]

Corrections welcome.

Source	Revenue	EPS(GAAP)	EPS(Non GAAP)	Income(GAAP)	Income(Non-GAAP)	CF/ops	FCF	M3 margin
Q3 (actual)	6824,4	1,75	2,90	311,5	516,2	1391,3	881	>20%
FactSet	7120,0	1,26	2,20	~235	?	?	?	?
First Call	7080,6	1,05	2,20	~186	361,4	1020,3	395,3	?
Q4 (guidance)	?	<1,75	<2,90	?	?	?	?	20%
Q4 (actual)	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?

ED: Yeay, I got the table to work! Although I have no clue why it made a gigantic gap at the top of the post...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

On one hand, I don't really want to shout out to the shorts about service issues - that's why I never talked before about my MX problems, but on the other hand I agree it needs to be resolved as Tesla move into mass market. So OK, let's roll with it.

It needs to be said. It may cause small amount of pain short-term, but if they just say 'We're aware of the issue, and it's one of our top 3 (or 5) priorities', that's all I need to hear to feel comfortable in TSLA long term (again)