Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[amolina]

Whats significant about the $385 mark?

385 is the current mid bollinger band. Check out something known as Bollinger Bands, super great at predicting short term moves. Stocks usually tend to be limited within these bands generally. Until they don't. But helps to understand the entry point really well. The image is from @Papafox yesterday.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

So @FrankSG and Rob Mauer has shown that the weighting of Tesla when included won't change the number of shares needed to be bought significantly.

EXCEPT

It depends very much on whether Tesla is included at the quarterly rebalancing or not. If Tesla is included in the rebalancing on 9/18, which we should know tonight at 5:15) it will be at roughly those 160 million shares they have shown.

If Tesla is included at any other time however this applies. Taken from document at S&P website.

"When a company is added to an index in the middle of the quarter, it takes the weight of the company that it replaced."

So instead of getting their predicted weight of 1% or so they would get whatever the company leaving the index had. Presumably a lower weighting. There are 505 stocks so the average weighting is around 0.2%. For poorly performing companies that are likely to get kicked out it it's likely even lower. The funds would now have to buy only a fifth of the shares at the present share price. So instead of 160 million shares it would be 30-35 million or so. Or less.

If I'm doing the math above wrong please correct me. It is a bit confusing.

I don't really know if this would be a desirable outcome or not for the S&P.

If it is, they could delay until after the rebalancing. Not shure if that mean waiting until after 9/18 or just wait until after the 9/4 Proforma note is sent out in which case Tuesday instead of Friday would do it. If this is done the weighting for Tesla wouldn't change until December when the next rebalancing is.

If it's not a desirable outcome to have Tesla very underweighted for the next three months they will almost certainly have to include Tesla in the announcement today.

Granted, they don't have to do anything and could make up new rules at any time.

Not advice.

 

[Compton]

Forgive my amateur question but how do all the stocks on my watch list magically stop dropping at the same time...?

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Because the entire tech sector was obviously in a frothy bubble and it's bursting. Not changing my long term outlook on Tesla in any way but a wide pullback sooner or later should have been obvious to everyone.

 

[mickificki]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1301897533237542913?s=20

 

[vikings123]

I love whenever there's sell off in tesla, people keep posting lower "i set my buy order XX price". Hope you guys get lucky but like many, many times in the past, lots of people missed out because the stock reversed hard before ever coming close to filling their order.

Nasdaq just completed its 10% drop over the 2 day span and is already recovering a bit. Tesla continues to show decent strength relative to the NASDAQ

In this specific scenario for Tesla I guess we are getting good odds to catch a falling knife with potential macro recovery next week and S&P inclusion chances. But generally speaking I think it’s fine to miss the bottom.

We knew the market was overbought and this was bound to happen, not that I expected it to fall so rapidly. Hopefully people did not actually quit their jobs to become professional traders and/or retire. The inexperienced retail investors put money in when the market was rising and very likely are pulling that money out as the market drops. Just HOLD for now, the future is very bright.

 

[amolina]

Because the entire tech sector was obviously in a frothy bubble and it's bursting. Not changing my long term outlook on Tesla in any way but a wide pullback sooner or later should have been obvious to everyone.

It was obvious, but was hoping that it comes after the Battery day. Dont like to be in the options in these times.

 

[BlackS]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1301897533237542913?s=20

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This explains it all....$TSLA is buying VW!!! j/k....Diess is probably asking Elon "Please tell me what we can do better!"

 

[BlackS]

In this specific scenario for Tesla I guess we are getting good odds to catch a falling knife with potential macro recovery next week and S&P inclusion chances. But generally speaking I think it’s fine to miss the bottom.

We knew the market was overbought and this was bound to happen, not that I expected it to fall so rapidly. Hopefully people did not actually quit their jobs to become professional traders and/or retire. The inexperienced retail investors put money in when the market was rising and very likely are pulling that money out as the market drops. Just HOLD for now, the future is very bright.

100% agreed....$TSLA probably wrecked quite a few get rich quick buyers that got in after Monday's rise.

 

[Singuy]

WTF? The system disengaged in a busy/tricky area and that confused the driver? I thought it was ok until that part.

I think generally cr miss the point of current fsd. You op in because you want to help Tesla train fully understand it will be buggy in nature. Hell if the system is so good then why even need the fleet? That's my biggest problem with the video. Generally informative for non fsd owners but need to preface it with the point vs it's causes more distractions. I mean no *sugar* sherlock, whenever we use stop sign and traffic light, we are like free test pilot engineers, not someone on the phone watching movies.

 

[humbaba]

VW One-Ups Tesla With a Revolutionary Battery Breakthrough

VW plans to scale using QuantumScape Solid State by 2025.

I think Solid State will go to iPhones etc before going into cars. ~ Cheers!!

