Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

So much changed on 22 September.

What didn’t change is that the world needs 20 TWh of yearly battery production capacity to get rid of fossil fuels.

What did change is that we no longer need 133 factories the size of a completed GF1 in Nevada to accomplish that. We only need 12. Totally doable.

So much changed on 22 September that we should call it National Battery Day from now on.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Ya. Despite being the biggest player in fighting climate change, Elon somehow has become a pretty disliked figure in the liberal community. A combination of his wealth, the products being associated wealth and the media not helping illustrate the massive disparity between Tesla and every other car maker in the US has made Tesla a swear word in the wrong crowd.

People are blinded by their ideologies.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So much changed on 22 September that we should call it National Battery Day from now on.

That's way too close to Oktoberfest, can't cram so much drinking into such a tight window every year. I was hoping we could just stick with April 20th?

 

[9837264723849]

From Bloomberg:

View attachment 592209

This follows that https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1174751275637862400

 

[woodisgood]

So much changed on 22 September.

What didn’t change is that the world needs 20 TWh of yearly battery production capacity to get rid of fossil fuels.

What did change is that we no longer need 133 factories the size of a completed GF1 in Nevada to accomplish that. We only need 12. Totally doable.

So much changed on 22 September that we should call it National Battery Day from now on.

It seriously will be the day ICE died. I don't foresee another date being clearly as significant, though I bet there will be efforts by politicians and auto companies to steal the limelight in say, 2025: "Ford declares the combustion engine era officially over in grand announcement."

 

[aronth5]

A lot of disbelief on the video from people who seem to know their stuff.

I tend to believe the Tesla presentation purely on their ability to think creatively and invent and to look at every part of the whole chain.

I don't think disbelief is the right word. In general they were fairly positive overall especially for the downstream innovations battery day discussed.
What I heard were appropriate questions related to Tesla's claims related to the supply chain components and upstream in general. Does anyone believe that 100% of the innovations Tesla discussed will all come to fruition? Clearly no so to appropriate challenge parts of the presentation was certainly expected.

 

[mrmage]

Yeah, it was one of my musings too, why not licence this instead of continuing to buy the 2170's they do now, get everyone producing them.

Because of the investment for other battery OEMs to do so. Tesla invests like a brash startup. Existing OEMs, not so much.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Because of the investment for other battery OEMs to do so. Tesla invests like a brash startup. Existing OEMs, not so much.

Then they will suffer the consequences.

It's dog eat dog out there...

 

[Drax7]

What's up with Newsom's press conference banning ICE vehicles yesterday. He never once mentioned Tesla while throwing praise at Ford for being the industry leader in EV developement?

Newsom must be on the take from ford, follow the money

 

[woodisgood]

As I scroll through my watchlist, TSLA’s chart looks mighty interesting compared to the majority of tech and green energy, which are essentially mirroring Nasdaq with a straight upward slope.

 

[bkp_duke]

To some extent, but really the problem pre-dates that by a long way. The constant media FUD had a lot of people pre-disposed to just assume evil intent.

As previously said, I was simply adding another bullet point to the list that the other poster had already made (which I believe is accurate).

 

[Papafox]

We're in the 7th inning of the final game of the week, sports fans, and the market makers have succeeded in keeping TSLA between 400 and 405, which is this Friday's sweet spot for them. Unfortunately for them, the NASDAQ keeps climbing, and at some point if the climb continues the cap will fail and we're run higher into the close. OTOH, a dip of the NASDAQ late in the day would allow a dip in TSLA, but I think it would remain above 400 because there are too many open puts with 400 strike to let it fall much below. Trying to order a hot dog and a beer for the remainder of the game.

 

[insaneoctane]

I am trying to reconcile the above with my vision of the Prudent Business. Given an acceptable return, be it ROI, ROA, ROC or whatever matters when making one’s go/no go decisions, that a firm would turn down an opportunity to its rivals because Tesla might cannibalize them down the road strikes me as nigh inconceivable. I think that is even more the case because if we take that thought process one further step, then our Prudent Business would have to consider its rival, instead, to be bearing such risk...and were that to come to pass, then not only would our PB have lost the opportunity of having gained said Return, but now would have Tesla as a rival?

