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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

computerchuck

Supporting Member
Apr 20, 2017
324
1,249
Utah
First, apologies for me being slow on this.

CNBC reports from Biden Covid advisor that he recommends 4 to 6 week national shutdown to control the pandemic. I'm only interested in a discussion as it concerns the SP of TSLA. Do I need to repeat that?? :D:D:D

My thoughts that if it does happen Macros will tumble, and TSLA will drop 2x to 5x that. :(

I want to be prepared for that possibility.

Obviously we would HODL. Always HODL. But I'm not only a long term investor, but a small time trader as well. Thinking I may play a couple of CCs at the end of Jan.
 

dl003

Active Member
Nov 22, 2019
1,435
12,426
Texas
First, apologies for me being slow on this.

CNBC reports from Biden Covid advisor that he recommends 4 to 6 week national shutdown to control the pandemic. I'm only interested in a discussion as it concerns the SP of TSLA. Do I need to repeat that?? :D:D:D

My thoughts that if it does happen Macros will tumble, and TSLA will drop 2x to 5x that. :(

I want to be prepared for that possibility.

Obviously we would HODL. Always HODL. But I'm not only a long term investor, but a small time trader as well. Thinking I may play a couple of CCs at the end of Jan.
I wouldn't worry too much about that. If it happens, it will only happen after TSLA's reported Q4 ER, which will be massively massive.
 

computerchuck

Supporting Member
Apr 20, 2017
324
1,249
Utah
Could just be momentum trading. People dumping Tsla because the volatility are with ev start ups. The first person to pull the rug from those companies will have people rushing back into tsla. I think S&P inclusion will crush nio stocks.

I think TSLA has already crushed NIO, and will continue to do so, regardless of this sideways SP movement.

But I tend to agree with @Lycanthrope that S&P inclusion will give a temporary bump up in SP, but then recover to norms. It would be a nice short term option play when it does, but in the grand scheme, it won't matter IMO. That's of course if S&P happens. :rolleyes:

I couldn't care less if it does. :cool: Hail @Krugerrand ;)
 
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mikevbf

Supporting Member
Feb 11, 2012
1,856
4,331
vermont
First, apologies for me being slow on this.

CNBC reports from Biden Covid advisor that he recommends 4 to 6 week national shutdown to control the pandemic. I'm only interested in a discussion as it concerns the SP of TSLA. Do I need to repeat that?? :D:D:D

My thoughts that if it does happen Macros will tumble, and TSLA will drop 2x to 5x that. :(

I want to be prepared for that possibility.

Obviously we would HODL. Always HODL. But I'm not only a long term investor, but a small time trader as well. Thinking I may play a couple of CCs at the end of Jan.

It's important to read the whole article:

In an interview with NBC News on Thursday, Osterholm clarified his comments, saying “it was not a recommendation. I have never made this recommendation to Biden’s group. We’ve never talked about it.”

“My only point was if we are going to keep making restrictions state-by-state, there is no compensation for the businesses that are being impacted,” he added. “What we’re doing right now is not working.”

A Biden transition official told NBC News that a shutdown “is not in line with the president-elect’s thinking.”
 

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
677
6,334
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
First, apologies for me being slow on this.

CNBC reports from Biden Covid advisor that he recommends 4 to 6 week national shutdown to control the pandemic. I'm only interested in a discussion as it concerns the SP of TSLA. Do I need to repeat that?? :D:D:D

My thoughts that if it does happen Macros will tumble, and TSLA will drop 2x to 5x that. :(

I want to be prepared for that possibility.

Obviously we would HODL. Always HODL. But I'm not only a long term investor, but a small time trader as well. Thinking I may play a couple of CCs at the end of Jan.
Oh...Sort of like a investor version of PHEV vis-a-vis a BEV.
 

djy

Member
Feb 4, 2013
29
342
Santa Barbara
Why are they pushing Tesla down and not all the other EV stocks? Nio's market cap has surpassed Tesla's when 10 days after Tesla produced their 1 millionth car.

Chinese EV stocks started dropping after this Citron report came out, downgrading Nio to $25 price target based on not being able to stay competitve with Tesla pricing.
 

