Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

Can't wait to see Arks share price projection after they plug in battery day and Elon's est of 66.6% market share of EV sales in ten years to equal 20mm Tesla EVs. So much for waiting for lower IV to jump into some more options.

On two occasions recently I've heard an Ark analyst say they are revising their Tesla forecast. Hope they don't wait until January to release it.

 

[insaneoctane]

4x Model S Plaid battery packs would hold ~900 KWh, and weigh ~2,500 kg. The average Semi truck weighs about 9000kg unloaded.

At $50/KWh it would cost $45,000 to make.

I'd actually bet the manufacturing cost of that battery + 4-6 drive units is less than the cost to make a giant 13L inline 6 turbodiesel engine + 13 speed transmission....

The ~$150k Semi is easily possible with this battery.

The proposition of the semi has had me scratching my head since its unveiling. Finally, BD has created a scenario that makes it possible IMO. Until BD, I could never see the margins, scale and cell availability to be feasible. My next question is are we sure that the semi requires the high Nickel, high performance, highest price cells?

 

[UkNorthampton]

That's my point. It's a packaging optimization. It packages multiple valves in a single assmbly. But there's really no new functionality/capability it introduces.

Contains conjecture:-

Redistributes any heat from any system to where it is needed most. Cools anything that needs cooling. Otherwise you have some sub-systems cooling and some using resistive heating all at the same time. Much more efficient.

Motors warm and approaching supercharger - use heat from motors to warm up cells. With a domestic air-source heat pump, you might get 4 heat from 1 unit of electricity. Maybe similar here 25 C motors take cells up to 50 C with a heatpump. The motors don't need cooling, but do have useful heat for the cells and much better than resistive heating

 

[mongo]

The proposition of the semi has had me scratching my head since its unveiling. Finally, BD has created a scenario that makes it possible IMO. Until BD, I could never see the margins, scale and cell availability to be feasible. My next question is are we sure that the semi requires the high Nickel, high performance, highest price cells?

Semi needs the cells that provide the range and weight to fit the market. Leading with the lightest, highest energy version ensures maximum addressable market (assuming final cost is not prohibitive, but given the number of miles, that amortizes out easily.).

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Great insight, what time horizons do you like for the straddles?

I'm watching the March 19, 2021 options for a possible short term trade. You have Q3, Q4, and poss sp500 inclusion as events that should result in a spike in IV. A few weeks ago when I initiated a straddle with IV I think around 88 there was a spike the following week to above 100 and both calls and puts were up in value even though the puts were further out of the money.

For people who would rather not buy straddles, and prefer to purchase call options the 2023 leaps look great too.

 

[Mike Ambler]

Today's variable speed heat pumps are just about perfect. Maybe Musk just has a crappy system at home.

What's really missing are innovative ways to make ground source heat pumps in cold climates ubiquitous.

Boring Company... the Micro Godot (or what do they call them now)

 

[Lessmog]

Boring Company... the mirco Godot (or what do they call them now)

"Garden Gary"?

 

[Mo City]

The proposition of the semi has had me scratching my head since its unveiling. Finally, BD has created a scenario that makes it possible IMO. Until BD, I could never see the margins, scale and cell availability to be feasible. My next question is are we sure that the semi requires the high Nickel, high performance, highest price cells?

See this slide.

 

[Mr X]

Wonder how high the stock will be post-split 5 years from now...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Cathie specifically used the phrase "$TSLA would cut the price of a Model 3 to $25,000".

That phrasing implies there is an existing product at a higher price.

It's more likely, IMHO, that Cathie doesn't follow Tesla tech as closely as ARK Invest analysts Sam Korus or Tasha Keeney.

Meet the ARK Team | People passionate about innovation and tomorrow's future

Kathie depends on them for financial analysis, not product road map. It's understandable she missing some nuance (wouldn't last at TMC, wot?)

Cheers!

Crazy is, I posted that theory on battery day, so maybe she's reading my posts, lol. I do still think it's possible, (and it was already debated some here)... but agree she gaffed. Perhaps it's a logical conclusion at ARK that slipped off the tongue, or they have some inside info. It's the conclusion that I came to as well.

