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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

bkp_duke

Well-Known Member
May 15, 2016
5,561
19,438
San Diego, CA
Why is Tesla cutting price? You think they can't sell 3/Y production from three factories at near current prices? Current range in USD is $35K to $60K. I expect their worse case plan is $30K to $60K.

This one is EASY to answer.

You are making the false assumption that Tesla wants to make as much money as possible. That's easy to understand, as that is the goal of just about every corporation.

Instead, Tesla's mission is to "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy". Elon has stated many times that as margins on cars improve, Tesla will lower the price on those cars so that they are affordable to more people.


It's a [email protected]#$%h for the traditional car companies to deal with a disruptor like this because the concept is completely foreign to them, and they base their "competitive models" on a startup wanting to make a certain profit percentage. Tesla is not run that way.

EDIT - Wall St. pundits ALWAYS misinterpret this move as a "lack of demand" for Tesla vehicles. The scale up in battery production is the clearest piece of evidence ever that there is no "demand problem" for Tesla vehicles.
 

S3XY

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 24, 2015
2,115
7,038
Buffalo, NY
To anybody who has been working on improving batteries, this was indeed very insane. That you can't see that isn't surprising.
I think the basic numbers should be apparent to anyone. 56% more this and 59% less that. The problem arises when the uninitiated hears the more technical (to them) mumbo jumbo and knowing whether any of that leads to the numbers presented. We're close enough to it that we understand after watching all of the youtubers explain different aspects of the battery improvements. But the average person wouldn't understand.
 
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Mo City

Active Member
Jul 17, 2016
1,910
11,883
near Houston
I am a value investor, so I think TSLA remains undervalued. Just watch, there will be >35% YOY growth for at least the next decade.
Do you mean Tesla or TSLA? If Tesla, annual growth will be near 100% the next 3-4 years then obviously taper off. It should average 50% (per Elon) over the next 10 years.

As for TSLA, it's anyone guess.
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
10,022
78,917
At home
From the short term perspective it is hard to imagine even Shanghai as being huge, after all they have not yet finished the factory nor is the Model Y being shipped. Generally auto producers are not rewarded in share price for anything much beyond couple of quarters. When there are three factories being built and the other three are undergoing major changes the future seems tentative to typical equity buyers.

When purportedly knowledgable people dismiss the Tesla revelations it is logical because they are totally "forward looking". Much of what is discussed does not yet exist anywhere are all. When viewing Tesla as an auto company the perspective clouds further because the last successful new auto company most of them know was Hyundai.

Despite that Tesla makes massive effort to hit quarterly records. Those may be critical, but it seems to me that the vast majority of the investors who have given TSLA a share price even Elon thinks might be too high are ones for which Battery Day, GF3, 4 and 5 are more relevant, as are new Chinese and German designs, Cybertruck and Semi. Even those popped rarely understand the role of TE, and Autobidder in particular.

Anyway, everyone, including me, obsesses over shipping schedules, sales in Slovenia and Iceland and counting vins. We'll not change those habits.

As investors we need to recognize that we expect AMZN-like long term and that is why we are in TSLA. In that context Battery Day, Design-Shanghai and Design-Berlin are the harbingers of value creation. The speed with which GF-3, GF-4, GF-5, colossal castings etc happen are the heralds of actual execution. In effect AMZN had AWS and TSLA has manufacturing. Neither of those will be understood by those who fail to study.

Finally, EPS is to be ignored by me. Those technology advances are my proof of value. I am a value investor, so I think TSLA remains undervalued. Just watch, there will be >35% YOY growth for at least the next decade.


Been a while since we talked about Norway, no? Well look, on track to have the biggest month, maybe quarter, since this time last year:

upload_2020-9-29_18-24-45.png
 

ZachF

Active Member
Mar 31, 2016
2,145
23,411
Park City, UT
As the price of electricity continues to decline due to scaling of solar, wind and batteries, electricity demand should grow more then the decline in fossil fuels. New businesses, new digitalization, more data centers, more AI, more Boring tunnels for high speed electric transportation will increase humans access to power. This should unleash massive productivity and wealth, especially to TSLA owners.

