Even supposing this were true (see The TalkingMule's response)... I have to think the infrastructure changes are going to start kicking in by the time there are 30 million EVs on the road. Even though that's a small fraction of the existing fleet, gas stations were barely profitable to begin with (all the ones around here have added sandwich or donut shops to try to make money).
Certainly I'd expect stuff like interstate exits consolidating to 1 or 2 gas stations instead of 8 or 10...
But as you point out, EVs will still be a tiny fraction of TOTAL cars on the road at that point.
Let's consider just the US for a second... ~18 million new sales a year... but a fleet of ~280 million vehicles.
So you're talking 15.5 years to turn over the whole fleet on average, and that's if -100 percent- of new car sales were EVs ever year for 15.5 years.
In 2020 they're estimated to be what 3% maybe?
Dealerships will have to start weaning themselves off ICE maintenance and repairs... somehow?
I suspect for a while you'll see higher maintenance suggestions for legacy EVs (hell Teslas used to be higher too).
And again in the next 10 years the vast majority of the overall fleet on the road will still be ICE and still need the normal crap done to em.
Another good chunk of dealer $ comes from financing and that'll stick around.
But again long term like gas stations you'll end up seeing consolidation and shrinkage.... Maybe just 1 or 2 Ford dealers in an area instead of 5 and so on.
Highway taxes are going to need to be rethought.
Already happening- a number of states have pushed EV registration taxes to try and compensate for lost fuel revenue.
My own state has done so.... though the amount they're charging is still a fair bit less than I was paying in gasoline taxes (pre-covid).
Not to mention, a Tesla 5+ years from now and fuel efficiency requirements 5+ years from now are together going to leave ICE cars looking a lot less competitive
Well, the election will impact that second one a bit, certainly HOPE you're right on that though.
Still, it was an easier argument to make when gas was $4/gal instead of under $2 as it is currently. (and folks are still driving quite a bit less too)
Put all that together, I think it's going to start feeling like ICE is staring down a tsunami.
So whatever year EVs hit 30M, maybe there will still be 50M ICE cars sold, but what are they going to be? Will they continue to try to undercut Tesla on price, even if that means under $20K (considering a $25K EV with cost of ownership advantages)? Will they try to outclass Tesla (and perhaps Lucid) at the high end on luxury? (Too niche.) Will they be stupendous diesel models so they still have better towing range? Maybe all the biggest cars, Suburbans and Minivans, will stay ICE where an EV still can't be efficient enough in that form factor. I don't know, but I don't see the 50M being the meaty middle of the market. If they lose pickups, what large and profitable segments are left other than big SUVs?
Goes back a bit to who is supplying the other 10 million EVs.... If Ford manages to get a successful, profitable, electric F-150 out there they can probably still keep kicking out $15,000 fiestas to undercut 25k EVs too.
If GM has a successful and profitable EV Hummer maybe they can do the same.
Or maybe they both fail and Rivian is suddenly the second biggest american car company after Tesla in 2030?
When 30M EVs are sold, isn't everyone buying an ICE by then going to grit their teeth and bear it, not hold their head up with pride?
Aren't the OEMs going to be doing the math... collectively we sold 50M ICE this year... from the EV factories ramping around us and the demand we're seeing in the market, looks like that will be 35M ICE next year and 15M ICE the year after... um, I'll take that golden parachute now please?
As I said- there'll be consolidation.
There's 20 major car companies right now (sold more than 1 million vehicles annually)- Tesla's not there yet but will be in 2022 with the 50% YoY math (could be 2021 by it'd be a hell of a ramp at 3 factories)
Anyway of those 20
5 of em are Chinese companies...6 are Japanese... 5 are European... 3 American (one half American being FCA), and the remaining one is South Korean.
Wait, actually, PSA (peugeot citroen) is merging with FCA, so that's already down to 19.
And realistically 17 as Nissan, Mitsubishi, and Renault have been cross-owned in an alliance for a while now.
Now among those companies, is roughly 83ish million cars sold.
But 1/4 of that is just the top 2 (Toyota and VW)...and 1/2 are the top 5 (those 2 plus Hyundai/Kia, GM, and Ford)
Some won't make it. Maybe most won't.
Some probably will though.
Remains to be seen who.
That is not remotely what he said. It was:
Basically implying exponential growth turns the whole market over somewhere between 2026 and 2030.
30M in 2027
40M in 2028
60M in 2029
Etc.....
My apologies. He cited 2030 as the date Tesla would "probably" hit 20 million itself prior to.
Let's say they hit it in 2029. Whom do you believe would be making the other 40 million EVs in your forecast above?
Because right now Tesla is making more EVs than anyone else by a wide margin.
And THEY only hit 20 million in 2030 if they maintain 40-50% YoY unit sales growth every year for 10 years (~45% annual) from 2020 numbers gets you there).
So given everyone else is starting much smaller they need even higher/faster unit growth in EVs, every year for a decade, to get there.
Which other companies do you see actually doing that rather than dragging their feet like they have been and forcing tens of millions into new ICE vehicles because there's still not 80 million new EVs to replace the 80 million ICE cars sold a year?
