Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Wow. We are on track for less than 50% of the average volume. That's really light.

 

[Mich]

Wow. We are on track for less than 50% of the average volume. That's really light.

do you mean at TMC or Nasdaq?

 

[Fobble]

On Benzinga:

Elon Musk Shares Tesla's Unibody Repair Strategy
10:22 am ET October 8, 2020 (Benzinga) Print

Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Model Y uses a new body, made of large single stamped pieces. This reduces weight, eliminates hundreds of parts, saves costs, and makes production faster. The question about collision repair is often asked.

Now, Elon Musk has shared how Tesla will tackle the problem of repairing one large structure in a car. The CEO says the crash absorption rails can be cut off and replaced with bolted-on pieces. Crash absorption rails are built into the car for the purpose of absorbing the energy of an impact. But in more serious accidents, other parts of the vehicle may be damaged as well.

The crash absorption rails can be cut off & replaced with a bolted part for collision repair

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wow. We are on track for less than 50% of the average volume. That's really light.

We would have been less than 50% the last two days if it wasn't for the macro dump on Tues and then the reactions to the tweets yesterday.

Someone mentioned above that the whole market is having light volume until the election which, while true, is nothing compared to how light Tesla's volume has been for weeks now.

 

[Todd Burch]

do you mean at TMC or Nasdaq?

Haha both!

 

[jbcarioca]

Berlin will start production "next summer". My bet: end of Q1, early Q2 - even if customer deliveries take a month or two to begin like it happened in China. I don't think Texas will be ready to produce cells by then. If not locally made, these would be Fremont cells for Berlin not Austin imports.

We do know that there are many moving parts in factory development in all locations, including Fremont, GF-1 and GF-2. Elon regularly makes cryptic comments about how crucial supplier planning is and how consequential supplier failures are. The logistics alone is mind-boggling, exacerbated because Tesla has very little Tier One style suppliers. Elon has alluded to ramp-up issues frequently.

My uninformed guess is that much of those problems ahem been diminishing now that Tesla is large enough and growing enough to attract the ver best supplier talent and attention, which was NOT true even three years ago. From my perspective the Shanghai startup performance has been stunningly good. Model Y launch has been a vast improvement over Model 3. Given that, it is not really surprising that Germany seems to be building out faster even than Chain and that Austin may be equally fast.

A key difference is that recruiting for China, Germany and Texas all are benefitting by large supplies of qualified people who are often not convinced their current employment is stable.
We need to find a way to quantify these issues from a P&L and Capex perspective. Capex efficiency is obviously one of the largest benefits of Elon-speed. The pace of materials innovation and factory innovation is producing transparently obvious cost reductions in CAPEX, materials costs, building speed and on to warranty costs. This all is true for every product category from TE to Superchargers to every vehicle.


In the short term several of us are stellar including @The Accountant @Mr Miserable @Papafox and dozens of others who have great insights in a vast variety of subjects.

Were we to be practicing our insights for public use we would be formidable. As it is we are generating highly profitable insights for each other.
Thanks to all of you from my family, accountants, lawyers, brokers and banks.

 

[UkNorthampton]

If Elon want to bring things close together, then I seriously doubt 4680 cell line will be in a separate building. Cell creation, then to pack, then to casted front and back, then to the rest of assembly. Everything will be in one line. I believe this is the reason why they want to reduce cell line production foot print as small as possible so it can be attached to the assembly line.

One cell line - for German production engineers to work on today and perfect for production lines (plural) in Gigafactory next year and feed back improvements to Kato Rd/USA/China in a period where German automation engineers can't easily get to USA. It's just down the road anyway. I can't find the location.

There are likely to be lots of automation engineers without work at the moment in Grohmann, ATW and elsewhere (so they can be recruited). Ideal time to get a test line up and running.

 

[jbcarioca]

WHAT THE ______ is a “FORAA”?????? Why doncha do some speeltchek like us do?

Wrote no nice Moderator ever.

