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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

ZachF

Active Member
Mar 31, 2016
1,794
17,649
Park City, UT
Just for the record, Here's my post from the day after the Semi / Roadster reveal. I never believed in the double stack battery theory. Would be way too heavy. New battery tech secured!

Tesla Semi Event -- November 16, 2017
Can we assume that 200MWH battery in such a small probably light car implies a significantly improved/different battery?
Post by: Thumper, Nov 16, 2017 in forum: Semi

4x Model S Plaid battery packs would hold ~900 KWh, and weigh ~2,500 kg. The average Semi truck weighs about 9000kg unloaded.

At $50/KWh it would cost $45,000 to make.

I'd actually bet the manufacturing cost of that battery + 4-6 drive units is less than the cost to make a giant 13L inline 6 turbodiesel engine + 13 speed transmission....

The ~$150k Semi is easily possible with this battery.
 
Last edited:

Boomer19

Active Member
Jun 10, 2018
2,223
9,370
CT
Did you even read what she wrote?

Here it is, whether she wrote 2 or 3 is immaterial:

"Predictably, when @elonmusk announced at Battery Day last week that would cut the price of a Model 3 to $25,000, several financial analysts panicked, downgrading the stock and/or cutting their price targets. In our view, traditional financial analysts have missed the mark.

Traditional auto analysts are analyzing a mature industry in which lower prices signal trouble: higher inventories and lower sales. Led by #Tesla, electric vehicles (EVs) are in their infancy, and BECAUSE of lower costs and prices, are moving into exponential growth trajectory

According to Wright’s Law, for every cumulative doubling in the number of EVs produced, costs will drop by 28%, suggesting that EV prices will drop below those of gas powered vehicles on a like-for-like basis during the next two years

Analysts following should be expert in energy storage, robotics, artificial intelligence, and software-as-service. While they are expert at the internal combustion engine, traditional auto analysts are not equipped to analyze EVs, particularly .

According to @skorusARK’s battery research, #EV sales will scale nearly 20-fold from roughly 1.8 million last year to 35 million, 40% of total global auto sales, during the next five to six years.

The auto industry has not enjoyed exponential growth in roughly 100 years. EVs have entered exponential growth territory that will last for the next five to ten years."

Elon corrected her in that he referred to the new model when talking about the $25k price, but that the prices of existing models will be going down as well I think is uncontested.. We saw it with model s S, X and 3 already. So, even with her writing 3, she is still right on point..

Stop presenting this as some incompetent gaffe..

she made an unforced error. it happens
 

phantasms

Supporting Member
Jan 30, 2019
1,335
7,580
Cross River, NY
she made an unforced error. it happens

Exactly.

Screen Shot 2020-09-28 at 10.57.44 AM.png
 

ZsoZso

Supporting Member
Apr 24, 2014
1,676
9,661
Brampton, Ontario
BTW, for the ATV, a 20KWh Roadrunner pack would weigh ~185 (84kg) pounds and cost about $1000 to make... Plus it would be capable of 150hp!
...[snipped]...
Makes you wonder if Tesla will also get into manufacturing lawnmowers, tractors, etc....

IMHO, Tesla definitely should get into tractors, industrial and mining machinery, in order to forever silence the negative Nancies who keep bringing up carbon footprint of EV and battery manufacturing, (incorrectly) claiming it is worse than an ICE vehicle. The reality is that all that alleged carbon footprint comes purely from various part and raw material transportation plus industrial and mining equipment that is still diesel powered. If all those are replaced with EV technology, then the entire production starting from raw material mining to final Tesla vehicles can be done with zero emissions.
 

Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Mar 6, 2013
8,264
19,530
San Diego
The one part that seems too good to be true to me is the silicon anode, mainly becuase it is new and I don't fully understand it.

Actually, that’s one part I liked a lot. The hype around silicon anodes is that they have 10x theoretical energy density over graphite, which isn’t even true. Due to other constraints, the max achievable is more like 3x. But anyways, what Tesla announced wasn’t even close to that, They only said 20% improvement BUT also a huge reduction in cost from $10 to $1.2 for the anode.

So instead of reaching for the moon for a 3x energy density boost with a silicon anode, like Novonix is doing with silicon nanowire, Tesla recognized all those other solutions are too expensive (at least currently). So, recognizing that synthetic graphite isn’t cheap, they realized they could go with much cheaper silicon, but do it in such a way to not get much of a energy density boost BUT it would reduce costs significantly. I think it’s brilliant.
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Nov 15, 2013
8,664
65,944
At home
IMHO, Tesla definitely should get into tractors, industrial and mining machinery, in order to forever silence the negative Nancies who keep bringing up carbon footprint of EV and battery manufacturing, (incorrectly) claiming it is worse than an ICE vehicle. The reality is that all that alleged carbon footprint comes purely from various part and raw material transportation plus industrial and mining equipment that is still diesel powered. If all those are replaced with EV technology, then the entire production starting from raw material mining to final Tesla vehicles can be done with zero emissions.

Tractors would be great - to remove the noise of those monstrosities from the country-side would be amazing.
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,537
4,863
Indialantic FL
One of the first things I checked was supercharger pricing on my new Model Y as I currently don’t have access to home charging. Well it turns out, if I’m happy to charge beyond 4-9pm, some Bay Area chargers cut my fuel cost in half ($0.31 / kWh normal, $0.16 for off-peak). So I can probably cover a mile for about 5 cents on that! My gas car was over 20 cents a mile on cheap US gas. Since we’re semi-retired, I have the freedom to save on fuel.

