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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

NooB_cat

Member
Sep 4, 2020
87
706
England
yep it’s up now in the UK I have been on this for 3 weeks.

Did you already have solar & powerwall installed?
Apart from the great environmental reasons (!) I'm struggling to find the cost benefit over a 10 year period, as it would save me around £800 per year and cost around £11-13k to get solar and a powerwall. It'd be great to hear your thoughts on the cost side?? Cheers!
 
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UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
767
6,867
Northampton, England
To be fair, it’s not all that clear to me how far Tesla’s active involvement extends in this.
This is an Octopus Energy tariff. I’m one of their customers (not on this tariff, I don’t qualify as I live in a flat, so no solar), and they’ve had 100% green energy plans since the beginning — which is the reason we switched to them; well, that and the fact they have some of the lowest tariffs on the market — and they’ve also been promoting Tesla for a couple of years.
Now, in the UK things are a bit different than in other parts of the world: the energy supplier that a domestic consumer signs a supply contract with is not the actual electricity producer; rather, each supplier buys the electricity wholesale and sells it to the domestic customers at a set tariff. But the actual, physical supply (connection to the grid) is provided by the National Grid. Which makes switching easy: you just pay for your electricity to a different company, but there’s no physical change.
And so I’m curious as to whether Tesla is actively contributing (logistics, possibly?) to this new tariff, or it’s simply Octopus running the numbers and concluding that it makes sense from a business perspective to offer this bundle. It’s definitely good for Tesla in that it incentivises sales of the solar retrofit and Powerwall products, but other than that, does Tesla do anything?

Edit to add: This tariff seems to have been available for at least one year now, but Tesla only applied for certification as an energy utility this summer, so this would confirm that it’s run by Octopus, while Tesla might contribute on the technical side (Powerwall live data, etc.).

(all from memory)

Yes, it predates Tesla being certified in UK. It does require Tesla to manage your Powerwall(s).

Octopus have Kraken, which is their alternative to Autobidder.

Octopus have said their next markets to enter are Germany and Austraila (not Austria).
 

Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,682
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Deepening Crisis!
Did you already have solar & powerwall installed?
Apart from the great environmental reasons (!) I'm struggling to find the cost benefit over a 10 year period, as it would save me around £800 per year and cost around £11-13k to get solar and a powerwall. It'd be great to hear your thoughts on the cost side?? Cheers!
I'm not sure if it matters so much in the UK, but a powerwall also provides backup power in the event of outages. Worth factoring in.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,783
18,848
NC
Cost a ton more? Seriously? The PowerWall is $7K for 13.5 kWh. Or $39K for 75 kWh. For 20% more you could have a whole LR AWD car around a battery that size. (Somehow I think all the Model 3 except the battery is worth more than $8K.)


Well your first problem is the model 3 doesn't actually support V2G. So if trying to stand in for powerwall you're paying $39k for 0 kWh.

But even if some future Tesla DOES support it- you're looking at:

$39,000- and I can't drive anywhere with it if I want to keep the fridge on (and keeping it on reduces how far I CAN drive of course)

or

7k and I can still use the car as a car... (or just keep $32.5k dollars in TSLA stock if I already have a car)


That's without including that many places end up with PWs costing a LOT less due to various incentive programs (which some states also do still have for cars too- but generally rebating a much smaller % of their total cost)

The other thing is you're likely to be looking at lower PW prices too by the time the BD stuff ramps up enough to produce new models of Teslas that support V2G- so the math probably gets even worse for using a car instead of a PW.
 
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Sudre

Active Member
May 30, 2012
1,056
6,767
Interesting moves in options between yesterdays OI and today.
Max Pain is obviously not the listed $420. See what you can make of this tight range being created.

MONDAY morning...
10 MON OI closeup.png


Tuesday morning.... lots of 420 Calls sold Mon. I think max pain has moved up. $425 is almost dead even then high 430 Calls.
20 TUE OI closeup.png


I am going with $425 for now but if THEY sell more 430 PUTs to even that out then THEY are going higher. We shall see tomorrow.
The illusion says we close above $425. That is never a sure thing. This animal is just moving with the macros lately. It seems like it wants to break out.

PUTs seem like the item on sale yesterday so THEY might actually try to close this higher than lower this time.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,783
18,848
NC
The biggest problem with such a "crazy" valuation is that for Tesla to become that large it will have run into anti-trust issues far before the 40T point. There are plenty of people that have pitch forks ready for Amazon today and they aren't anywhere close to that large.


That concern I don't really get...

Elons most optimistic predictions for vehicle production in 2030 are 20 million units.

That's still less than 1/4 of the annual new car market.

Sub-25% market share is not a monopoly in any sense of the word, let alone the legal one.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,749
77,875
Maple Falls, WA
With the numerous market Tesla is addressing, I have no hesitation to say I give a 95% probability of TSLA reaching a 2T market cap by 2030. However 40T is over the Golden Goose modelling.

I tend to agree. 40T will probably take another 2-4 years more than the Golden Goose modelling projects.