Cheeseburger Question:

Is it cheaper to invest CapX in a new model, or just continually ramp the same model and just lower Mfg costs? ​

As if the Model 3 isn't good enough for the US markets. Not a big appetite here for smaller cars, but we will still have Model 3 capacity in the US. That's a distribution issue if demand for North America tapers. So the price must drop, IMHO.

I believe Elon left this out bc of its value to the bears as proof NOT to invest in TSLA, the new break-even company. Battery cost reduction makes this possible.

 

[lafrisbee]

Well who's selling right now? This is just two se

Well who's selling right now? This is just two servers selling the same share backwards and forwards all day...

Members are rating this "funny."
I don't get it.

 

[Mo City]

So Elon foresees Tesla taking 20M BEV share out of 30M BEV total market.

66.6% share.

Tesla producing 20M BEVs/year before 2030 might be Elon's most ambitious forecast ever. To reach this, growth the next 3-4 years needs to be close to 100% annually before declining (on a % basis) as 2030 approaches.

I think 2-3 huge announcements on new factories are coming over the next 12-18 months.

 

[Mo City]

My IRA mutual funds finally sold and cash cleared.

Do we think we will get another buy opportunity this week at or below 400 before deliveries are reported late in the week?

My gut tells me this is my last opportunity to get in at the low 400s. After deliveries, there will likely be a share price pop, and then more talk of inclusion which will further the pop . . .

Elon once said, “Don’t doubt yer vibe”.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Are 3Q production & deliveries announced this week?

 

[lafrisbee]

Are 3Q production & deliveries announced this week?

Most likely Oct 2nd

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Are 3Q production & deliveries announced this week?

Very likely they'll be announced before market opens on Friday. Chance of it being released after hours on the 1st as well.

Low chance they are releaded on Sunday evening...but that would be the latest

 

[phantasms]

Could this but manipulation to get in front of the P&D numbers and have a chance of hitting max pain on Friday?

Also, when did the uptick rule expire?

 

[scaesare]

Contains conjecture:-

Redistributes any heat from any system to where it is needed most. Cools anything that needs cooling. Otherwise you have some sub-systems cooling and some using resistive heating all at the same time. Much more efficient.

Motors warm and approaching supercharger - use heat from motors to warm up cells. With a domestic air-source heat pump, you might get 4 heat from 1 unit of electricity. Maybe similar here 25 C motors take cells up to 50 C with a heatpump. The motors don't need cooling, but do have useful heat for the cells and much better than resistive heating

The Tesla automotive platforms already did multi-component thermal management (eg - scavenging waste heat from motor/inverter to warm the pack) using discrete valves. The octovalve simply consolidated them in to a single assembly. The addition of the heat pump added additional functionality to the system, but was not dependent on the octovalve. Heat pumps have existed for years... in some cases on other EVs.

The octovalve is much like the Model 3's superbottle: a packaging/cost optimization, but not the introduction of new functionality. Both seem to be often misconstrued.

 

[CorneliusXX]

In case you guys were wondering what applying Tesla's battery day slide:

with a baseline model 3 battery pack, it looks like this:

What you see above is the end of ICE.

The $/KWh of $108 is from Sandy Munro's estimate. (Same with the $250 for the Bolt)

For instance, a circa 2023/2024 Tesla Model 3 Plaid edition could not only easily be a 850hp monster with 450-500 miles of range, but it would cost less to build than the current M3P! Even with more powerful motors taken into account!

Using the bottom numbers as a baseline, they match up with Plaid S perfectly. You end up with a 630kg battery pack with ~150KWh of storage, 840 KW of power, and a cost of $7,128.

BTW, The 200KWh Roadster pack probably has ~1.1MW of power available!!!!!

One thing I haven't heard of is what version of the battery leads to these numbers. Assuming the starting position is the 2170 NMC. Is it the high nickel version, Nickel manganese, or LFP that is being considered in these numbers?

Assuming these are the high nickel cells then the others may reduce in cost by even more.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Could this but manipulation to get in front of the P&D numbers and have a chance of hitting max pain on Friday?

Also, when did the uptick rule expire?

Uptick was gone already on Friday...