Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

Thanks Elon. I have been arguing about this on Twitter

https://twitter.com/s_padival/status/1309055897919016962?s=21
View attachment 592688

Further, I don’t think suppliers will switch over to the new format. It just doesn’t make business sense. Pana only recently started making a profit on their multi billion $ Giga 1 investment. Why would they spend capex now only to see Tesla making all of their own cells in a couple of years time.

Voicing this because I think it is important for investors to set their expectations clearly. Otherwise, I would never discuss these things in public and be seen as a Debbie Downer.

You nailed it.

 

[MC3OZ]

Further, I don’t think suppliers will switch over to the new format. It just doesn’t make business sense. Pana only recently started making a profit on their multi billion $ Giga 1 investment. Why would they spend capex now only to see Tesla making all of their own cells in a couple of years time.

One very big reason why I think suppliers will be very keen to embrace tab-less 4680 is that every carmaker/energy storage battery maker will want them.

Every EV maker will eventually go for castings with a structural pack, these innovations are too big to ignore.

In fact I foresee a shortage of casting machines, and that may be one reason for a delay on the Plaid Model S.

What is more interesting is if Tesla will eventually share DBE and other elements of production process with other battery makers.
I think they want to fully ramp and validate DBE before even considering that.....
Licensing the technology and selling equipment to other battery makers would be a handy income stream, on the other hand keeping a definite market advantage a bit longer makes sense...

Looking at it from the point of view of Panasonic, CATL, LG, etc, they definitely want to know what Tesla is doing and how it works, they want to import and acquire any innovation that keeps them relevant. Yes they also want to make money, so any supply contract they negotiate with Tesla has to do that. I think Tesla is happy to lock in long term supply contracts for some portion of the batteries they need.

 

[Singuy]

Thanks Elon. I have been arguing about this on Twitter

https://twitter.com/s_padival/status/1309055897919016962?s=21
View attachment 592688

Further, I don’t think suppliers will switch over to the new format. It just doesn’t make business sense. Pana only recently started making a profit on their multi billion $ Giga 1 investment. Why would they spend capex now only to see Tesla making all of their own cells in a couple of years time.

Voicing this because I think it is important for investors to set their expectations clearly. Otherwise, I would never discuss these things in public and be seen as a Debbie Downer.

So is cell to structure going to be done with supplier cells? Obviously he list the Model Y on this slide being batteries from panasonic from his recent tweet, but he also alluded to cell to structure for Berlin's Model Y so wtf. His tweets man, so confusing.

 

[SPadival]

So is cell to structure going to be done with supplier cells? Obviously he list the Model Y on this slide being batteries from panasonic from his recent tweet, but he also alluded to cell to structure for Berlin's Model Y so wtf. His tweets man, so confusing.

Disclaimer: This is just my humble opinion

* The first 4680 cells from the Kato road line will go to the Semi (100% confidence)
* Then any remaining capacity will go to Cybertruck & Plaid Model S (50/50 confidence)
* Berlin Model Y gets its own line in late 2021
* Fremont X,3,Y & Austin Y continue to get Giga 1 Pana 2170 cells until Tesla ramps up. Probably in 2022. My Twitter friend Louis tells me Pana contract expires in June 2023
* Standard Range+ Model 3 and Ys in EU, China, Hong Kong, Australia & China will be CATL supplied Lithium Iron Phosphate prismatic cells until such time Tesla can make their own (and have enough for $25k small car).

If Pana were to use Tesla Battery day tech, they will have to make additional investments plus write down the value of their 18650 lines in Giga 1, one of which was commissioned only recently

 

[DragonWatch]

Battery observation

Old saying, lead or get out of the way. Or, poo or get off the pot.

Elon is leading the way in the evolution of battery technology. Tesla/Elon has taken golf carts and made them fashionable.

In my early stages of stone sculpting, many more experienced sculptors scoffed at my creating bowls. Most said it could not be done. When I sold one for a thousand dollars, they got off the pot.

I cannot change your mind; anymore than you can change mine. What I have found, is that sculpting a stone into a centerpiece of beauty is easier than trying to encourage someone to follow; and more challenging encouraging them to lead. I also found during my enlisted and officer career; if you do your best, do it correctly one step at a time; they will follow. Someone else will always have a different point of view or better way regardless.

Me, I am the old Fuddy-duddy trying to keep up with, and if possible, get ahead of the game.

Had to let my wife drive the Model X this morning. As much as I still love to drive, that is one beautiful ride ~ bar none.

When you put into perspective, Fuddy-duddy men have been on earth eight hundred thousand years and are only now beginning to make energy from the sun, wind and batteries. Frying an egg on a rock does not count.

