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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Haha, I see Ben Kallo is out with a positive note on Tesla the day after Mark Spiegel called his wife "the dumbest woman who ever got into Harvard".

Tesla Model Y production on track for 1,000 per week in mid-2020, analyst says after factory tour - Electrek

Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

I'm pretty sure Mark Spiegel doesn't have a wife! I'll betcha a signed dollar!

Oh, I see you meant Tesla analyst Ben Kallo's wife Melissa Lee! That makes Spiegel as dumb as dumb can get! He's trying to play the Trump game, make people afraid to speak out, but he doesn't understand that for that to work, people have to care about what you think! :oops:
 
Unusually tight price action this afternoon, with a 'sell-wall' in place at 360 and a 'buy-wall' supporting the SP at 359:

NASDAQ.realtime.TSLA.2019-12-12.sell-wall-at-360.png


Shortzes must be gettin' panicky buy now because if the SP closes above 360 and those margin calls go out after hours, then tomorrow morning it'll be "Well Howdy".

EDIT: well the 'push-down-to-close' attempt has begun, but shortzes haven't breeched 358 yet... Lot's riding on the closing price today, with tomorrow being weekly Options expiry day.
 
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Deutsche Bank (DB) published their takeaways from their AutoTech Conference in SF on Tuesday. Martin Viecha represented Tesla. Other OEM’s in attendance were Ford and GM.

Tesla Takeaways:

In China, Tesla is waiting for final governmental approvals so deliveries can begin. DB thinks these approvals may be related to Tesla being exempt from purchase tax. This may push deliveries to January. DB points out that the timing of deliveries could help/hurt overall margins. Tesla would not have to recognize the related costs if they don’t deliver any MIC cars, though margins would suffer if they were to deliver before year-end due to the absorption of very high fixed costs.

Tesla recently began delivering in South Korea. Tesla believes that South Korea could potentially be a bigger market than Norway due to the large subsidies. The ASP starts at roughly $27k in the country.

Tesla explained why accounts receivables has been elevated in recent quarters. It is due to a large gap in timing between vehicle delivery and cash collection from European banks. The gap in Europe is 28 days, China is 7 and US is 3. Due to the large increase of Model 3 sales in Europe this year, A/R has jumped up.

Non-Tesla Specific Takeaways:

There was a lot of buzz at previous AutoTech conferences on fully autonomous cars. This year, the conference confirmed that the tech (Level 4/5) is most likely further away. The focus in the next few years will be the quick adoption of Level 2+ products.

DB is projecting an EV share in the teens by 2025 and over 25% by 2030. They believe that the companies that attended largely share these projections.

“Tesla explained why accounts receivables has been elevated in recent quarters. It is due to a large gap in timing between vehicle delivery and cash collection from European banks. The gap in Europe is 28 days, China is 7 and US is 3. Due to the large increase of Model 3 sales in Europe this year, A/R has jumped up.”

Can someone illuminate why the delta re: Europe?

thanks
 
Must be one of those conservative jokes that loves to poke fun of California. Because according to this:

LAWYERS PER CAPITA BY STATE

New Jersey actually has more lawyers per capita than California. ;)

The version of the joke I heard was: DC has highest concentration of lawyers per capita, NJ has more toxic waste dumps (don’t know if that’s true) - because NJ got first pick.
 
For 4 consecutive days going long at the end of trading would have resulted in a profitable trade the next day. Wouldn’t that result in some buying pressure by now? Or are the manipulations still too strong?

There's probably some fear of Trump or Musk tweeting something bad in the 16 1/2 hours the market is closed.:oops:
 
For 4 consecutive days going long at the end of trading would have resulted in a profitable trade the next day. Wouldn’t that result in some buying pressure interest by now? Or are the manipulations still too strong?

h/t @Curt Renz .

Yup, showing some good resiliancy to obvious attemp to beat down the SP starting at 3 PM.

Shortzes weren't able to breech 358, and now we're back up near 359 at 3:45 PM

EDIT: Over 359 now, could also be some margin calls going out from Brokers over the last hr of trading.
 
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I'm with @ReflexFunds on this one: I think non-GF3 deliveries will be just fine in Q4 even without GF3, and Tesla is probably already highly confident in this outcome with 20 days still left in the quarter.

This means that by delivering say 1k or 2k units from GF3 in Q4 has little added Q4 value, but might as well make the difference to soundly beat Q1'2019 results - which "Q1 shock" must still be a vivid memory for Tesla higher ups. Why make Q4, an already record quarter with half a dozen of major records already, a bit better at the expense of Q1'2020 which is still somewhat of a question mark with a couple of headwinds such as the expected drop in the Netherlands and a smaller post-tax-credit drop in the U.S.?