That looks interesting, but -- unsurprisingly -- the article guides people into putting the cart before the horse through careful presentation of the facts. While it sounds very interesting and is definitely something to keep an eye on here are some key points:

• no patents have been connected with the work
• only one break through: a mysterious material
• only in a lab, only a single cell
• a "50% range increase" seems to imply a 50% gravimetric increase*
• no mention of performance (e.g., degradation, cycles, etc.)
• no mention of cost (presumably because it is so far away from being anything no one has any idea)
• specific mention of "hundreds of hurdles" remaining (no duh, only a single cell in a lab demonstrated?)

In short, this is cool and all, and hopefully it will make it from the lab into production, whether for EVs, laptops, phones or whatever. But it is also far too early to have any significance. Toyota also has well funded research into solid state, and if I recall correctly even have notable patents that have arisen from it. My point being, QuantumScope is doing an advertising run for an IPO, but they don't appear to be any closer than anyone else to achieving solid state batteries that are useful for EVs.

* if Tesla has any significant gravimetric improvement to mention on battery day this will no longer look so good. Kinda like Lucid claiming fastest production car.

 

[Electric Dream]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1301897533237542913?s=20

View attachment 584286
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Diess had an ID.3 in his luggage?
Jeeze, those VWs are smaller than I thought

 

[SOULPEDL]

That looks interesting, but -- unsurprisingly -- the article guides people into putting the cart before the horse through careful presentation of the facts. While it sounds very interesting and is definitely something to keep an eye on here are some key points:

• no patents have been connected with the work
• only one break through: a mysterious material
• only in a lab, only a single cell
• a "50% range increase" seems to imply a 50% gravimetric increase*
• no mention of performance (e.g., degradation, cycles, etc.)
• no mention of cost (presumably because it is so far away from being anything no one has any idea)
• specific mention of "hundreds of hurdles" remaining (no duh, only a single cell in a lab demonstrated?)

In short, this is cool and all, and hopefully it will make it from the lab into production, whether for EVs, laptops, phones or whatever. But it is also far too early to have any significance. Toyota also has well funded research into solid state, and if I recall correctly even have notable patents that have arisen from it. My point being, QuantumScope is doing an advertising run for an IPO, but they don't appear to be any closer than anyone else to achieving solid state batteries that are useful for EVs.

* if Tesla has any significant gravimetric improvement to mention on battery day this will no longer look so good. Kinda like Lucid claiming fastest production car.

I think it was about 3 years ago, still somewhat of a Tesla newbie, I did a search on Battery Research and about 10 were listed as potential winners. It was and is the holy grail, and likely only outdone by virus research lately. Practically every one of the technologies listed at the time were missing something - cycles, density, safety, cost... always something in the way of the perfect battery. So not holding my breath on anyone else beating Tesla at that race. If and when they do, Tesla just buys them outright. And they probably go quite willingly... who wouldn't!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I said I was done buying, but they made me do it....

 

[StealthP3D]

Diess had an ID.3 in his luggage and Musk took the opportunity to test drive the new Volkswagen vehicle on the airport runway.

I knew the new VW ID.3 was compact but who would have thought it was THAT tiny?

 

[JustSaying]

I think your example implies that market behavior could be mapped and understood in a similar manner that the physics behind landing a rocket can be. My investing performance (in terms of choosing when to enter or exit a position) increased greatly once I came to the conclusion the market is not predictable in a consistent manner, like that of a rocket landing. It has periods of chaos and is best thought of in terms of chaos theory. It lends itself to mentally surrendering to it and thinking of it in terms of unpredictable rhythms (I know that doesn't make sense, that's the point here).

How to "surrender" to it? Stop trying to rationalize it's behavior and realize it is a wild, unpredictable beast. This is not to say one cannot improve their performance. It's simply saying that performance improves when one stops trying to make rational sense of it and, instead, goes with the rhythm of the market. I believe that even if you are really good at doing that, it still is unpredictable at key times.

The longer the planned term of your investment, the less this matters.

In the short run,God only knows what the Market will do, but he (she?) ain't talking.
One thing for sure "It will fluctuate"

 

[insaneoctane]

Maybe for folks with lots of dry powder, or for a risky, potentially big play, but I think I'll pass on Quantum Scape for now. My investment feels safer in Tsla for battery tech. If I wanted to to risk it I would probably wait until after battery day which *might* help get a fire sale on Quantum Scape? QuantumScape feels a little too theoretical for me ATM

 

[BlackS]

I said I was done buying, but they made me do it....

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[TSLAopt]

View attachment 584263 So SoftBank was responsible for the latest tech rally?

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Mod: attached article deleted for copyright violation. --ggr

 

[Paul_SF]

I wonder if Diess had a $5bill check for Elon also.... /s

 

[phantasms]

Remember all those crazy option plays? Hmmm.

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