Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

It’s going to $87

 

[dl003]

Remember all those crazy option plays? Hmmm.

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He's probably admin of WSB too, slimy bastard. Gotta make that WeWork money back somehow.

 

[StealthP3D]

Maybe for folks with lots of dry powder, or for a risky, potentially big play, but I think I'll pass on Quantum Scape for now. My investment feels safer in Tsla for battery tech. If I wanted to to risk it I would probably wait until after battery day which *might* help get a fire sale on Quantum Scape? QuantumScape feels a little too theoretical for me ATM

Totally agree. It's a highly risky and speculative play. But when these work out, they tend to pay off in a big way!

 

[MP3Mike]

So @FrankSG and Rob Mauer has shown that the weighting of Tesla when included won't change the number of shares needed to be bought significantly.

EXCEPT

It depends very much on whether Tesla is included at the quarterly rebalancing or not. If Tesla is included in the rebalancing on 9/18, which we should know tonight at 5:15) it will be at roughly those 160 million shares they have shown.

If Tesla is included at any other time however this applies. Taken from document at S&P website.

"When a company is added to an index in the middle of the quarter, it takes the weight of the company that it replaced."

@ByeByeJohnny Very good find, thanks for sharing. Now we know why Tesla hasn't been added yet, and why it is very likely that they will be added with the rebalancing.

 

[Drax7]

Quantumscape has a phony ring to it, spacs are even more so.
And now bill gates is a battery expert.
The trifecta, can’t wait to get in .

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1301897533237542913?s=20

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Usually where there’s smoke there’s fire. I wouldn’t be surprised if we learn about a Tesla/VW partnership at some point in the future. This is just starting to be too much at this point. They’ve been talking each other up for months and now this “secret” meeting. I don’t see Elon ever talking to or about any other auto execs. This is very interesting. We’ll see what plays out.

 

[phantasms]

Quantumscape has a phony ring to it

After taking classes with Brian Greene and David Albert, I puke a little bit when I see the word quantum used in a name.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I knew the new VW ID.3 was compact but who would have thought it was THAT tiny?

That's one way to get the manufacturing costs down. Better-Smaller-Cheaper?

 

[dl003]

Quantumscape has a phony ring to it, spacs are even more so.
And now bill gates is a battery expert.
The trifecta, can’t wait to get in .

Yeah, what's with Chamath being the chairman of SPCE and JB getting involved in this?

 

[BlackS]

On Tuesday...i said 'never thought id be so happy to see $450...' Today...Im saying 'I never thought id be so happy to see $400'

 

[UkNorthampton]

I feel like @Artful Dodger has me on his ignore list, but this is the 2nd post in a few days where he is factually incorrect about how the S&P 500's weighting works.

He suggests that the lower TSLA's stock price, the less TSLA index funds have to buy, and the higher TSLA's stock price goes, the more TSLA index funds have to buy. In dollar value, this is true, but the number of shares S&P 500 index funds have to buy does not change as TSLA's stock price goes up or down. As @generalenthu points out, Rob Maurer discussed this in his podcast on the topic, and I also discussed this in my blog post on the topic.

The S&P 500's quarterly rebalancing is not to account for changes to market caps of companies in the index, it is to account for changes to the public floats of companies in the index. This is how I explained it in my blog post:

I'm very behind on reading - but Artful's post included "I think that's one of the motivations for the big push down we're seeing right now. Every hundredth's of a point off of TSLA's weight means a few billion $$ of TSLA that don't need to be purchased by Index Funds by Sep 18th."

I can't speak for Artful, but Artful didn't say that the S&P indexers were the manipulators, just the ones who would be doing buying and arguably HODLing. Reducing S&P Indexers buying might be useful to bad actors. Could it be big oil's (+ coal/gas/incumbent electricity, cars, aerospace, nation states, banks) paid for helpers?

And the objective? To limit legitimacy, sow Fear Uncertainty and Doubt, possibly put off inclusion in S&P500 (probably too late to affect decision). Always to make Tesla seem risky.

