Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Wall Street & Analyst Battery Day Response: Elon's new batteries aren't ready for prime time!
Stock: Drop from $450 to $360.
Elon: Actually, we've made a lot of them and we've been running them in our cars for months! And this is revolutionary. And we have it. Now.
Stock: Recover only to $420.
Me: Wall Street is blind.

 

[BlackS]

Wall Street & Analyst Battery Day Response: Elon's new batteries aren't ready for prime time!
Stock: Drop from $450 to $360.
Elon: Actually, we've made a lot of them and we've been running them in our cars for months! And this is revolutionary. And we have it. Now.
Stock: Recover only to $420.
Me: Wall Street is blind.

You forgot...

Me: Thanks for the discounted shares i was able to add

 

[ZeApelido]

More SpaceX news than Tesla, but a link to how much money SpaceX is gonna generate for Musk (GPS navigation).

The US Army wants to modify SpaceX’s Starlink satellites for unjammable navigation

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, considering we are talking about other markets for Tesla. I think new markets are on topic? If not my apologies.

Kimbal Musk's Square Roots is on a mission to feed the world — and eventually astronauts on Mars.

Kimball's company is taking shipping containers and turning them into mini farms. This might be our future thanks to climate change. These pods would be placed in urban areas (lowering cost of shipping the food). Hey, how do you think we should power these? Perhaps solar, with battery backups. Bonus round, high yield indoor farming is a critical pillar for an extra-terrestrial colony. Of course that's totally unrelated to Tesla.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

mrw sifting through posts and seeing all of the rabbit holes people went down. Still read 'em all though.

In investment/trading news I'm liking the uptrend in Tesla's share price while seeing a continual decrease in expected volatility with option IV now in the 93% range. IV has been higher 62% of the time in the last twelve trailing months. Once IV drops below 90% I think purchasing straddles (buying a call and put at the same strike price) is a great trade betting on Tesla's upside while protecting yourself from downside risk.

 

[Unpilot]

First, he's from Michigan. Second, he knows trucks. Third, he really studies.

Everything except the Michigan part makes sense.

 

[Sanny]

Just guessing here, but school busses are sold to school districts, which move at the speed of municipal govts. Ie the sales cycle is long and tortuous. They also aren’t the most innovative buyers in the world. GP is one company that makes busses. Read their press releases to understand the hoops you have to go through to win contracts.

Not an educator, but I was always under the impression that US is purposely using non-air-conditioned, built on a truck chassis school buses to toughen those spoiled modern kids up a bit.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If anyone feels like listening to 8 mins of nonstop misinformation, go listen to the Adam Jonas interview on yahoo finance that was posted about 30 mins ago.

Tesla's China sales will see a 'steady decline' to nothing by 2030: Adam Jonas

Watch at your own risk of tolerance

 

[SOULPEDL]

A few pages back, someone mentioned that it should be obvious what's going to happen when you look at the 6 mo or 1yr, and left it there...

Here's the 6 mo. The SP movement doesn't really say much to me, but were you talking about the BB? (Sorry I couldn't find the post and it was today, lol.) As my shape predicting skills go, is the BB going to get skinny and go up? (You can tell I'm a real pro.)

 

[bkp_duke]

A few pages back, someone mentioned that it should be obvious what's going to happen when you look at the 6 mo or 1yr, and left it there...

Here's the 6 mo. The SP movement doesn't really say much to me, but were you talking about the BB? (Sorry I couldn't find the post and it was today, lol.) As my shape predicting skills go, is the BB going to get skinny and go up? (You can tell I'm a real pro.)

View attachment 593044

Amateur here, but have been reading @Curt Renz 's book, and to me it looks like the last 3 months or so are forming a "bullish pennant / wedge" pattern based upon the share price pattern, indicating consolidation with a possible break-out soon.

My gut tells me that the break-out news would be Q3 deliveries and possible S&P inclusion.

Not advice, just my personal read. If I'm wrong, please teach me more and what to look for.

