Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ipe]

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.
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Why would you put it off? There’ll always be a new improvement to keep waiting for for the next ten years.

 

[Lycanthrope]

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.
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And then when you've waited for that there'll be something else coming to wait for. It's like a PC, iPhone, you can always wait for the next-best, and by the time you've waited it will already be "old".

Edit:

 

[Chunky Jr.]

wow, since it worked so well in Fremont, they must be anticipating so much demand at Giga Berlin that they're already building a tent for the overflow GA.

https://twitter.com/RalfThomas/status/1313958705021489152

 

[Singuy]

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.
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Those who are willing to wait probably doesn't need a car. I get waiting a few months for the next version but waiting a year +? That just means you either don't really need a new car or you are fine walking to work.

 

[cusetownusa]

I probably fall into that catergory...I don't really need a new car seeing how my car (9 years old) is serving its purpose perfectly fine. Nor am I in a rush to spend $50,000. I am going to be following the Texas factory closely and hoping that the new technology being rolled out at Berlin will be applied to the Texas factory. To me, the new 4680 battery cells, paint shop, etc. are worth waiting a year or 2 if needed.

But as you point out, if my car crapped the bed today then I would just pull the trigger now.

 

[ZachF]

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.
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Texas will probably be the second place to make 4680s after Kato, because Cybertruck and Semi both need them from day one. I wouldn't be surprised if the first 4680-power Berlin Ys use Texas-made cells.

Kato at 10GWh has enough capacity for the S,X and Roadster lines.

I suspect that 4680 adoption will follow a pattern like this.

Plaid S → Roadster → S, X → Cyber, Semi → Performance Y, 3 → Y, 3 → Model 2, Z(?)

Shanghai will probably be the last to get a 4680 line for IP protection purposes.

 

[Unpilot]

Except the day after battery day it drop down to $360ish or something at the opening. That is when I got in on Tesla stock for the first time. Wish I got in much earlier like most people here.

When I first popped into this thread around that time looking to buy some TSLA stock...the first response I got was good luck and expect to become addicted to this thread. Lol, so true...I spend way too much time here now.

You will be assimilated.

 

[Singuy]

Why anyone would still buy TSLA at the opening bell is beyond me. There is allmost always a better moment to get in, usually within fifteen to thirty minutes. You would expect every trader to be familiar with the (early) MMD by now.

Self fulfilling prophecy there.

Actually if you think about it, people are NOT buying at the opening bell, hence the MMD.

 

[Unpilot]

Pretty narrow channel we have been trading in.
I'm thinking we need the 3rd quarter report to light her off.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Big effort by the manipulators right now... Standard walk-down pattern...

 

[Todd Burch]

Another super-low volume today.

Feels like the whole market is just holding their breath waiting for the elections to be over.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Big effort by the manipulators right now... Standard walk-down pattern...

Super low volume once again. In such a slow market it's easy peasy for these guys to push down.

Can we get these Robinhood guys another stimulus check please!?!??!?? $600 goes into $1200 almost exactly 2x.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Texas will probably be the second place to make 4680s after Kato, because Cybertruck and Semi both need them from day one. I wouldn't be surprised if the first 4680-power Berlin Ys use Texas-made cells.

Kato at 10GWh has enough capacity for the S,X and Roadster lines.

I suspect that 4680 adoption will follow a pattern like this.

Plaid S → Roadster → S, X → Cyber, Semi → Performance Y, 3 → Y, 3 → Model 2, Z(?)

Shanghai will probably be the last to get a 4680 line for IP protection purposes.

Berlin will start production "next summer". My bet: end of Q1, early Q2 - even if customer deliveries take a month or two to begin like it happened in China. I don't think Texas will be ready to produce cells by then. If not locally made, these would be Fremont cells for Berlin not Austin imports.

 

[jbcarioca]

True, it is an addiction, but this thread I would put up against any group of research analysts in the world that cover TSLA. It's a rare opportunity to have access to information and analysis this good as a retail investor.