You know that that is the correct plural form, thus you should have said "are" rather than "is a"
How to Use Fora vs. forums Correctly – Grammarist
You are correct that I did err by adding a redundant 'a'. Sorry

 

[Pezpunk]

On Benzinga:

Elon Musk Shares Tesla's Unibody Repair Strategy
10:22 am ET October 8, 2020 (Benzinga) Print

Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Model Y uses a new body, made of large single stamped pieces. This reduces weight, eliminates hundreds of parts, saves costs, and makes production faster. The question about collision repair is often asked.

Now, Elon Musk has shared how Tesla will tackle the problem of repairing one large structure in a car. The CEO says the crash absorption rails can be cut off and replaced with bolted-on pieces. Crash absorption rails are built into the car for the purpose of absorbing the energy of an impact. But in more serious accidents, other parts of the vehicle may be damaged as well.

The crash absorption rails can be cut off & replaced with a bolted part for collision repair

not gonna lie, that repair strategy sounds absurd. body shops are going to saw off chunks of the casted body, and bolt on new segments? i am very doubtful that will happen with any regularity or be remotely viable financially.

It's a good thing Teslas dont crash very often and will crash increasingly less often over time, because these battery structure and frame optimizations are reducing the modularity of the vehicle, and thus making it far more likely to be declared a total loss after an accident. the industry has been moving in that direction for a long time anyway, but these highly optimized designs exacerbate that trend to the extreme. ultimately it's a wonderful and revolutionary improvement, but decreased reparability is a legitimate downside.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

not gonna lie, that repair strategy sounds absurd. body shops are going to saw off chunks of the casted body, and bolt on new segments? i am very doubtful that will happen with any regularity or be remotely viable financially.

It's a good thing Teslas dont crash very often and will crash increasingly less often over time, because these battery structure and frame optimizations are reducing the modularity of the vehicle, and thus making it far more likely to be declared a total loss after an accident. the industry has been moving in that direction for a long time anyway, but these highly optimized designs exacerbate that trend to the extreme. ultimately it's a wonderful and revolutionary improvement, but decreased reparability is a legitimate downside.

More totaled vehicles, thus more battery packs for the DYI crowd.

 

[Todd Burch]

not gonna lie, that repair strategy sounds absurd. body shops are going to saw off chunks of the casted body, and bolt on new segments? i am very doubtful that will happen with any regularity or be remotely viable financially.

It's a good thing Teslas dont crash very often and will crash increasingly less often over time, because these battery structure and frame optimizations are reducing the modularity of the vehicle, and thus making it far more likely to be declared a total loss after an accident. the industry has been moving in that direction for a long time anyway, but these highly optimized designs exacerbate that trend to the extreme. ultimately it's a wonderful and revolutionary improvement, but decreased reparability is a legitimate downside.

It's very possible that the cast structure is stronger than the equivalent parts today, so an accident would probably already need to be fairly severe to damage it, meaning you're already going to have significant repair work in that type of accident anyway.

Yes, it's different. Yes, it might have problems. But that could be why nobody else has pursued it much. It may actually turn out to be better for the rare cases where there are heavy accidents.

Probably lots of engineers never fully considered the thought out fully--they hit the "that's a bad idea" block early on and their brain stopped. Often times, closed thinking is the only impediment to a revolutionary idea.

 

[ZeApelido]

Except the day after battery day it drop down to $360ish or something at the opening. That is when I got in on Tesla stock for the first time. Wish I got in much earlier like most people here.

When I first popped into this thread around that time looking to buy some TSLA stock...the first response I got was good luck and expect to become addicted to this thread. Lol, so true...I spend way too much time here now.

 

[hobbes]

wow, since it worked so well in Fremont, they must be anticipating so much demand at Giga Berlin that they're already building a tent for the overflow GA.

https://twitter.com/RalfThomas/status/1313958705021489152

View attachment 596499

Likely for equipment/machines coming before the actual buildings are ready. There was some painting equipent spotted in a hall just off the GF Berlin grounds a few weeks ago.

 

[Skryll]

not gonna lie, that repair strategy sounds absurd. body shops are going to saw off chunks of the casted body, and bolt on new segments? i am very doubtful that will happen with any regularity or be remotely viable financially.

It's a good thing Teslas dont crash very often and will crash increasingly less often over time, because ... .

