Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Apologies to @Artful Dodger - I was way behind on the thread when I saw @CorneliusXX 's post and did not know you had demolished it so well already. His post was so bad I immediately hit reply which trying to catch up on the thread. Truth is I work for a living and have a life so if I always waited to catch up before replying to something I would never be able to reply. While your post had everything necessary for @CorneliusXX to understand is error, he doesn't get it so I'm giving it another go:

Points in time reference are NOT arbitrary. You happened to choose a point in time that was basically the end of a very long range-bound trading period filled with many significant but underappreciated events and shortly before a number of new significant events. Corporate events such as earnings, new products, acquisitions, patents, new factories coming on line etc. are a thing which is why time reference points are not arbitrary.

I think we can all agree that market prices will fluctuate, even doubling or halving over short periods of time. The question is really whether those fluctuations represent mispricing or not. On that matter you chose to say:

Your analysis above assumes that the price was fairly valued 12 months ago because (you think) Tesla increased in value only 3 to 4 times but the stock price grew much more so you argued that the stock must be mispriced. You were clearly arguing for a massively overpriced stock. Many probably could agree with a much smaller level of overpricing (myself included) but very few on this board could or should agree with your view of massive overpricing. Most of us think TSLA has been dramatically under priced for a very long time and that's why we disagree with you.

I made no claim to whether the stock was mispriced one way or another, only that it is difficult to believe the fundamental value of the company moved the same amount as the stock price over the last year. My argument is that sentiment can drive the stock price wildly in the short term (as seen in the last year) and that should be considered. Regardless of whether it was mispriced last year - the market decided it was worth 10x more from one year to another when it's a hard argument that the fundamentals of the company changed 10x within that same 1 year. If it was wildly undervalued last year due to market sentiment it can be wildly undervalued again due to sentiment. The only reason I used the last year is because it is the most recent contrast between movements in stock price and moves in fundamental valuation. I could have used the prior 5 years and said Tesla 10x revenue while the stock price remained flat. Either case works for the comment on sentiment.

Sadly my comment on the impacts of sentiment seem to have been morphed in misprinting arguments. Congrats on demolishing an argument I didn't make.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I made no claim to whether the stock was mispriced one way or another, only that it is difficult to believe the fundamental value of the company moved the same amount as the stock price over the last year.... Congrats on demolishing an argument I didn't make.

Well, nobody has ever claimed that the fundamental value of Tesla has increased by the same amount as the stock price over the last year. So... congrats on demolishing an argument made by nobody anywhere.

The notion that a stock can be mispriced, often over a long period of time, is also not something anybody is arguing against. So just who is it you are talking to? Yourself?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Well, nobody has ever claimed that the fundamental value of Tesla has increased by the same amount as the stock price over the last year. So... congrats on demolishing an argument made by nobody anywhere.

The notion that a stock can be mispriced, often over a long period of time, is also not something anybody is arguing against. So just who is it you are talking to? Yourself?

 

[Joesantelli]

I hate to be the guy but I know atleast a couple other will be thinking the same ...

LOLOL I wonder if at 5:15 PM we get some s&p inclusion news ???


has s&p ever done a announcement on a holiday before

 

[Cobbler]

I really believe that S&P announcement WILL happen any hour/day/....soon before Battery Day. Be patient!
Elon is way too silent on Twitter if S&P decided to ignore $TSLA. All those ambigious tweets....Elon knows addition is coming!

We're now in the eye of the storm where it's calm and peaceful.... In this phase, the mouse decides to wear a helmet to make the same mistake again at the trap...

My conviction: $TSLA will hit ATH above $600 this month!

If not, Elon will redefine on Twitter the meaning of S&P like he did with SEC

(Disclaimer: I read way too much into Elon's tweets )

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I really believe that S&P announcement WILL happen any hour/day/....soon before Battery Day. Be patient!
Elon is way too silent on Twitter if S&P decided to ignore $TSLA. All those ambigious tweets....Elon knows addition is coming!

We're now in the eye of the storm where it's calm and peaceful.... In this phase, the mouse decides to wear a helmet to make the same mistake again at the trap...

My conviction: $TSLA will hit ATH above $600 this month!

If not, Elon will redefine on Twitter the meaning of S&P like he did with SEC

(Disclaimer: I read way too much into Elon's tweets )

Not only has he not tweeted about it, he hasn’t even liked one of the thousands of tweets about S&P snubbing TSLA. Very out of character for Elon.

 

[BlackS]

$TSLA SP does the exact opposite of what we expect....Haven't we learned that already?

 

[hobbes]

They haven't, and it likely means there is enough US/Canada demand to meet current production.

They have said it will not ship but only produce at GF Berlin when it is up and running. Last weeks rumor of a batch of Ys coming to Europe likely for testing/service training/homologation made me think about this again but so far that is the official statement. I´ll add a source when I found it..

EDIT: here you go: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1248132730614939653?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Q: When do you deliver model y in Switzerland?
A (Elon): In about a year. Would come from Giga Berlin.

Elon Musk links Tesla Model Y release in Europe to Gigafactory Berlin - Electrek

 

[jerry33]

They have said it will not ship but only produce at GF Berlin when it is up and running. Last weeks rumor of a batch of Ys coming to Europe likely for testing/service training/homologation made me think about this again but so far that is the official statement. I´ll add a source when I found it..

I recall reading that too. No wonder the Germans are working so hard to get the factory completed.

 

[dl003]

Hello, Mr. @Krugerrand? Yes, these guys up here ^

 

[wipster]

Hello, Mr. @Krugerrand? Yes, these guys up here ^

I don't think there is a Mr. Kruggerand...

 

[gabeincal]

Announcing s&p today would make sure that speculators who exited their position AH Friday would be screwed. It would make it even sweeter as it would likely reduce speculation with market events going forward. We all know what happened with the split...

 

[dw4ngg]

Announcing s&p today would make sure that speculators who exited their position AH Friday would be screwed. It would make it even sweeter as it would likely reduce speculation with market events going forward. We all know what happened with the split...

Is there any precedence announcing on Labor Day?

 

[Singuy]

Guys, don't hold your breath. It will come at a random time and during some random quarter. FB's announcement was 3qs after they qualified. Amazons was a full quarter after they qualified. I

 

[Lycanthrope]

$TSLA closed around $394 in Germany and had a day high above $395 - hardly a sell-off...

 

[Kalani]

To me, this makes VW look like a little child looking to his big brother for approval.

Diess always recognised Tesla's leadership in EV technology, but he shares the view that the future must be all-electric.

 

[printf42]

Diess to Elon: "This [ID.3] is a mainstream car. Not a race machine."

Elon: “How big battery does it have?”
Diess: “up to 83kwh”
Elon: “Then why it still sucks?”
Diess: “It’s designed to be so.”
Elon: “For a car designed to suck, this is not that bad.”

 

[johnm6875]

Warning, this is naive musing regarding the S&P inclusion.

If the $5B offering has anything to do with inclusion (trying to "play nice" with the Committee) I think it is too small an amount to have a significant impact controlling the SP during the expected purchase rush. But, if the Committee establishes a new rule allowing the inclusion over a period of time, say 8.5% per month for a year, then it could.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Since S&P can do whatever they want in terms of the terms of inclusion. Why not just announce Tesla now, but state the index funds have until next quarters rebalancing to acquire the necessary funds? I can't be the only one that's thought this is the route to go to please everyone

Gives them 3 months to buy at a much slower pace and ease a sharp spike in the share price. Seems to solve a lot of the issues.

 

[Gwgan]

Panasonic exec confirms Tesla Gigafactory 1 expansion and timeline