Oh yes I agree. But the comparison must be among similar outcomes.

Part of the reason the economy of the west has been kinda stagnant since the 1970s is because we hit the glass ceiling of fossil power.

Unlocking all of this new energy should give a boom of new growth for the US and the world.
 

ZachF

Active Member
Mar 31, 2016
2,145
23,411
Park City, UT
She couldn’t be more right.

the 2 world richest men, Jack Ma and Jeff Bezos are online resellers, they are not producing anyth8ng new, just offering an effective transaction platform and delivery system. For sure it adds value and facility in our daily lives but it is not changing the fundamental technology increment in the world.

Jack Ma is like the ~28th richest man.

And TBH, Jack Ma probably got there 100% from CCP connections... watch the interview he did with Musk. Musk clearly thinks he's a moron and is biting his tongue the whole time.
 

ReddyLeaf

Active Member
Mar 19, 2014
1,828
3,514
WA State
Energy isn't about selling hunks of batteries, it's going to be about holistic solutions you can plug right into your grid to decentralize and save money.

My assumption is there will be off-the-shelf solutions pairing megapacks with software and management services. One day your an inefficient and corrupt utility, the next you're a completely transparent and decentralized energy market.
Exactly! The Hornsdale battery has paid for itself in 2.5 years. This probably has the full attention of every utility in the world. When Tesla can produce enough batteries and finance these installations, like GE, then you will see enormous growth.
Hornsdale and its big Tesla battery exceed expectations as storage revenue surges
 

phantasms

Mr Self Destruct
Supporting Member
Jan 30, 2019
1,760
10,117
Westchester, NY & White Mountains, NH
Jack Ma is like the ~28th richest man.

And TBH, Jack Ma probably got there 100% from CCP connections... watch the interview he did with Musk. Musk clearly thinks he's a moron and is biting his tongue the whole time.

You knew Musk was thinking "hmm...I could call this guy out which would destroy Tesla's China prospects...hmm...worth it?...maybe"
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
2,026
7,379
Indialantic FL
"insane"?
I had not given the word much thought.
But now that I look back, the information provided did actually make me lose it. The first topic where they got in to the percentage improvement a discovery would have on the battery issues had me thinking that TESLA had made a huge leap. And I was ecstatic. I yelled to the wife in the other room how "Tesla had done it!" or some such nonsense.
And then Elon put another point and percentage up on the screen. And I had a little bit of a struggle to process how good it was, and what it meant with the first percentage....
And it snowballed from there. Halfway through the presentation I was intellectually spent. And also I was entering into the area of disbelief. I struggled with reality, or whatever the presentation was. My mind went began to question whether this was a "ShaM-wow" commercial (BTW he is still at it,
). I was unhappy with it all. What was Elon trying to do? This can't really be possible? (I really wanted him to do something on stage to prove the technology was beyond intellectual property. Like Kill an elephant!
And the issue of a demonstration should not be discounted by any of you. Repeatedly the "Battery Day" was delayed because "This needs to be seen in person" was the reason. And so? Where was the "in-person" part? Not a damn thing during the whole presentation was first person. There was NOTHING concrete. People travelled from all over the world to sit in a Model 3 by themselves and stare at other people like they were in rush hour traffic on an LA freeway.... So I was thinking, "They are going to SHOW us something." I mean actually show us.
Everything "Shown" at Battery Day could have been done much better in a packaged presentation just released on Youtube. Or a webcast.
So yeah, I lost the ability to believe all the "Wait there's more.." additional advancements/improvements. I started questioning myself AND(or) Elon. Is that insanity?
I think so. Which is kind of amusing now that I look back on it.
In the end you either sat there thinking, "I guess I'll believe Elon can do all that, whatever that is..." Or you were so big a fanboi to begin with that you are irrational, or you are so financially invested you don't have a choice as to what you believe.
But back to the point, So much was stated that it became difficult to believe or comprehend or understand... and if you tried to you became ?
 

zecar

Member
Nov 30, 2017
419
418
Chicago
This one is EASY to answer.