...Harder to repair already on Model3. a friends P3D quarter panel damage resulted in $20k repair cost covered by the insurance. Absurd cost. That may be one of the inhibitors for use in police cars.

My hope is that tesla insurance creates the positive feedback loop to rectify the situation in the future.

When my M3 LR RWD got rear ended I had no chance to avoid the accident. These things will happen fairly frequently as long as human drivers are involved.

 

[Bobfitz1]

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.
View attachment 596492

My thinking is similar to yours. If MY with 4680 was 2 years out I'd buy soon and trade it in when the 'new' MY is available.
However I think there is a good chance Texas TF will be producing them by late next year. It's obviously true all Tesla models are better in some ways a year or two out. However the Texas produced 4680 MY isn't going to be incrementally better.
It will have less parts, less weight, better batteries, more range, more structural rigidity (pointed out by Sandy Munro) and better driving dynamics per Elon.

 

[ZeApelido]

True, it is an addiction, but this thread I would put up against any group of research analysts in the world that cover TSLA. It's a rare opportunity to have access to information and analysis this good as a retail investor.

Why thank you.

I am the Gordon Johnson of the group.

 

[ZeApelido]

Yes! This is even more valuable because we are so adept at factchecking each other. It seems all of us make mistakes, but they become corrected quickly, and usually politely. Frankly I care less about others being polite when they correct me and more that they do so. This seems to be one of a very few public foraa in which I find such value.

I see what you did there...

 

[joh01652]

I probably fall into that catergory...I don't really need a new car seeing how my car (9 years old) is serving its purpose perfectly fine. Nor am I in a rush to spend $50,000. I am going to be following the Texas factory closely and hoping that the new technology being rolled out at Berlin will be applied to the Texas factory. To me, the new 4680 battery cells, paint shop, etc. are worth waiting a year or 2 if needed.

But as you point out, if my car crapped the bed today then I would just pull the trigger now.

My 2003 Volvo was just fine, too, especially since I mostly bike/walk everywhere anyway. Still do.

But with accelerated climate change occurring before our eyes, and the massive amount of FUD thrown not just at Tesla but EVs and renewables in general, I pulled the trigger last year and got a 3 for no other reason than to support Tesla and a healthier planet; then this June I traded in for a Y. Best purchases of my life, zero regrets.

If you got a 9 year old EV, then great. But if you can afford a Tesla and want one, just get it. You could die from some terrible disease tomorrow; don't deny yourself the myriad pleasures of owning a Tesla if you don't have to. Life is too short as it is.

 

[UncaNed]

Texas will probably be the second place to make 4680s after Kato, because Cybertruck and Semi both need them from day one. I wouldn't be surprised if the first 4680-power Berlin Ys use Texas-made cells.

Kato at 10GWh has enough capacity for the S,X and Roadster lines.

I suspect that 4680 adoption will follow a pattern like this.

Plaid S → Roadster → S, X → Cyber, Semi → Performance Y, 3 → Y, 3 → Model 2, Z(?)

Shanghai will probably be the last to get a 4680 line for IP protection purposes.

What about the Plaid X? That's what I'm waiting for! Bought an X75D iin 2018, then bought a bit of TSLA... You can guess the rest of the story, so now I want to send a little something back to Tesla by buying a plaid X and discounting my used 2018 X to a friend.

 

[bkp_duke]

On Benzinga:

Elon Musk Shares Tesla's Unibody Repair Strategy
10:22 am ET October 8, 2020 (Benzinga) Print

Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Model Y uses a new body, made of large single stamped pieces. This reduces weight, eliminates hundreds of parts, saves costs, and makes production faster. The question about collision repair is often asked.

Now, Elon Musk has shared how Tesla will tackle the problem of repairing one large structure in a car. The CEO says the crash absorption rails can be cut off and replaced with bolted-on pieces. Crash absorption rails are built into the car for the purpose of absorbing the energy of an impact. But in more serious accidents, other parts of the vehicle may be damaged as well.

The crash absorption rails can be cut off & replaced with a bolted part for collision repair

Thanks for this. This question, having repaired 2 Model S's, was one of the biggest ones that I had.

This information needs to be soaked up by insurance companies, as it will have a direct impact upon insurance rates.