Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

Twitter
S 3 X Y. C A R S
The most work-intensive joke ever!

 

[EnergyMax]

View attachment 591108

I'm assuming the 1 year delay is due to the virus? Frustrating for it to slip a whole year in only a year.

Probably not covid related delay. Rather related to challenges of getting the 4680 pilot line functional.

 

[dakh]

IV goes up on big moves - Up or Down - Don't expect IV to drop tomorrow.

I looked but haven't found any way to see historical data on IV, but my impression was that usually it goes up before an event that can move the price a lot, and drops right after.

 

[22522]

On classic cells, the tabs were additional pieces welded to the electrodes. These new cell electrodes have their edges laser cut then folded over as the cell is wound. So each shingle is really part of the edge of a continuous electrode, not a separate or discontinuous piece.

Isn't tabless what happens when you put a roll of velum in a tube that is not exactly rolled squarely and you bend the edges of the sheet in towards the middle? If you have enough margin/offset on the separator it will be fine.

 

[lafrisbee]

If the Kato Road pilot plant will have a 10 GWh capacity that will be reached in about a year, what will they use all those batteries for? They can't all be used for Tesla Model S Plaid right? So something does not add up!

What do you guys think? How many KWh will a Model S Plaid batterypack have in it? Will they announce some other models with the new battery within the next year? Plaid Model X and Model 3/Y?

Semi

 

[powertoold]

Tesla is planning to ramp from essentially 0GWh to 100GWh per year of cell manufacturing in 18 months? What kind of witchcraft is this?

 

[MABMAB]

The big bull thesis confirmed.
Plaid S perfect to up the ante, bluffs will be called.
Capacity questions sorta answered, execution needed now.
My long standing concern about number of batteries needed assuaged some.
Trevor Milton bias crept in some, how much was musk promoting things that don't exist yet?

 

[Sanny]

I think analysts learned a lot about Tesla in the last couple of years. And today's event is very easy to put a price tag on - plug in a 3 TW number into your 2030 models, calculate discounted cash flow and here's your price tag. I expect to see upgrades and big buyers reaction faster this time.
Another easy way to look at the things in perspective - Tesla plans to have 3/20=15% of the whole new energy market by 2030.

 

[MABMAB]

Very good post. One correction, battery plants are 200 gwh per year not 20. A single line will be 20.

Username checks out.

Thanks for the Q?A part of things, thats when I had to sit down for dinner

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 591108

I'm assuming the 1 year delay is due to the virus? Frustrating for it to slip a whole year in only a year.

I think the delay is due to wanting to beat Lucid in every way. I don't think increase in range was on the table, just increase in performance using a larger battery pack. This was a tweet from Feb

Comment:

The Plaid S is probably gonna hit 500 miles of range (unless you actually drive it like it's got Plaid mode as Elon has already stated that it will have a battery pack larger than 100kWh. That's my guess at least!

Elon:

"There’s a tough performance vs range tradeoff. Plaid has absurd performance, while holding range roughly constant."

Then they smack you with 520+ range WTF!

 

[Boomer19]

I just realized something else. In their 5 components to cost saving none of them were "we are making it ourselves so we don't have to pay someone else's profit margin."

That's got to count for at least 10% no?

Edit: the way Elon talked about handling, he must have driven a prototype with these.

And I feel like the fact someone was able to take a picture and leak the cell implies there are a lot more people on that factory floor area than they are letting on.

I think they really downplayed their success here. Like I think when they say they have to work out stuff on the anode it's not a "if doesn't work" its a "we know we can kick out a little faster than this"

drew mentioned 1000s of cells and kilometers of electrodes

so that may equate to some of them being ‘equipment tested’

 

[mickle]

CT isn't due until late 21, so its likely Plaid will be out first.

If Plaid Model S is using all 5 of the technologies mentioned in todays presentation to increase its range, it means the Plaid model S will be an all new design using the new casts and structural batteries - so its not just the new battery cell it is waiting on but the new model S production line changes (cast machines) as well.

With respect to casting, does anyone know how difficult it might be for them to just swap out the molds on these giant machines? For example, could they cast model S parts for a day or two and then switch back to model Y for the rest of the month?

 

[elasalle]

30-40% increase in deliveries
.. expectations will be base lined in 10 days

buying the dip

market is short sighted and can’t see beyond 1 year

 

[mblakele]

In Asian trade, shares of Panasonic & LG Chem are falling following the Tesla announcement.

People who actually pay attention to battery industry know exactly what happened today.

Is that a wise reaction by the market, any more than TSLA dropping AH?

Throughout the presentation, Musk emphasized that Tesla wants help with its mission. That was partly aimed at recruiting, but definitely at other manufacturers too. Musk also touched on opening Tesla's patents. So I'd think they're working with Panasonic and other battery makers to license the new technologies we heard about today, and on very generous terms.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla basically said that there is so much demand for their products that they need to massively increase the world's battery supply and have all kinds of innovations to make that happen quickly and cheaply. Yet there are people who hear that and decide to sell TSLA. Crazy.

 

[jpsgoneev]

The only reason the SP is down is because of a lack of understanding.

Yes, and many short term’ers that need/want instant gratification.

Product of the times, perhaps? Financial ADD?

 

[Motor Mouth]

30-40% increase in deliveries
.. expectations will be base lined in 10 days

buying the dip

There's a stealth aspect to this BD presentation. The build up. The focus on (broadly stated) infrastructure and future manufacturing/production/market share gains. It's almost like giving anyone who cares to unpack the collective meaning of the information a 10 day head start. There will be blood in the streets tomorrow, but only if you sell. Buyers will be the kings of the future. Not sure whether to give Elon and crew credit for this foresight or just appreciate that it's just going to be the way it works out. We truly have seen the future.

 

[johnm6875]

One of the Li circles is approximately where Piedmont’s Lithium Project is in North Carolina,

 

[powertoold]

The SP going down is partly Tesla’s fault. They tend to have these presentations 1-2 years before the tech has fully developed. They kinda need to sandbag their tech innovations as well.

 

[lafrisbee]

Us true ants think different, and some humans have quit reading (blocked) us. But then I have blocked some too.
And I often try to give an ant's view to help those with fewer legs understand the world...
First about Model S with Plaid not being driven on stage...
If I was doing a redo of the Model S Plaid I would not be able to bring a finished product on stage today either... So those hoping for a redo are likely going to get a very different looking Model S in 15 months.

But my big take on the information provided at Battery Day was,
"We got nothing yet. But in one, no two, no three years, Yeah Three years we will be ruling the world."
"Batteries will be free in 3 years."
"Batteries will only need to be charged once every million miles."
And the most amazing of all...
"Batteries will be invisible because they will be the frame of the car."

In all seriousness I was gobsmacked after a couple of the reveals about battery improvements. And then it all started going terrible wrong when they started talking about how they don't have anything finalized. EVERY single improvement was represented as "almost."
Too close to Nikola's Mr Milton.

Now, was this Elon being too cute about worrying about "osborning" (anyone else getting tired of hearing someone explain the osbourne effect?), and pushing the timeline out there way past it will be? I hope so, but on wednesday I don't expect a warm and fuzzy day. I suspect Investors won't sell, but the number of shares in the hands of traders is huge, and those shares are going to get dumped.
I also expect 150,000+ in deliveries for Q3 to be the stimulus to bring us back to $430. For a couple of weeks it is going to smell.