Hey, end of quarter is next week ~ record? My experience is that 4Qs walk away with the numbers

 

[Singuy]

Disclaimer: This is just my humble opinion

* The first 4680 cells from the Kato road line will go to the Semi (100% confidence)
* Then any remaining capacity will go to Cybertruck & Plaid Model S (50/50 confidence)
* Berlin Model Y gets its own line in late 2021
* Fremont X,3,Y & Austin Y continue to get Giga 1 Pana 2170 cells until Tesla ramps up. Probably in 2022. My Twitter friend Louis tells me Pana contract expires in June 2023
* Standard Range+ Model 3 and Ys in EU, China, Hong Kong, Australia & China will be CATL supplied Lithium Iron Phosphate prismatic cells until such time Tesla can make their own (and have enough for $25k small car).

My prediction is just like how they did it with CATL, they will make enough efficiency gains with 3/Y using Pano cells in the U.S that they will merely match the range using 4680 in Berlin or else there will be a revolt if there are Ys out having significantly more range while costing less.

 

[SPadival]

if there are Ys out having significantly more range while costing less.

or Berlin Ys will have fewer 4680 cells to match American Ys range. Better for margin and to manage cell supply. I don’t even know if there will be a revolt though. Will Americans revolt that they are not getting front casting in the Y?

 

[hobbes]

Regarding record quarter overall or not - Elon tweeting thanks to the team a few days *before* the end of the quarter is a good sign IMHO.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1309942048410071040

Thanks Tesla Team for great work on deliveries! For new owners, we super appreciate accommodating us on delivery timing! Definitely one of our toughest quarters in global logistics.

 

[Singuy]

or Berlin Ys will have fewer 4680 cells to match American Ys range. Better for margin and to manage cell supply. I don’t even know if there will be a revolt though. Will Americans revolt that they are not getting front casting in the Y?

Americans love range more than europeans. No one really cares about how the car is made. Performance/price/range had to be the same. A 5% variance is no big deal. A revolt will happen if it's 20% cheaper while having 50% more range.

 

[Lycanthrope]

There is a big problem with your premise. HODL by definition means LONG TERM investing. Just because a lottery ticket came in for you in a very short period of time in one of the biggest bull stocks of a century, doesn't mean you are a genius. You are looking at a short term lucky trade and comparing it to HODL over the same (short) time period. Makes no sense. As I have mentioned, my words of advice to you are not intended in any way to criticize you. I have seen this movie several times (including one I starred in!). I too, got very lucky twice. Once when and had a a couple of hundred thousand drop in my lap (I had almost nothing, before that). The second time I got lucky was learning these lessons (that I am trying to convey to you) before I gave it all back. I came close. GLTY.

I have never stated I am a genius, in fact quite the opposite, I'm just continually pointing out that you can make more money trading the stock and options. Yeah, it comes with risks, and I'm fully aware of those.

OK, I'm out of this particular discussion now, it's not going anywhere.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Can’t wait for troys update on the 27th

Well some of us already know it

 

[CorneliusXX]

Disclaimer: This is just my humble opinion

* The first 4680 cells from the Kato road line will go to the Semi (100% confidence)
* Then any remaining capacity will go to Cybertruck & Plaid Model S (50/50 confidence)
* Berlin Model Y gets its own line in late 2021
* Fremont X,3,Y & Austin Y continue to get Giga 1 Pana 2170 cells until Tesla ramps up. Probably in 2022. My Twitter friend Louis tells me Pana contract expires in June 2023
* Standard Range+ Model 3 and Ys in EU, China, Hong Kong, Australia & China will be CATL supplied Lithium Iron Phosphate prismatic cells until such time Tesla can make their own (and have enough for $25k small car).

If Pana were to use Tesla Battery day tech, they will have to make additional investments plus write down the value of their 18650 lines in Giga 1, one of which was commissioned only recently

A couple of minor points

• All the 18650 cells come from old Pana factories in Japan. These power the S&X
• GF1 is solely 2170. These power the 3&Y at Fremont

 

[MC3OZ]

A couple of minor points

• All the 18650 cells come from old Pana factories in Japan. These power the S&X
• GF1 is solely 2170. These power the 3&Y at Fremont

There was some speculation earlier that import volumes of 1865(0) have dropped.

Also at one stage Tesla mentioned batteries for the Semi coming from GF1 (Nevada).

We don't know what Tesla has planned, and IMO some sandbagging the the Battery Day presentation is highly likely..

So exactly where 4680 cells are going, or may go is a complete mystery.

But if they successfully ramp 10 GWh, that is sufficient for 100K Model S/X with 100 kWh packs,
1865 lines in Japan could be converted to make 2170 for Tesla Energy... that frees up more 2170 for Model 3/Y.
Is this guess any better or worse than any other guess? probably not....

We know now the Semi needs 'High Nickel" packs that seems to imply 4680.. but as far as we know GF Nevada doesn't make 4680 cells.