Life has a way of throwing curveballs like that! :(
 

Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,682
35,834
Deepening Crisis!
That concern I don't really get...

Elons most optimistic predictions for vehicle production in 2030 are 20 million units.

That's still less than 1/4 of the annual new car market.

Sub-25% market share is not a monopoly in any sense of the word, let alone the legal one.
20 million units is fine, but how does Tesla get to a 40 trillion dollar valuation without being completely dominant in several industries? Am I missing the path to that valuation?

It's not a concern of mine really, if Tesla gets broken up that means I'll have been already quite wealthy. It's just something that makes such a valuation seem impossible.
 
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StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,749
77,875
Maple Falls, WA
The biggest problem with such a "crazy" valuation is that for Tesla to become that large it will have run into anti-trust issues far before the 40T point. There are plenty of people that have pitch forks ready for Amazon today and they aren't anywhere close to that large.

There will always be a contingent of people who despise success and who will call large successful and innovative companies a monopoly and try to have them brought down.

Fortunately, in America, we don't outlaw bonafide monopolies, we outlaw monopolistic bullying. Taking unfair advantage of a dominate position to stifle innovation and competition. That is a distinction that flies right over the head of people who hate wealth and success.

I'll say it again, because some people don't seem to get it: In America, monopolies are not illegal (and they never have been).
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,749
77,875
Maple Falls, WA
20 million units is fine, but how does Tesla get to a 40 trillion dollar valuation without being completely dominant in several industries? Am I missing the path to that valuation?

Why do you think Tesla couldn't become dominant in several industries?
Tesla's innovation and economic efficiency is exactly what we need to reverse the declining standard of living we have witnessed over the last couple of decades.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,749
77,875
Maple Falls, WA
There are plenty of people that have pitch forks ready for Amazon today and they aren't anywhere close to that large.

America does not recognize mob rule. We have a judicial system that operates by rule of law. Amazon would have to be found guilty of using unfair business practices to stifle competition in order to be broken up.
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,959
6,633
Indialantic FL
on a lighter note...
"
Update—Tesla Short Shorts (order 1252116)
We appreciate your patience and excitement as we work diligently to get Tesla Short Shorts to you.
As an update, we will begin deliveries of this product starting this week. Once your order has shipped, you will receive an email confirmation with your tracking number.
We expect all deliveries to be completed within the next several weeks. Should you have any questions, feel free to reply to this message.
As always, thanks for your continued support.


Inbox
 

Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,682
35,834
Deepening Crisis!
Interesting to see that my short shorts may be delivered this week.

America does not recognize mob rule. We have a judicial system that operates by rule of law. Amazon would have to be found guilty of using unfair business practices to stifle competition in order to be broken up.
Ehh, not sure I agree there. People pressure politicians and those guys only care about their own interest, not what's right.

But the important bit in all this is really, do you think a 40T valuation is possible? I do think Tesla will dominate several industries, but wouldn't that require complete ownership of auto, insurance, and energy? And believe me, I don't enjoy being wrong, but I'd love for you to call me in 10 years and laugh at me for doubting this. ;)
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,749
77,875
Maple Falls, WA
Sub-25% market share is not a monopoly in any sense of the word, let alone the legal one.

Illegal behavior is not defined by market share. That's simply a measure of how popular a companies products are. Anti-trust law regulates corporate behavior and business practices, not market share percentages.
 

ggies07

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 8, 2012
3,879
7,437
DFW
This could go into several different threads, but I think it should be in here to get the most exposure since this directly affects Tesla's mission statement:

Trump administration buries dozens of clean energy studies – InvestigateWest

Documents obtained by InvestigateWest identify at least 46 reports from almost every program within the U.S. Energy Department’s energy efficiency and renewables office and seven national labs that have been stalled, downgraded or spiked.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,783
18,848
NC
20 million units is fine, but how does Tesla get to a 40 trillion dollar valuation without being completely dominant in several industries? Am I missing the path to that valuation?

40T is a ridiculous fantasy number roughly double the entire US GDP.

It's why I referenced back to the # of annual vehicles produced by Elon for 2030 to ground things a bit.

Even if they had comparable market shares of both the auto insurance and energy markets by then you wouldn't be anywhere remotely near 4T in value, let alone 40.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,783
18,848
NC
Illegal behavior is not defined by market share. That's simply a measure of how popular a companies products are. Anti-trust law regulates corporate behavior and business practices, not market share percentages.


They absolutely consider market share under US law.

Monopolization Defined

FTC said:
Courts look at the firm's market share, but typically do not find monopoly power if the firm (or a group of firms acting in concert) has less than 50 percent of the sales of a particular product or service within a certain geographic area. Some courts have required much higher percentages


25% is, obviously, well short of 50.

Nothing in the other aspects discussed or defined there could reasonably applied to a company with a 25% market share either.

Though certainly if you can cite any US court cases decided against a company or group acting in concert with a 25% (or even close to that) market share on anti-trust grounds I'm open to them.
 

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