Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Musk's choice to not do a better presentation. Musk's choice to tweet "very insane" in advance of battery day. There was no "very insane".

I disagree. To a technologist, it was insane. The problem is that there are very few technologists in the press.

 

[Rb48888]

Soon-to-be-ex-again-Mod: 17 posts moved to All anecdotes and discussion about Fit and Finish . Seriously, anecdotes don't prove anything until statistics are gathered. And clearly fit and finish issues don't impact the stock price. So there shall be no more discussion of such issues (or lack thereof... we have 3 Teslas and none have had F&F issues) in this thread. Finally, I will point out that this directive has been issued multiple times before.
--ggr

Can I just say that while I'm quite slow, I've finally learned what might be a useful lesson?

Over the past few days, I have given myself permission to participate in a couple of topics that were arguably OT, thinking there was a bit of a lower standard for after-hours posts.

The problem I see now is that keeping the OT conversation going just results in more folks keeping the conversation going, ultimately creating intra-day clutter for folks who are short on time, and unnecessary clean up for mods.

Not pointing fingers (besides at myself), just a pledge to avoid using weekends and off-hours as an excuse to participate in OT conversations and not find the correct thread.

Ultimately, I'd like to help, and not hinder fellow investors.

Thanks mods for your patience. Will do better.

 

[dc_h]

My very rough math seems to indicate you'd need like 50,000 GW of solar to replace everything.

If they last 25 years, that means you need ~2,000GW per year.

Solar panel wholesale prices are dirt cheap (like $0.20 per watt). So the cost to produce those is about $400b per year

Here is why Solar + Batteries + EVs replaces Fossil cars and generation:

Fossil era:
$2,500b in ICE Autos per year
~$1,000b in ICE auto parts per year
$1,300b in Oil production
~$500b in oil refining
~$500b in Natural Gas production
~$500b in coal production

=$6,300b total (about 9% of global GDP)

...can be replaced with:

Renewable era:
$2,500 in EV production
$250b in EV parts
$600b in stationary storage
$400b in solar panels

=$3,750b total... $2,550 in savings for the global population, not counting the horrible externalities of fossil fuels of course, or the hundreds of billions spent on war machines to keep the supply lines safe.

As the price of electricity continues to decline due to scaling of solar, wind and batteries, electricity demand should grow more then the decline in fossil fuels. New businesses, new digitalization, more data centers, more AI, more Boring tunnels for high speed electric transportation will increase humans access to power. This should unleash massive productivity and wealth, especially to TSLA owners.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Interesting, I never got a response to my cheeseburger question on CapX vs Volume for the $25K US vehicle. Maybe it was late so I'll float it once more.

Isn't it possible or viable to keep ramping up production on the Model 3 line than to redesign for a lower cost vehicle and start over on tooling etc? If Tesla could cut costs (battery) and increase volume, anyone else see the $25K Model 3 besides ARK and I for future US markets?

Think distribution - what do USA customers want for $25K? A mini version from China or Germany? Not if shipping adds to the cost, time, and reduces cash flow, so shipping from overseas is out. Instead, just keep building a modified Model 3 which further reduces costs, add cheaper batteries, leave out some free options and sell it for $25K and upgrade feature later. I bet there's a way. Maybe tweak the Financing too.

 

[Tslynk67]

More anaemic volume... I can only guess people are apprehensive about the P&D

Edit: nevertheless, although $TSLA is down more than many tech stocks, I feel that if the intern takes too long a bathroom break, it will run up very quickly. Pressure building, IMO.

 

[scaesare]

Musk's choice to not do a better presentation. Musk's choice to tweet "very insane" in advance of battery day. There was no "very insane".

In the long run it doesn't matter. Tesla seems on the right track.

Yeah, building the sheer number of terawatt scale factory capacity they are planning on (dwarfing the current planet -wide output) while making advancements on the fronts of cell anode chemistry, cell physical design, metallurgy, materials refining, automotive chassis innovation, and cell manufacturing process really didn't impress at all.

 

[scaesare]

Please swing by Buffalo along the way. Everyone could take in Niagara Falls and my wife

Wow, very open and accommodating... especially on her part!

and I could join the convoy.

Again quite the offer!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla is trying to mine its own Lithium after dropping M&A plan

"Tesla held discussions in recent months with Cypress Development Corp., which is seeking to extract lithium from clay deposits in southwest Nevada, but the parties didn’t reach a deal"

Ok, that makes a lot more sense. What likely happened is that Tesla had talks with Cypress. Cypress wanted too much money for basically an R&D exercise that might never work (that method of lithium extraction has never been done before at scale). So rather than pay Cypress too much $$, Tesla said we can do basic R&D as well as anyone, especially when it is building factories, so they cut out Cypress. I infer from this that Cypress didn’t have any significant technology.

Maxwell was an example of the same thing that went the other way. Either Maxwell’s technology was further advanced, or it wasn’t and Tesla now feels they bought a pig in a poke and thus were wiser with Cypress (I offer that second hypothesis just as a possibility).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Moved over from the Twittersphere. Already recognize some names. Good to be here.

