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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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not this year in The Netherlands. Sales are quite lackluster. There may be a bit of a peak at the end of the year, because the BIK rules change, but not the miracle of last year.

the Accountant posted sales numbers for Europe. Total sold last year was 111k, this year so far 44k. I hate to admit but angry Gordon had a point that Tesla’s market share (as a percentage of EVs sold) will probably lower this year than last year. In several countries there are stimuli that conveniently cut off Tesla from selling cars at the expense of cheaper cars like Zoe etc.

Once MY is produced in Europe and both the cost of shipping is reduced and the import duties no longer have to be apply, we’ll get in a more competitive position.

44k sounds about right since they received practically no cars due to q2 shut down and they just received their cars from q3. So basically total sold is on the backs of q1 deliveries. So that number will change dramatically a month from now, may even double.
 
That said, the S & X are exclusive to Fremont, and they surely deserve both better paint and better paint options as well. I suspect once Austin is operational, and Tesla can meet some of their delivery goals there... maybe they disassemble / upgrade Fremont paint shop for S3XY. But there's no way they can do that now, as it'd shut down production.

How many weeks would it take (if they worked 24/7) to install an upgraded Fremont paint shop? I'd suspect 2022 at the earliest for this.
They are upgrading the shop there but haven't heard any timelines.

I'd say, BEVs gained partly thanks to the pandemic-related lockdown. The Model 3 was the best-selling car in the UK in both April and May this year, during the lockdown, albeit with fairly low delivery numbers. The reason: turns out that being able to configure your new car and order it completely online helps a lot when the stores are closed. And then Tesla put forward some staff guidelines for contactless delivery (the last step that can't be completely done online), and voila.

This, of course, does not completely explain the ramp-up in demand for BEVs. The rest may have to do with increasing acceptance of the inherent advantages of owning a BEV, such as the low running costs, the low or null taxes and the low need for service. Aspects which may be relevant when confronted with a contraction in the economy and aggressive cost-cutting measures for businesses.
And no gas station stops. Pumps are filthy even normally. I had to fuel once for my backup generator and once on a road trip in an ICE and I wanted to burn my hands after.
 
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Is anyone else concerned about the number of finished vehicles parked all over the site?
No. They do deliveries in bunches. You generally won’t see many finished vehicles parked on their lot as end of quarter approaches.
Here in Fremont there’s a few sites with loads of vehicles parked getting prepped to ship overseas. (Batteries drained for transport; etc.
Those lots fill up towards the beginning of the quarter...Tesla does their local delivery production towards the end of the quarter.
This is why profits and delivery numbers spike towards the end of each quarter.
 
nobody mentioning the possibility...

SP index and funds aren’t going to foot the bill for hft’s and hf’s gaming the inclusion

something like,
ok, we arranged for tesla to split and do offering at will up to ~10mm shares

you will respond in kind to that gesture and take it

you will not take adv of s&p and the fund providers or you will pay the price. you’ll never see another order of ours, you’ll never see another borrow, and you’ll be run out of town. we know who you are. in case you forgot, we collectively control the largest chunk of volume on the globe, we are the market, without us you could not operate...do not f with us

tsla added, volatility returns to normal for now, then we all go about our business
 
No. They do deliveries in bunches. You generally won’t see many finished vehicles parked on their lot as end of quarter approaches.
Here in Fremont there’s a few sites with loads of vehicles parked getting prepped to ship overseas. (Batteries drained for transport; etc.
Those lots fill up towards the beginning of the quarter...Tesla does their local delivery production towards the end of the quarter.
This is why profits and delivery numbers spike towards the end of each quarter.
Plus this guy isn't complete yet. 300 cars a day capacity for deliveries.