We will find out when vehicles with 4680 are shipping in volume, in the meantime it is easy to guess wrong and hard to guess right.

 

[CorneliusXX]

There was some speculation earlier that import volumes of 1865(0) have dropped.

I saw the report too, but this seems strange to me in terms of replacing the S&X supply - why would they change the pack to 2170 after so long on 18650 when they'll just have to do it again soon when the 4680 ramps?

Also at one stage Tesla mentioned batteries for the Semi coming from GF1 (Nevada).

We don't know what Tesla has planned, and IMO some sandbagging the the Battery Day presentation is highly likely..

So exactly where 4680 cells are going, or may go is a complete mystery.

In terms of cells already produced. Drew said they had made 10s of 000s of 4680 cells. My understanding is that a 75KWh pack would take around 800 4680 cells - so a new plaid pack uses c.1,200-1,500 cells (as a rough guess) - That's only 6-8 plaid drivetrains per 10k cells.

At the moment the 4680s have probably just been used for test vehicles - a fleet of less than 80 would use up all that has currently been made - even less if going into semi prototypes. That said, Elon's new tweet confuses things a little - Is he just referring to having their cells in packs driving prototype cars, or is there more to it?

But if they successfully ramp 10 GWh, that is sufficient for 100K Model S/X with 100 kWh packs,
1865 lines in Japan could be converted to make 2170 for Tesla Energy... that frees up more 2170 for Model 3/Y.
Is this guess any better or worse than any other guess? probably not....

Maybe - but would those old lines be worth refurbishing given the extreme efficiency gain of roadrunner and their limited output potential?

We know now the Semi needs 'High Nickel" packs that seems to imply 4680.. but as far as we know GF Nevada doesn't make 4680 cells.

We will find out when vehicles with 4680 are shipping in volume, in the meantime it is easy to guess wrong and hard to guess right.

Agree - it's quite difficult to get the numbers post 4680 introduction to align with the information we have.

 

[SPadival]

A couple of minor points

• All the 18650 cells come from old Pana factories in Japan. These power the S&X
• GF1 is solely 2170. These power the 3&Y at Fremont

Damn it. That was a typo. Thanks !

 

[Artful Dodger]

But I can't see CATL continuing to scale LFP production to meet Teslas long term production needs. Especially with SR+ constitutuing nearly half of Model 3 production. Once Tesla has scaled 4680 production facilities they will likely introduce their own LFP cathodes in 4680 cells for shorter range products. Possibly as early as sometime in 2022.

On bty day, Tesla publicly commited to purchasing 100 GWh from its bty suppliers in 2022. Right now, Tesla purchases about ~40% that amnt from Panasonic and LG combined, with Pana. committed to providing an additional ~3.5GWh with the new line in Spark, NV.

The purchase plan from CATL for LPG packs might be on the order of ~50 GWh, depending on on the mix that MiC Model Y uses for battery packs.

I don't think Tesla builds their new cells in China first, especially with so many local suppliers. I think Germany and Austin, TX are the first places we'll see seriously large volume production of the 4680/RR cells.

Tesla's 2022 bty cell production plan maybe something like 10 GWh in Fremont for S/X/R, 37.5 GWh in Berlin for 500K Model Y x 75 KWh each, and 52.5 GWh in Austin for some mix of Model Y, Semi, and Cybertruck. High nickel, high energy to start, per Elon. NMC in Berlin + a mix in Austin for Model Y (NMC) and Semi/Cybertruck (High Nickel). That's mostly just a chemistry change, so the bty lines should be relatively easy to adapt.

TL;dr Fun Times!

Cheers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Tesla seems to be the only company capable of redesigning products and technology from scratch because they don’t have big, unmovable, permanent assembly lines that administration refuses to change.
Giga press
Battery design
Steel frame
Etc

Legacy companies don’t have to implement any new changed because the same old same old works just fine for them.

 

[JBRR]

https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1310157418349965315?s=20

DEVON, WPX ARE IN TALKS TO MERGE
DEVON, WPX DISCUSS ALL-STOCK DEAL
DEVON, WPX HAVE COMBINED MARKET VALUE OF ABOUT $6B ENERGY-COMPANY
TIE-UP COULD BE FINALIZED THIS WEEK

Devon is a SP500 company, WPX used to be SP500 until 2014 but is now in the SP400.

Relevant to potential TSLA SP500 inclusion as this merger will likely cause a spot to open in SP400 that could be filled by a company relegated from SP500.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Dave Lee just made me believe 99% certitude than Elon is sandbagging to avoid Osborne effect

In 2023, the World will radically different

There will be more change in 3 years in automotive industry than in the last century

 

[Words of HABIT]

View attachment 592631

Elon....you sly guy!!!

This is huge. How far a stretch of the imagination would it be to say Tesla used the new 4680 cells in the Plaid Model S tracking 1:30.3 at Laguna Seca?