Plus if GF3 overhead costs (fixed staff costs, running expenses plus depreciation and amortization) are say $40m per quarter and there are 1k GF3 deliveries generating $50m of revenue and $10m of gross profits, then this would materially hurt Q4 gross margins: Model 3 gross margins would drop by about 0.7%.

OTOH if they delay it to Q1 they might either recognize those expenses in Q1, where it will be absorbed by well over 10,000 GF3 deliveries if everything goes to plan, or declare it trial production costs and stick it into capex?

So I think there's multiple good reasons to delay GF3 deliveries to Q1'2020, and that this is basically a tactical call for Tesla. Also note that Tesla is apparently filling Chinese delivery centers with the new Model 3's - if there's any weakness in the end of quarter EU or U.S. deliveries push they could easily deliver 1k-2k units in the final week of Q4, on a moment's notice. We can call it a 'strategic reserve'.

This post is both wise (that delaying MIC 3 deliveries until the next quarter is a good idea for Q4 results) and also a damning example of how quarterly reporting creates perverse incentives for US corporations.
 
I just want to preempt any hypothetical negative sentiment about getting sold down below 360 today
If you look at the weekly chart, it is BEAUTIFUL

Even IF we don't close above 360 (and that seems to be the line in the sand that the manipulators would like to enforce today), we are still on a gorgeous and obvious, healthy uptrend

View attachment 487460

Salmon ladder pattern? :D
 
I find interesting that MIC M3 are showing high manufacturing quality (better than Freemont they say, and i can see Chinese proudness at work) because that would rise the interest of a large number of neighbouring countries (South Korea anyone? 21,000$ incentive) that could get a cheap MIC product with low shipment cost.

Tesla is breaking the 'Made-in-China' stereotype with the GF3-made Model 3

The Chinese have good work ethics, as long as the expertise is provided and quality control is in place, I’m sure we’ll be seeing no panel gaps like here in the US.
 
Deutsche Bank (DB) published their takeaways from their AutoTech Conference in SF on Tuesday. Martin Viecha represented Tesla. Other OEM’s in attendance were Ford and GM.

Tesla Takeaways:

In China, Tesla is waiting for final governmental approvals so deliveries can begin. DB thinks these approvals may be related to Tesla being exempt from purchase tax. This may push deliveries to January. DB points out that the timing of deliveries could help/hurt overall margins. Tesla would not have to recognize the related costs if they don’t deliver any MIC cars, though margins would suffer if they were to deliver before year-end due to the absorption of very high fixed costs.

Tesla recently began delivering in South Korea. Tesla believes that South Korea could potentially be a bigger market than Norway due to the large subsidies. The ASP starts at roughly $27k in the country.

Tesla explained why accounts receivables has been elevated in recent quarters. It is due to a large gap in timing between vehicle delivery and cash collection from European banks. The gap in Europe is 28 days, China is 7 and US is 3. Due to the large increase of Model 3 sales in Europe this year, A/R has jumped up.

Non-Tesla Specific Takeaways:

There was a lot of buzz at previous AutoTech conferences on fully autonomous cars. This year, the conference confirmed that the tech (Level 4/5) is most likely further away. The focus in the next few years will be the quick adoption of Level 2+ products.

DB is projecting an EV share in the teens by 2025 and over 25% by 2030. They believe that the companies that attended largely share these projections.

"Tesla explained why accounts receivables has been elevated in recent quarters. It is due to a large gap in timing between vehicle delivery and cash collection from European banks. The gap in Europe is 28 days, China is 7 and US is 3. Due to the large increase of Model 3 sales in Europe this year, A/R has jumped up."

Very valuable info, thanks for sharing.

For those unaware, the Account Receivable number is the current topic du jour that TSLAQ is desperately trying to convince itself is a sign of potential Fraud.

That 28 day delay in Europe is bizarre, the banks are no doubt creaming plenty of interest income from it during the 4 week processing time.
 
How about some predictions, anybody wants to volunteer? Just for fun.
1. Tim Seymour's covering PT is reached - when
2. Max SP before delivery numbers are announced.
3. Max SP the next day
4. Today's close - you have to guess a precise number (between 358 and 360)
5. Same for tomorrow.

I'm guessing we end up at 358.45. ;)

Today's Best Oracle title is awarded to @Nocturnal.

Don't miss your chance to be a winner in the remaining 4 categories. ;)
 
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