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Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
11,579
15,563
NC
You really hedged that statement in a massive way!

Personally, I only expect massive demand for robo-taxis. Not massive, massive, massive demand. Because that would be exceedingly, exceedingly, exceedingly bullish.



Well, it's a pretty wide target is the thing.

You have many folks convinced every tesla with FSD will be able to earn it's owners $30,000 or whatever per year in RT income

One pretty well known (and well sued) Friend of Elon before his most recent twitter account was deleted was telling folks they'd get their cybertruck essentially free by buying FSD and using it as a robotaxi.

Even worse folks were both projecting huge profit from Tesla running THEIR OWN RTs (all those leases you can't buy at the end were stated to be slated for that for example) and yet somehow all owners could ALSO run their car as RTs too, all of em!


I think those are pretty ridiculous claims because there's not infinite demand for RTs, and on or before 2030 Tesla will be selling 10 times more cars in one year than there's currently taxis AND rideshare vehicles on the road in the US for example.

Now if someone's claim is RTs will replace all those existing taxis and rideshare cars? That's easily believable- outside of maybe some third world situations where charging isn't up to snuff yet I'd expect them to replace all non robo taxis everywhere else in the world and fairly quickly.

I'd also expect the total #s to be somewhat higher than present as some households decide they don't need to keep a 2nd or 3rd car around because they can use an RT if they REALLY need a spare ride once in a blue moon instead of paying insurance on a car that sits parked most of the time.


But nowhere near the amount of them some folks seem to think.

And all that is only once there actually are Tesla RTs, which again you find....very wide ranges...of opinions on when (or for some even if) that's happening.


All of which makes it very challenging to consider as an investor.


The good news of course is even if RTs never, ever, ever, happen, there's still a slew of other massive upsides to owning TSLA, so you can value it a $0.00 and still find a myriad of reasons to invest in and own it.



And I'm only very bullish. :p


Speaking of I reinvested some of my sold CC money into doubling my 390 Feb 19 2021 calls since they were even more on sale this morning than when I first bought... can't imagine those don't turn out pretty well after both Q4/YE deliveries and earnings.... (though possibly given recent patterns ideal time to sell em will be in between those two)
 

kanweg

Member
Jun 11, 2020
398
3,219
Europe
Lycanthrope wondered what the purpose was of the current bound stock price. Wild hypothesis: It is to bore (RH) retail investors out of their shares. If the SP stays flat, the crowd that bought Tesla shares because they were hot will lose interest, and switch to Neo or something.

The volume is low. But does that mean there aren’t any buyers? Not necessarily I think. We would have to know the flow of shares. Suppose 25 million shares are traded daily, 1 million of which are dumped by bored retail investors every day. Then after 20 working days, 20 million shares have been collected, or about $8B if my head serves me right. Is this more than a drop in the bucket once index funds have to buy in the exceptional case that Krugerrand is wrong?

This hypothesis can be tested. I believe the number of (Tesla) shares held by RH investors are public. Is there a sizable trend of a renewed number of Tesla shares held by them? (I tried to find data but could only find something for up to September).
 

Tim S

Supporting Member
Feb 5, 2019
803
7,792
Albany NY
A story in the local paper today about activists pushing New York State pension funds to divest from fossil fuel stocks. That would free up a lot of money (billions) to invest in the green economy.

"they believe divestment is an effective way to help society make the shift from fossil fuels to renewable and green energy sources, author and climate activist Bill McKibben said."

Activists say New York teachers retirement fund should sell off oil, gas stocks
 

TSLA Pilot

Active Member
Mar 12, 2013
1,689
2,316
United States
Another 200 shares at $405, only because I missed the recent dip below $400. Will buy more as long as the "Elon's Got COVID" Sale continues . . . all on margin but that's because there no more spare change under in the couch cushions. (It's been working out very well for years now; YMMV.)

But: I really need to be investigating options as I've been out of them ever since I got called out on some covered calls some five years ago. Yeah, I got to buy the shares back later but it's put the kibosh on options ever since. Something about burning your hand on the stove IIRC!
 

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