Frugality is not necessarily related to your pot size in the bank (or in TSLA for most of us on this board) :D
I've considered the cost of Supercharging to be a huge PLUS for the group of us that plan on seeing the USA in our Conestoga Cybertrcks. Originally (before I got the Tesla Money Bug) I hoped to earn enough money with TSLA that I could pay off the house, buy a small ($40k) property in Alabama, and buy a Cyber Conestoga Wagon. And then just tour the USA on my Social Security income, seeing everything a poor boy never got to see except in magazines, Or in the late Winter TV scheduling, on a Sunday Afternoon with Curt Gowdy, The American Sportsman.
Yes, Supercharger Fuel pricing is awesome, but especially if it is also being your "Home utility bill" for months on the road.
And i imagine to a lesser extent other road vacationers will grin from ear to ear as they top off their tank of electrons at the Supercharger.
 

bkp_duke

Active Member
May 15, 2016
4,957
15,687
San Diego, CA
Today's variable speed heat pumps are just about perfect. Maybe Musk just has a crappy system at home.

What's really missing are innovative ways to make ground source heat pumps in cold climates ubiquitous.

Given what Tesla did with the Octovalve, and put traditionally heat pump engineering to shame, I have no doubt that they can improve significantly on current home heat pump applications.
 

cusetownusa

Member
Jan 29, 2020
457
684
Syracuse NY
Stupid question...why is Tesla getting into Semi's before busses? Seems like busses would be an "easier" challenge compared to Semi's. School busses for example...They have plenty of time they can charge after the morning route and after the afternoon route.

Is there just more profit to be had with Semi's versus busses?

Plus I hate getting stuck behind a school bus and just watch the exhaust pore out. lol
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
12,865
37,839
Michigan
Actually, that’s one part I liked a lot. The hype around silicon anodes is that they have 10x theoretical energy density over graphite, which isn’t even true. Due to other constraints, the max achievable is more like 3x. But anyways, what Tesla announced wasn’t even close to that, They only said 20% improvement BUT also a huge reduction in cost from $10 to $1.2 for the anode.

So instead of reaching for the moon for a 3x energy density boost with a silicon anode, like Novonix is doing with silicon nanowire, Tesla recognized all those other solutions are too expensive (at least currently). So, recognizing that synthetic graphite isn’t cheap, they realized they could go with much cheaper silicon, but do it in such a way to not get much of a energy density boost BUT it would reduce costs
significantly. I think it’s brilliant.
Yeah, a 10x capacity anode doesn't help if the rest of the cell is not sized for that.
The energy improvement of Silicon is for an equal mass
Silicon has a much larger specific capacity (3600 mAh/g) than graphite (372 mAh/g)
Lithium–silicon battery - Wikipedia
Tesla likely downsized the anode to get a 20% boost with much less material (cost and mass savings). Thinner layer probably also gives better utilization and leaves room for other components (densities are very similar).
 

Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Mar 6, 2013
8,264
19,530
San Diego
The market lept up after the election 4yrs ago. All kinds of stocks went up. It was due to the removal of uncertainty. I think it would have done the same thing had Clinton been elected.

This time around there is certainly the same level of uncertainty weighing on the market, and if the current behviour (rallying) is anything to go by, it will explode after the election. There may be some volatility if the result is contested or delayed.

In normal times, I would agree with you. At some point, the fact that our economy has been severely affected by the coronavirus has to mean something. Layered onto political issues, infection rates might spike going into the fall and then different states are going to react. So we shall see...
 
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mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
12,865
37,839
Michigan
Stupid question...why is Tesla getting into Semi's before busses? Seems like busses would be an "easier" challenge compared to Semi's. School busses for example...They have plenty of time they can charge after the morning route and after the afternoon route. Plus I hate getting stuck behind a school bus and just watch the exhaust pore out. lol

Tesla has shipping costs an internal fleet would reduce.
Other companies are doing buses.
Emissions wise, semis are a larger contributor. Medium and heavy duty trucks are ~20x buses

https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P100ZK4P.pdf
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,537
4,863
Indialantic FL
Given what Tesla did with the Octovalve, and put traditionally heat pump engineering to shame, I have no doubt that they can improve significantly on current home heat pump applications.
I've tried to see how, and I can't most of what Elon talks about when discussing HVAC for the home was available in theory back in the mid 1990's. And today's Thermostats do all the variations in adjusting air temperature that Elon has stated. As well as the micro-units adjusting temps for each room.
The only area that is left for improvement is reliability and efficiency, and I don't see an octovalve as a meaningful technology for HVAC. Octovalve is capable of repeatedly adjusting the thermal aspects of various components using the same source...
LOL I guess if you designed an HVAC that kept your Fridge Cold, and funneled heat produced by your AC to your oven you'd have the equivalent of a home octovalve. In other words..not happening in Elon's lifetime.
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
14,978
31,853
Oregon
Stupid question...why is Tesla getting into Semi's before busses? Seems like busses would be an "easier" challenge compared to Semi's. School busses for example...They have plenty of time they can charge after the morning route and after the afternoon route.

Elon said it was because other companies are already tackling buses, so they don't need to. Nobody was really going after Semi's. (Also Jerome has lots of Semi experience and wanted to do it.)
 

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