 

[heltok]

Wall Street & Analyst Battery Day Response: Elon's new batteries aren't ready for prime time!
Stock: Drop from $450 to $360.
Elon: Actually, we've made a lot of them and we've been running them in our cars for months! And this is revolutionary. And we have it. Now.
Stock: Recover only to $420.
Me: Wall Street is blind.

Wall Street & Analyst Battery Day Response: Elon's new batteries aren't ready for prime time!
Stock: Drop from $450 to $360.
Me: Guess I’m buying again!
Elon: Actually, we've made a lot of them and we've been running them in our cars for months! And this is revolutionary. And we have it. Now.
Me: LDO! How else could they drive it in Nürburgring or say that yield is rate is not perfect yet?
Stock: Recover only to $420.
Me: Thanks Wallstreet! Now just gotta decide if I should diversify back or hodl a bit longer just for the hell of it!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

A few pages back, someone mentioned that it should be obvious what's going to happen when you look at the 6 mo or 1yr, and left it there...

Here's the 6 mo. The SP movement doesn't really say much to me, but were you talking about the BB? (Sorry I couldn't find the post and it was today, lol.) As my shape predicting skills go, is the BB going to get skinny and go up? (You can tell I'm a real pro.)

View attachment 593044

If you plot trend points on the highs and lows on each rally and corresponding consolidation, dating back 6 month to 1 year, to me at least, its very clear the stock jumps to the 550-600 level on the next rally to keep that trend line intact.

Obviously if there were not near term catalysts to initiate the next rally to keep that trend line intact, i wouldn't be nearly as confident in those trend lines staying intact. The longer we stay in this consolidation period, the higher I think the stock will rally to keep those trend lines intact

 

[KMCC]

I've considered the cost of Supercharging to be a huge PLUS for the group of us that plan on seeing the USA in our Conestoga Cybertrcks. Originally (before I got the Tesla Money Bug) I hoped to earn enough money with TSLA that I could pay off the house, buy a small ($40k) property in Alabama, and buy a Cyber Conestoga Wagon. And then just tour the USA on my Social Security income, seeing everything a poor boy never got to see except in magazines, Or in the late Winter TV scheduling, on a Sunday Afternoon with Curt Gowdy, The American Sportsman.
Yes, Supercharger Fuel pricing is awesome, but especially if it is also being your "Home utility bill" for months on the road.
And i imagine to a lesser extent other road vacationers will grin from ear to ear as they top off their tank of electrons at the Supercharger.

My wife and I are planning on hitting the road in our cybertruck when the time comes. It would be fun to do it in a LARGE group.
Talk about free advertising. Can you imagine 100 cybertrucks traveling the country as a convoy!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just guessing here, but school busses are sold to school districts, which move at the speed of municipal govts. Ie the sales cycle is long and tortuous. They also aren’t the most innovative buyers in the world. GP is one company that makes busses. Read their press releases to understand the hoops you have to go through to win contracts.

Tesla’s strategy is to go after the highest volume vehicles. The ones that need the most batteries. Things that aren’t as high volume (like farm and utility tractors), or have small battery needs (like lawnmowers) are going to have to be supplied by others. Great business opportunities for entrepreneurs I would think.

I could see Tesla partnering with a school bus manufacturer to deliver packs/drivetrains. There's probably a lot of margin up for grabs as demand should ramp quite dramatically. Well-off school districts will be absolutely demanding US manufactured EV school buses starting pretty much now, Tesla can easily take a fat margin that the manufacturer will happily pass on without complaint.

It'll be interesting to see if Chinese/Korean packs and drivetrains will be acceptable to these elitist school districts at the front end of the demand explosion. I guess it'll probably be fine, but there are a lot of weird rules in the school bus manufacturing world.

 

[scaesare]

Watch Sandy Munroe's videos about it. It accomplishes in about 3 pieces what would take traditional setups orders of magnitude more pieces and space.