You are making the false assumption that Tesla wants to make as much money as possible. That's easy to understand, as that is the goal of just about every corporation.

Instead, Tesla's mission is to "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy". Elon has stated many times that as margins on cars improve, Tesla will lower the price on those cars so that they are affordable to more people.


It's a [email protected]#$%h for the traditional car companies to deal with a disruptor like this because the concept is completely foreign to them, and they base their "competitive models" on a startup wanting to make a certain profit percentage. Tesla is not run that way.

EDIT - Wall St. pundits ALWAYS misinterpret this move as a "lack of demand" for Tesla vehicles. The scale up in battery production is the clearest piece of evidence ever that there is no "demand problem" for Tesla vehicles.

"Smaller $25K car in three years". I'm paying attention to Musk. Not sure what you are doing, but I'm hearing the spaceship backup sound.
 
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Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,718
36,700
Deepening Crisis!
Exactly! The Hornsdale battery has paid for itself in 2.5 years. This probably has the full attention of every utility in the world. When Tesla can produce enough batteries and finance these installations, like GE, then you will see enormous growth.
Hornsdale and its big Tesla battery exceed expectations as storage revenue surges
Per to leadership at my current mid-large sized publicly traded utility client, they are actively planning for disruption from renewables, distributed energy, grid/home storage. I don't have any real details (probably couldn't share them if I did) but I find this heartening.
 

9837264723849

Member
Aug 24, 2014
984
4,351
France
As far as Elon is concerned, this manufacturing improvement and product improvements really are insane. To be able to cut down on gigafactories and water usage is a huge deal. Not to mention that this is probably going to play a bigger role in the scaling of Tesla than anything else to date.
IMO, most people and almost all the media don't actually care about industrial progress made specifically for the environment. They/we definitely care about negative things affecting the environment (fear!), but improvements that don't translate into immediate, individual benefits is mostly discarded -- however meaningful. This depresses me much, but I take comfort from the actions of organization like Tesla (and from ecologists who care deeply about mankind's hubris that brought us in today's nightmare... NB: Musk and these ecologists disagree and will fight on many things, but I trust Musk will listen to them at some point).
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
2,026
7,379
Indialantic FL
Sidebar to my above post...I also have come to accept that my idea about him constantly delaying Battery Day had nothing to do with "needing to be there." But instead was due to a constant stream of discoveries which were so close to the growing theme of Battery Day that a decision was made to delay battery day to include the various improvements.
But it also could have been because of technical issues with trying to resolve scalability issues within the manufacturing process as well as securing the materials and trying to work out partnerships and licensing with other companies.
It sure as hell wasn't because you needed to be there to experience it.
 

BriansTesla

Old school meets new tech
May 8, 2012
307
495
AI WA
The new cell technology is insane.
I see that and I’m not even an engineer. And I’m more impressed by it than my wife who happens to be an electrical engineer. Maybe because I am a Tesla fanboi or because I see it as an act of witchcraft. Lol
I believe one of the marks of true genius is when an idea seems obvious after it is presented. Even if the idea is not completely new, the application of a process or design can be revolutionary in it's effect. Example: The tabless cell design. Even if not completely original, the timing and the application of the design are genius. Faster production, better heat dissipation throughout the cell and less resistance. Why was this not used previously? No genius available.
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
2,026
7,379
Indialantic FL
Exactly! The Hornsdale battery has paid for itself in 2.5 years. This probably has the full attention of every utility in the world. When Tesla can produce enough batteries and finance these installations, like GE, then you will see enormous growth.
Hornsdale and its big Tesla battery exceed expectations as storage revenue surges
Hornsdale is in a unique climate, yes? there is something in the weeds about that "profit" that doesn't carry over to other countries/regions?
 

bkp_duke

Well-Known Member
May 15, 2016
5,561
19,438
San Diego, CA

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