It reminded me of some of the late great Jack Rickard's opinions:-
The Tesla Conspiracy... or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? - EVTV Motor Verks
"Let’s take a look at the awl bidness. Currently we are at 100 million barrels of oil used each day worldwide – 20 million here in the U.S. At $55 per barrel, that’s about $5.5 billion per day. That’s another $2 TRILLION world market business. As the percentage of all automobiles that are electric grows, the demand for oil will diminish. Fully 50% of all oil goes to road transport. That is $2.75 billion per day. And for every day that future is delayed, is another $2.75 billion. It would be a $2.75 billion win if the adoption of the electric car could be forestalled for ONE DAY. The incremental growth of the automotive market is as I stated, inevitable and unstoppable. But for every day it is delayed, there are BILLIONS of dollars at stake. Literally the clock is running at $1,909,722 per minute on just that part of oil used by automobiles."

 

[Todd Burch]

Don't want to speak too soon but it looks like things are reversing, both at the macro level and with TSLA.

 

[woodisgood]

Don't want to speak too soon but it looks like things are reversing, both at the macro level and with TSLA.

Maybe. It dead-catted yesterday (sorry @Krugerrand ).

 

[Sofie]

On Tuesday...i said 'never thought id be so happy to see $450...' Today...Im saying 'I never thought id be so happy to see $400'

I don’t watch. But who needs to when I can go on TMC at work and you all keep me updated on the specs all day! Slightly less stressful, I’ll admit, because words in black and white are much less heart dropping than red and green lines all over the place and the background of FUD on my brokers news headlines.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I wonder if Diess had a $5bill check for Elon also.... /s

Who knows... Maybe it was a battery sales meeting, or exploring technology sharing as in Tesla Patents or charging infrastructure?

Sounds crazy when you think of competition in the usual sense, but not so much when the mission is to build more EVs and it doesn't matter who does it. This type of strategy probably doesn't bode well on Wall Street, but I'm good with it. The key is that it has to be competitive or some will drop out which is not the best possible outcome. Tesla is too far ahead to make it fair in all markets. Helping VW could serve useful. And the synergy even helps the BEV industry as a whole to give folks some better choices.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Usually where there’s smoke there’s fire. I wouldn’t be surprised if we learn about a Tesla/VW partnership at some point in the future. This is just starting to be too much at this point. They’ve been talking each other up for months and now this “secret” meeting. I don’t see Elon ever talking to or about any other auto execs. This is very interesting. We’ll see what plays out.

Agree. Elon's tweet from July comes to mind:
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
Jul 28

Replying to
@Teslarati
Tesla is open to licensing software and supplying powertrains & batteries. We’re just trying to accelerate sustainable energy, not crush competitors!
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1288265150928125952?s=20

 

[Todd Burch]

TSLA's pushing back up faster than macros...perhaps people wanting to be positioned in case spoon announcement comes after market close.

 

[bkp_duke]

Who knows... Maybe it was a battery sales meeting, or exploring technology sharing as in Tesla Patents or charging infrastructure?

Sounds crazy when you think of competition in the usual sense, but not so much when the mission is to build more EVs and it doesn't matter who does it. This type of strategy probably doesn't bode well on Wall Street, but I'm good with it. The key is that it has to be competitive or some will drop out which is not the best possible outcome. Tesla is too far ahead to make it fair in all markets. Helping VW could serve useful. And the synergy even helps the BEV industry as a whole to give folks some better choices.

I so would love to see Tesla buy VW. (wishful thinking)

Elon: "Here's a check."
Diess: "Great, looks like you're the new boss."
Elon: "Awesome. Let's get cracking. How soon can we phase out that ICE crap?"

 

[setipoo]

Awesome fire sale today. Couldn't resist jumping in at $379. This temporary crash/correction produces a climate of fear, but it is an excellent rare opportunity to pick up this quality stock for a bargain.

"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett, The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America

 

[Bet TSLA]

For those looking at QuantumScape, you might want to look at @KarenRei's take: https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1301912265902501888