That's my point. It's a packaging optimization. It packages multiple valves in a single assmbly. But there's really no new functionality/capability it introduces.

 

[JRP3]

LOL I guess if you designed an HVAC that kept your Fridge Cold, and funneled heat produced by your AC to your oven you'd have the equivalent of a home octovalve

More practical would be waste heat from fridge could go to heat pump water heater, someone probably already offers this.

 

[Chenkers]

Some thoughts on a future Tesla home HVAC:

The highest efficiency home HVAC heat pump units currently available have a Coefficient of Performance (COP) of around 6.0 (eg Daikin US7). This is a small split system unit of around 2.5kW cooling/3.6kW heating, so enough for a medium sized room. The COP drops off considerably in the larger unit sizes. Most conventional inverter split system AC units would have a COP around 3.5-4.5. Larger commercial systems can be much more efficient with large Chiller COP's around 10 but other parasitic system losses with pumps, pipes, ducts and fans generally bring the total system COP back well under 5.

The main contributors to home HVAC energy efficiency are the quality and design of the compressor, internal and external fan efficiencies, coil and filter pressure drops and controls. Going away from air cooled to water cooled or geothermal will also improve efficiency but also adds significant complexity and cost. Elon is talking about adding a HEPA filter and that will typically add extra pressure drop and energy unless the filter is very large. Quality component design and smart integration of the compressor motors, fans and controls should shave off energy. However there are limitations in physics/thermodynamics that will limit what is acheivable in a compact package. I expect they will still come up with a highly compelling home HVAC product but it may be as much for the AI/Controls and energy system integration as it is for energy efficiency and indoor air quality.

 

[dgodfrey]

In case you guys were wondering what applying Tesla's battery day slide:

with a baseline model 3 battery pack, it looks like this:

What you see above is the end of ICE.

The $/KWh of $108 is from Sandy Munro's estimate. (Same with the $250 for the Bolt)

For instance, a circa 2023/2024 Tesla Model 3 Plaid edition could not only easily be a 850hp monster with 450-500 miles of range, but it would cost less to build than the current M3P! Even with more powerful motors taken into account!

Using the bottom numbers as a baseline, they match up with Plaid S perfectly. You end up with a 630kg battery pack with ~150KWh of storage, 840 KW of power, and a cost of $7,128.

BTW, The 200KWh Roadster pack probably has ~1.1MW of power available!!!!!

Thanks for putting the work into this. Much appreciated and very informative. I do question though the validity of the Bolt pack shown on your graph as the most expensive of all and more than twice that of the current Model 3 pack. Can you link where Sandy Munro stated that number? I can believe $150 but earlier reports before the Bolt hit the streets had them getting a sweetheart deal from LG Chem which leaked and put LG in a sticky situation as their agreements between clients could become ammunition for those that paid more.
The price you list is retail to replace a Bolt pack, certainly not what GM pays. It was rumored that GM is paying LG $145/kWh at the cell level and $196/kWh for the pack.

 

[dc_h]

I think the Plaid that went around the 'ring and the current plaid are two completely different cars. I don't think they had the Roadrunner batteries yet. For one, the new plaid makes >800kw of power vs the 500kw shown there.

I think the new one will be much faster...

Elon should have some game mode for drivers to pass before unlocking full power of Plaid and maybe some geo awareness so no one drives 150mph in a school zone. There's a lot of things in modern society that should have some gaming type level up opportunities. This car in the wrong hands is a bad headline waiting to be published. I would love to have this and know it would kick butt on the top of the line Mercedes AMG, but I really can't be trusted with that kind of power.

 

[Beltsbear]

Plus, there's no reason the Semi can't be the basis for a school bus or many other types of transport vehicles over time. Just load all them damn kids in a trailer with windows and there you go!

You can use 1/2 the drivetrain for a really kick ass school bus. One axe, (two motors) and half the battery would be plenty. Possible to use 1/4 the battery I some conditions.