That news is so last year.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
That news is so last year.
Last week I was told by a Tesla sales agent in Chicagoland that a relatively high level of Model 3 inventory will be maintained even after 2018 has ended. Most orders will result in rather quick delivery from inventory in the most commonly requested configurations. It will be only requests for configurations not in inventory that will lead to a car being made-to-order in Fremont.
This makes sense for high volume cars like the Model 3. The ability to receive almost immediate delivery should incentivize many potential buyers, especially those whose current cars are getting old or have developed problems. Tesla is becoming a mainstream car company.
I actually think it's good that more Tesla employees could afford this car with extra discount. I think similar to them being shareholders of the company, owning a product can help them realize what it is they make and strive to make product even better and be a better ambassadors for the brand.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yeah it's pretty bad, but sloppy handling of a used vehicle purchase isn't really a strong bear case for the company.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
I got this - don't waste your precious time Mr Facts:
It helped him get to 60k+ production figures.
Troy reads this:
It is, because there's only so much of this that can happen before the brand is tarnished completely. No FUD manufacturing required.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Traditional car dealers have terrible reputations yet people keep buying cars.
And no other manufacturers ever have issues like this? I can say from experience, they do. It leads to annoyed customers, but it doesn't exactly destroy the brand. For one negative experience with Tesla, how many positive ones do you think there are? It's an unfortunate part of the human condition that we're more likely to report negative vs. positive experiences. But I don't see anything negative and unique to Tesla here, I think the way they do things is actually very refreshing.
Which would have been why you'd buy a Tesla. But if the experience is just as bad, why bother? Do you really think this behavior scales to 1m+ cars per year?
This is pretty much normal for Tesla, even for new cars. Having gone through my own purchases, and friend's purchases.
Normal based on a small and unrepresentative sample size? Sorry, that doesn't hold much weight. Be better if all experiences were positive, but it's a growing company with growing pains. But I don't think it's anything terminal.
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Not on its own, maybe, but if its part of a broader pattern of poor customer communication, it can be. This is the kind of thing @neroden has been talking about. It’s also something that I’ve been concerned about(I’m still waiting to even hear back about my flat tire that’s at Sunnymont SC, and it’s now been over 6 weeks).
It’s something they really need to figure out. They’re getting too big and these problems too ingrained.
This is not growing pains, this is nearly complete dysfunction.
But I don't want to go back and forth with you apologists all day long. There is no bear case for Tesla, please return to your regularly scheduled programming.
Below I have estimated Tesla's Q4 average US Revenue, gross profit and cash flow (in $000) for each base car option available. Revenue is on an accounting basis (so ASP + delivery fee + GHG credit sales - Deferred revenue). For each model base I have included an average take rate of options such as paint, wheels, seats etc, but included 0 take rate for EAP and FSD. Cars with EAP purchased would add c.$5k to revenue, GP and cash flow. Cars with FSD also purchased would only add c.$3k to cash flow. Obviously all model 3 options include a 100% take rate for the currently compulsory $5k premium interior. SR & LR model 3 were not available, but I have included the numbers I think they would have achieved had they been available.
These estimates use reconciliation to Tesla's 9M18 deliveries and accounts, Troy's take rate survey data, and common sense estimates for the costs of each option.
These estimates use reconciliation to Tesla's 9M18 deliveries and accounts, Troy's take rate survey data, and common sense estimates for the costs of each option.
Not an apologist, just experienced with other brands. Making out like this is a Tesla-specific issue is unfair.
What I don't understand is why they aren't systematically tracking customer communication and issues. You would think they would have some sort of ticket system to deal with ongoing problems for a customer.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Because the products are better? Again, this is a real problem but it's only solvable up to a certain level. People are fallible and as long as people are involved in the process, at any company, there will be some degree of horror stories.
I guess we forgot about the bull case from the last 7 years, no shady car dealers. Buy direct. No hassle sales.
edit - the Apple store experience for cars?
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hacer
Active Member
Um, for the actually far superior car?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Just in case you weren't aware of it yet, here's Munro's leaked cost and margin estimates for various Model 3 options and configurations, from early 2018. Most of the options price gross margin estimates are still pretty accurate IMHO.
Your margin and cash flow table - mind also posting the summary line that adds them up for Q4?
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