Tesla Center: new delivery location with impressive up to 300-car a day capacity coming to China - Electrek
 
I think I spent >6 hrs today looking at charts & tickers, collecting information and generally being upset at the market. I have to deal with days like this with an offline trip to the forest or something...
Doesn't really help much honestly, once the mind gets going it's hard to stop on such day. Better go offline for the whole day or longer to try and find inner peace with things not playing out as desired so next time it isn't so disheartening.
I think there is so much anticipation here of S&P inclusion happening that I find it quite beneficial to step back and take in the possibility of it not hapenning and the stock plunging a lot more (I myself took it as almost given and have some on the line just for the inclusion). Focus on the long-term prospect and the mission. Hodl and sooner or later, things will be just fine.

Some of you have mentioned QuantumScape yesterday so I decided to check out their website for some info. They state they have a solid-state battery sollution close to mass market application. Which could mean possible tough competition for Tesla. So I checked their investor presentation (found in the press section of their site). Here are key points I've taken from it along with screenshots (dissmissed my worries at least for the mid-term).

First their projected efficiency is not such a quantum leap against Tesla's - their comparison real world vehicle models are by far not what Tesla is offering.

1.jpg


Their timeline is stretched well into 2020s with expectation of real market adoption of the products starting around 2025 in low scale
2.jpg

Lastly their planned output of their high-volume factory is "only" at 20GWh/year, which even with higher efficiency over Tesla's batteries is about even with what Tesla has available now (30GWh, but less energy-dense technology, that's why I say it's a roughly comparable size). With their expected 100kWh/vehicle(pack) that's only about 200k cars annually (est. full capacity at 2028) or 910k with expectation of another 70GWh factory they mention only in their financial summary probably as an optimistic outlook (starting production 2027)
3.jpg


It could be breakthrough technology and could go faster than expected, but in my opinion, by the time they scale their production, Tesla will have their own solid-state batteries possibly even at larger scale. They will definitely become a real player, but I don't think they're threatening tesla (in case anyone wondered)
 
Max Pain has been at $440 for most of the week.
There were 23000 Puts at this morning open with a strike of $400.
Max Pain appears to have moved slightly down to $430. (old school $2150)
There are 22400 Puts with a strike of 400 so basically none were closed yesterday.

I would think THEY really really want this above $400. I guess if THEY made enough shorting the stock they might not care. This is going to be a fun battle to watch today. The MMs might actually loss AGAIN but this time on the down side. Now that means the MMs make money just not as much as they hoped. Meanwhile the longs can just laugh this off like the last time the world ended..LOL
The stock it technically still at $2000 a share! ish. I say good job on those that took some profits to balance their portfolio.
 
Has anyone heard anything regarding increasing Gigafactory battery production recently? If Tesla plans on delivering 180-190k cars in Q4 wont battery output in Gigafactory have to increase by 40-50%?

"Tesla To Increase Battery Production with $100 Million Panasonic Investment. According to Nikkei Asian Review Tesla has received a $100 million investment from Panasonic to increase battery production at the automaker's Gigafactory 1 manufacturing facility in Sparks, Nevada.Aug 19, 2020"​


Plus, recall that during 2020H1 GF1/Sparks was sending ~3K SR+ bty packs to GF3/Shanghai. So that output can be redirected back to Fremont.

Cheers!
 
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nobody mentioning the possibility...

SP index and funds aren’t going to foot the bill for hft’s and hf’s gaming the inclusion

something like,
ok, we arranged for tesla to split and do offering at will up to ~10mm shares

you will respond in kind to that gesture and take it

you will not take adv of s&p and the fund providers or you will pay the price. you’ll never see another order of ours, you’ll never see another borrow, and you’ll be run out of town. we know who you are. in case you forgot, we collectively control the largest chunk of volume on the globe, we are the market, without us you could not operate...do not f with us

tsla added, volatility returns to normal for now, then we all go about our business

That'll work. :cool:

9gCGjDE.jpg
 
Tesla texted me this morning with the registration plate of my Model 3 which I collect next week. Forgive me for being a bit off topic for an investment forum but it will be my first Tesla and I AM VERY EXCITED :)
If you thought you were a Tesla fanatic before.....just wait.
Owning the car of the future today is absolutely an amazing experience!