Yes! This is even more valuable because we are so adept at factchecking each other. It seems all of us make mistakes, but they become corrected quickly, and usually politely. Frankly I care less about others being polite when they correct me and more that they do so. This seems to be one of a very few public foraa in which I find such value.

 

[Paul_SF]

Texas will probably be the second place to make 4680s after Kato, because Cybertruck and Semi both need them from day one. I wouldn't be surprised if the first 4680-power Berlin Ys use Texas-made cells.

Kato at 10GWh has enough capacity for the S,X and Roadster lines.

I suspect that 4680 adoption will follow a pattern like this.

Plaid S → Roadster → S, X → Cyber, Semi → Performance Y, 3 → Y, 3 → Model 2, Z(?)

Shanghai will probably be the last to get a 4680 line for IP protection purposes.

Have you guys actually seen the buildings being built at Shanghai? You really think they are not planning to do the new batteries in the largest market AS FAST AS POSSIBLE?

I guess someone doesn’t really understand the sandbagging that Elon needs to do. It’s the biggest sandbagging in history!

 

[Lycanthrope]

Another super-low volume today.

Feels like the whole market is just holding their breath waiting for the elections to be over.

Stimulus I read earlier today, this is what they're waiting for, not so much the election... I note other tech stock have low volume too, it's no just $TSLA, just that $TSLA has the most active options market, so more to gain by the manips.

 

[Singuy]

Lol people here are not only gain addicts but volitality addicts. Certainly I guess we are all in the right stock.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Berlin will start production "next summer". My bet: end of Q1, early Q2 - even if customer deliveries take a month or two to begin like it happened in China. I don't think Texas will be ready to produce cells by then. If not locally made, these would be Fremont cells for Berlin not Austin imports.

Haven't Tesla got themselves some (relatively) small space nearby? Size compared to Kato Rd?

Perhaps 4680 cells will be produced near the Berlin Gigafactory a bit sooner? As long as yield is above a threshold and especially if testing finds bad cells straight away, it's worth getting cell lines going.

That might explain why cell production was taken out of Berlin Gigafactory plan - build them ahead of time at a temporary location, refine and put in extra lines (with a different footprint and design to original plan) at the Gigafactory. This allows Grohmann & ATW (?) engineers to start working now, relatively locally, really ironing the bugs out of it/increasing yield.

German 'Kato Rd'-sized facility can then switch to an automation improvement lab. Info fed back to USA in time for Texas opening.

 

[Singuy]

Haven't Tesla got themselves some (relatively) small space nearby? Size compared to Kato Rd?

Perhaps 4680 cells will be produced near the Berlin Gigafactory a bit sooner? As long as yield is above a threshold and especially if testing finds bad cells straight away, it's worth getting cell lines going.

That might explain why cell production was taken out of Berlin Gigafactory plan - build them ahead of time at a temporary location, refine and put in extra lines (with a different footprint and design to original plan) at the Gigafactory. This allows Grohmann & ATW (?) engineers to start working now, relatively locally, really ironing the bugs out of it/increasing yield.

German 'Kato Rd'-sized facility can then switch to an automation improvement lab. Info fed back to USA in time for Texas opening.

If Elon want to bring things close together, then I seriously doubt 4680 cell line will be in a separate building. Cell creation, then to pack, then to casted front and back, then to the rest of assembly. Everything will be in one line. I believe this is the reason why they want to reduce cell line production foot print as small as possible so it can be attached to the assembly line.

 

[AudubonB]

Yes! This is even more valuable because we are so adept at factchecking each other. It seems all of us make mistakes, but they become corrected quickly, and usually politely. Frankly I care less about others being polite when they correct me and more that they do so. This seems to be one of a very few public foraa in which I find such value.

WHAT THE ______ is a “FORAA”?????? Why doncha do some speeltchek like us do?

Wrote no nice Moderator ever.