Please do tell us any differences you’ve noticed between the two. I’m genuinely curious. The only time I go to Twitter is to read Elon’s tweets.

 

[bubb]

Musk's choice to not do a better presentation. Musk's choice to tweet "very insane" in advance of battery day. There was no "very insane".

In the long run it doesn't matter. Tesla seems on the right track.

It's not our problem to drag along the mathematically illiterate, rather just another opportunity for those who can see the ambition of the plan and know track record of success for the Elon/Tesla "critical path pressure cooker". I think a novel cell + novel vehicle integration ramped to 10-15x the entire 2019 global supply of lithium ion cells by 2030 is quite the bet (some might call it very insane!), and I've invested my money accordingly.

 

[StealthP3D]

The only thing I didn’t like about Elon’s answer is that he implies it’ll take another five years before the stock price is appreciably higher than it is now. With Cybertruck, semi and roadster coming along with Austin and Berlin, it’ll be way sooner than five years!

That's what I liked about his answer! He's doing a great job of managing expectations for surprises to the upside (my favorite kind).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Positive Barons article.

Electric Vehicles Are Taking Over Everything

I was really glad to see Zero motorcycles selling their power train to a snowmobile manufacturer. We need more of that in the industry. Developing lithium ion battery packs and power train (with associated cooling and battery Mgmt) is not easy and vehicle manufacturers can’t be expected to learn it, but if a company were to make it for them, then we would see lots of different kinds of electric vehicles.

Indeed, making powertrains for tractors is an idle dream of mine...

 

[zecar]

Yeah, building the sheer number of terawatt scale factory capacity they are planning on (dwarfing the current planet -wide output) while making advancements on the fronts of cell anode chemistry, cell physical design, metallurgy, materials refining, automotive chassis innovation, and cell manufacturing process really didn't impress at all.

When did impressive become "very insane"? If you have high expectations of Tesla's strategy and engineers then the overall improvements in volume and cost improvements are within expectations. What hasn't been traded is successful execution of the plan with a reasonable time frame.

 

[MP3Mike]

Think distribution - what do USA customers want for $25K? A mini version from China or Germany? Not if shipping adds to the cost, time, and reduces cash flow, so shipping from overseas is out.

Nobody has said that the $25k car would be produced in Germany/China and shipped to the US. It will be designed in Germany/China but manufactured where there is market for it.

 

[CaliBear1]

Man I miss Steve McQueen. Just watched “The Magnificent Seven” for about the 7th time last week! I know, OT... wait, TESLA be printing money!!!

Too busy counting gains for FUD?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

FWIW the volume is really low, like really really low. I think we are on track for one of the lowest volume days in a while. This is not specific to TSLA. It's probably because traders/investors are waiting for the debate tonight.

In the most recent past we have seen TSLA actually take a dip on great delivery numbers. In this case the stock has had quite a run up since the split was announced plus Factset estimate is for 141K deliveries. I guess I'm saying that unless we get a 150K delivery we could see a minor selloff. I would actually be fine with the stock consolidating around these levels until the Q3 ER.

That's not exactly true. Tesla stock has seen big rallies between P/D and Earnings recently......from 25% up to like 40% rallys on the last 3 gaps between P/D and Earnings. I'm expecting the same again. Seems like the motto has been for the past 2 quarters is to push the stock down before P/D numbers come out to limit the total upside and have the stock move higher from a lower base.

 

[scaesare]

When did impressive become "very insane"? If you have high expectations of Tesla's strategy and engineers then the overall improvements in volume and cost improvements are within expectations. What hasn't been traded is successful execution of the plan with a reasonable time frame.

The scale of capacity being planned: insane

A car company that released their first car only 12 years ago making the manufacturing innovations they are (ginormous castings, chassis design innovations) that are moving at 10X the pace of companies that have been around for 10X as long a Telsa has: insane

A "car company" making advancements in ore refining that established refining companies haven't managed to do: insane

Managing to develop a "holy grail" silicon anode design that that has eluded countless others who have been working on this for years: insane

Developing a tabless cell design that simultaneously addresses power delivery, internal resistance, and cooling issues, when others have had a chance to do this for decades: insane

Implementing new continuous-movement cell manufacturing processes akin to other automated container lines: Ok, you got me there, impressive


Enjoy your victory, sir.

 

[Robocop]

Nobody has said that the $25k car would be produced in Germany/China and shipped to the US. It will be designed in Germany/China but manufactured where there is market for it.

Yeah I don't expect THREE $25k models. Surely whatever they come up with in China/Germany will make it here. Just too bad I'll be needing a Tesla long before they arrive. Oh well, guess I can settle for a Y.

 

[Mich]

Simulation confirmed

 

[OrthoSurg]

I disagree. To a technologist, it was insane. The problem is that there are very few technologists in the press.

The new cell technology is insane.
I see that and I’m not even an engineer. And I’m more impressed by it than my wife who happens to be an electrical engineer. Maybe because I am a Tesla fanboi or because I see it as an act of witchcraft. Lol