Is there something wrong with my view? It’s 0330 here so maybe I shouldn’t be signing or not signing any contracts.....

If your company does not have some secret sauce, then you are a commodity. If you have said SS, then you don't want to share it with a company that will just learn from you, copy you, improve on you and replace you. Resistance is futile!

 

[Lycanthrope]

We're in the 7th inning of the final game of the week, sports fans, and the market makers have succeeded in keeping TSLA between 400 and 405, which is this Friday's sweet spot for them. Unfortunately for them, the NASDAQ keeps climbing, and at some point if the climb continues the cap will fail and we're run higher into the close. OTOH, a dip of the NASDAQ late in the day would allow a dip in TSLA, but I think it would remain above 400 because there are too many open puts with 400 strike to let it fall much below. Trying to order a hot dog and a beer for the remainder of the game.

Indeed, a dangerous game they play. Monday FOMO might kick-in, combined with P&D speculation...

 

[UkNorthampton]

I don't think disbelief is the right word. In general they were fairly positive overall especially for the downstream innovations battery day discussed.
What I heard were appropriate questions related to Tesla's claims related to the supply chain components and upstream in general. Does anyone believe that 100% of the innovations Tesla discussed will all come to fruition? Clearly no so to appropriate challenge parts of the presentation was certainly expected.

"Does anyone believe that 100% of the innovations Tesla discussed will all come to fruition?"

Yes, I do. Everything targeted (apart from FSD, incredibly hard) has been done as far as I'm aware. Some dates missed, but predictions from many years ago hit too.

FSD is a unique challenge.

The rest is physical, chemical, engineering. It wasn't just Elon who was confident, so was Drew. They've been working on this for years.

They'll do as much Nickel as they can, fill it in with Iron Phosphate. Dry, larger cells, tabless works for both.

The mining, getting raw materials, pure silicon are the biggest area of disagreement and I'm usually a cynic. Elon/Tesla persuaded me.

 

[lafrisbee]

Did____________ announce anything? (asking for a friend)


~~~Tell your friend that is why the Resources Angle thread exists and is why the Investor Thread is TRIED, by Moderators, to keep clear of these statements, questions and other such info

But you knew that already~~~~

 

[elasalle]

When Model 3 was announced all Tesla had was design and plan.
With Battery Day, they have a running pilot line. With the Batteries, I think they are at a stage where compared to M3, Tesla employees were riding the initial production models.
So Batteries are gonna come a lot faster than what people think. ~cheers!!

happy to see SP ~ 400 after such a chaotic week. Next week should get interesting

 

[Criscmt]

MMs and price action in TSLA compared to other stocks

Today the price has been very close to $400. That got me into considering the MM manipulation as the driving factor.

But the side of that likes to question my hunch/beliefs got me into looking at the price action of other tech companies, AAPL, NFLX, FB, among others.
Even their price is similarly relatively stable after moving by some percentage since opening. And in many cases they are close to numbers with last digits close to "5" or "0".

1. Should the MM manipulation be seen similarly as a factor with these other stocks?
2. If not, what makes the case for TSLA being special with MMs?
3. Or, is there a case that the MM manipulation is not as much a factor, except at exceptional times?

 

[humbaba]

MMs and price action in TSLA compared to other stocks

Today the price has been very close to $400. That got me into considering the MM manipulation as the driving factor.

But the side of that likes to question my hunch/beliefs got me into looking at the price action of other tech companies, AAPL, NFLX, FB, among others.
Even their price is similarly relatively stable after moving by some percentage since opening. And in many cases they are close to numbers with last digits close to "5" or "0".

1. Should the MM manipulation be seen similarly as a factor with these other stocks?
2. If not, what makes the case for TSLA being special with MMs?
3. Or, is there a case that the MM manipulation is not as much a factor, except at exceptional times?

Looking at AAPL I'm seeing a distinct upward trend that aligns with NASDAQ. While TSLA is not completely level it lacks the distinct upward trend for the afternoon.

edit: AAPL may have peaked since hitting $112. But it is interesting to note in that light that AAPL max pain is listed as $111.25...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Maybe inclusion will be announced this afternoon? You never know!